Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Not sure which Candy we are dealing with at MTL but this has just been released

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8643591/Property-tycoon-Nick-Candy-selling-63-metre-superyacht-54million.html

If Mark Child really wants a higher share price he needs to stop issuing warrants that remain a drag on the price - if he thinks the company is so undervalued he needs to make the strike price far higher or not issue warrants with every fund raise.

There was no need to issue warrants with the last raise, the sector was in a bull phase, I am surprised larger holders do not challenge him on this topic. He thinks the company is significantly undervalued but issues dilutive warrants at stupid levels.

A question for him at the next event for certain.

The jungle drums seem to be suggesting September will be the month of action at AST, we will see, if there is some increasing volume then that will be a clue.

Parsons has implied he will come out of radio silence in the same month.

I have to say I have been particularly disappointed by this new BOD, they need to start delivering something beyond discounted placings and a falling share price.

I suppose every dog will have it's day at some point.

Interesting they are pursuing over £1m - that is not in the share price at all is it.

Link below

http://tinyurl.com/y2ud554l

The shares are due an up move based on a number of factors, the market has not reacted well to the 2 recent Turkish Royalty sales, but this is small beer compared to the possible uplift coming from Iamgold's drilling results at Fare in Senegal on Oriole's licence - shares have fallen from the recent .55p high but have been up to .65p in the last 12 months.

A great buy in opportunity ahead of a meaningful news period, Iamgold drilling results could come in September, news on new licences in Cameroon, drilling operations starting in Cameroon, updates on Thani Stratex investments, further news concerning asset sales all expected within the next 2-3 months.

Shares are oversold on a technical basis with the RSI at a 4 month low and has bounced 3 times from this level within the last 12 months, in two cases the shares added over 50%.

DYOR etc

It seems the shares will be de-listed on 8th September, an extension can only be agreed if the major shareholders come to agreement on a number of matters.

It is in the major shareholders interests to come to an agreement, they stand to lose the most, their equity stakes will have risen in value significantly because of the gold price rise and a sector bull period. Do they want to lose that material gain ?

A delisting will result in minorities losing their investment, even if a relisting comes further down the line it could take 12-18 months, what will sector conditions be like then? If the minorities lose out it is very likely this will attract negative media attention and could put at risk the Mining Licence.

The Green environmentalist's will use any excuse to try to suspend mining operations, the Mining Licence is very vulnerable, the major shareholders MUST come to an agreement urgently, I am sure minorities will support a reasonable and fair proposal.

It is simply down to the major shareholders from here, a proposition is needed urgently.

Noticed CRCL featured on Sharetalk a few moments ago - short term target 1.8p

https://www.share-talk.com/share-talk-bulletin-board-heroes-friday-14th-august-2020/#gs.cv3a6d

I beg to differ, this is not Regency Mines, they have a completely new management team except for one person. Take a look at the recent presentation, Grid connection at the Burwell power project is imminent + they talk about M&A & Strategic Investors by end of this quarter.

The folk who seem to delight in ****ging down the proposition are using stale material.

I have to say I had reservations about this company but I admit I was wrong, it does seem a very decent investment proposition.

The recent presentation seems to have impressed the market and from a very low (sub £2m) base a re-rate is ongoing.

I see no reason why this cannot return to 3p or maybe even 4p, with only 190m shares issued that is still only £6m or £8m market valuation. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It is essential for the major shareholders to reach agreement before the deadline. If there is no deal there is every possibility THEY could lose their entire investment, amounting to 10's of millions of dollars of loans and their entire equity stakes.

Clearly there are entities who are anti mining (Greens) these entities will use any means possible to stop mining or even try to close down mining operations for good.

The link below shows that Metals Exploration are subject to continued scrutiny, the company has gone out of it's way on environmental issues and has good standing locally. If the company remains financially hamstrung or is subject to media attention, such as losing it's Stock Exchange listing or media picking up on shareholder disputes it will offer the naysayers more oxygen to pursue their ultimate objectives.

https://manilastandard.net/mobile/article/330693

The only way future 'noise' concerning MTL can be avoided is sorting out the financial position ASAP, time is running out.

Major shareholders take note, do not underestimate the volatile environment which mining companies operate in, licences can be withdrawn at will, politics does come into play.

Get a deal done to avoid unnecessary and potentially detrimental media coverage which will surely come if the matter is not resolved, it is in YOUR interests.

According to the new presentation material news is expected, this includes Grid connection at one of the power units and what they describe as M&A and the introduction of cornerstone investors all before end September.

Explains the buying interest.

It looks a decent proposition IMO.

https://www.corcelplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Corcel-Investor-Presentation-Q3-2020.pdf

Have topped up, to good to miss.

Thanks for the replies, there is a fair bit of commentary around on the increasing prices of Iron Ore and the fact that ZIOC seems undervalued, few mention the finance, my view is we will get a break from the dumping (possibly at the Co's request as per the deal conditions) as such I think the shares will start to recover.

This company has a pretty low cash burn so I would imagine the 1st round of funding will give them enough cash for the time being.

I would not be surprised to see these trading 8p-9p range soon enough based on the above scenario.

Can anyone comment over the 1st round of funding, 7m shares have to be sold in the market or found homes outside the market by Shard.

However this is dressed up by management it is simply another death spiral proposition, did folk really believe Shard would find buyers via their client bank, maybe some shares have gone that way but market selling of 100k batches has been apparent.

I suspect we are drawing to a close of the first funding round, I also suspect the share price will be allowed to recover from the current bombed out level.

I have viewed many such arrangements and there is always a significant bounce back once the dumping stops as market entities move in like vultures to take advantage of the technical bounce, this can sometimes be 50%+

Can anyone confirm the 1st round is near complete, it is 6 weeks since the deal was announced, assume an average 200k shares dumped per day would equate to 6m out of the 7m required to be shifted.

Now is a decent entry point for a trade in my view.

Can see a very decent move coming here this week, already nothing available on-line and a premium being asked for small lines of stock.

This remains materially undervalued to peer groups.

As we reach a crucial period I believe it might be worthwhile to try and place a value on MTL right now had the stock been trading on the open market.

Obviously the debt situation makes it hard to deliver a like for like peer group comparison but I would like to try and demonstrate that the upside for the major shareholders equity positions will far outweigh the money they have loaned the company and the price they paid to buy the bank debt.

So let us assume, based on a number of assumptions and historic data, the major shareholders have injected actual cash of £50m into MTL (this ignores the penal interest on the mezzanine debt)

Also bear in mind that operational performance at the mine was improving and historically the company has been hamstrung by lack of funding which has hindered both operations and exploration.

The nearest comparison I can find via the market is Anglo Asian Mining (LSE:AAZ) they are producing circa 80,000 oz of gold a year at a cost of around $700oz - a target MTL could attain and possibly exceed under normal operation performance.

Anglo Asian hit £1.70p this week which values them around £175m - it is not unreasonable for MTL to attain such a market value or even exceed it. Gold is forecast to go higher still remember.

It seems obvious that the major shareholders will benefit far more from their equity positions than the money they have injected historically, surely they must recognise this. It is essential for them to reach agreement on the outstanding matters ASAP, losing the Stock Exchange listing will be costly, exceptionally time consuming and drawn out if they wish to have it restored - many examples show 12-18 months is the norm.

The equity 'value' based on Candy's current stake (based on a EV of £125m) would be circa £80m and Edwards would be £35m, the loans could be recovered from operational cash-flow, this assumes MTL would reach a £175m market valuation upon lifting the suspension or around 8p a share.

I believe the market would value MTL in that range, there is also the potential for the company to be bought out, this would further enhance the major shareholders financial position should bid speculation arrive.

In conclusion, in my view, it is obvious the equity value of the major shareholders stakes is far greater than the actual money they have put in to support the company, they have a great CEO plus a decent on ground team, what is there not to like.

One final aspect, recent brokers have started to upgrade gold producers market valuation targets, I believe at Anglo Asian the new target in IRO £220m and not the £175m I have used here.

If they do not reach an agreement it is, in my considered opinion, just plain stupid given the current dynamics of the sector.

Register to join next Tuesdays webinar at 6pm on this link

https://www.bigmarker.com/share-talk/Share-Talk-Presents-and-Investor-Webinar-and-Q-A-with-Condor-Gold-PLC

I think the webinar planned next week with Sharetalk and Zak Mir will give Condor a new audience and should bring new buyers in.

At some point sentiment will turn but it needs meaningful news to do it, on the last Conference Call the CEO said they were advancing the 'Special Situation' proposal at pace and news would be forthcoming.

I can only assume, given Align has provided a unsecured loan, that they are close to the completing a deal, sub £2m m/cap it does seem a great entry point for new investors - had it not been for legacy issues and the wretched treatment by the Slovenian authorities Ascent would be trading far far higher.

So those making the noise BUY the shares !