Member Info for harel

My assumption is corona will affect the markets for at least another 12 months and the second crisis of the "real" economy will stay longer.
That doesnt change the fact that orinduik is a jewel, and on a discovery will produce only in 5 years.
Exxon and hess both confirmed no cuts in the guyana operations and tlw confirmed its surinam project still on, the race of the majors is for a 10 years target and that is to get as much projects as they can with a 35$< break even and guyana is the place that has the amount of low break even reserves.
F/o will probably be with total and QP.

Imho,
No leak just good old manipulation, we had a few of these the last few months.
Not saying the fundamentals arent there to support a move once completed but thats not a leak.
Btw, some here like to chellenge every assumption i make so nice to see someone from rre value our 2p reserves at 3-5$ when i valued it in a t/o scenario (in response to a Q, i dont believe in that scenario) for 2$ pre crisis and have been called ramper.

I3e will complete a secondery listing by the end of april which will increase the demand, by then i would expect they will keep promoting like they are doing the last week and will release a new presentation and might even complete the first farm out of 20-25% securing the serenity campaign keeping the golden egg of the second farm out for post listing. (just a speculation).

So i am more bullish and more bearish than you, i think the deal i speculated is rre-repsol making an amazing deal, and a good deal for i3e delivering a world class economics project with 20$ breakeven (now brent is 28$).
Lets not forget serenity can take the production costs down around 8$ a barrel with the bleoholm working at full capacity.
Saying that, i not sure we can hit the 20p so fast on a deal especialy at the current markets situation.

As we know both rre and repsol are in discussions with i3e and even if more are interested the common interests are to significant to let go.
The 19km pipeline to serve both fields and the jv using the bleoholm is the game changer here.
My opinion is that i3e is putting 50% on the table.
The dolphin deal leaves 40% though they will repay dolphins carry to keep it, but for now i would guesstimate rre and repsol will take 20% each for about 15-20m$ each.
Such deal will leave i3e with about 50m$ of carry&cash and a 35m$ costs.

I think year to year eco got one of the best multy bagger potential, on a successfull outcome of next years drill we look at 15p to 200p in a year, or pre drill 15p to 60p.
Right now eco is short of short term catalysts and will keep trading at this level, 10p is my green light to top up.
I think tullow will farm out 30% of orinduik in the second half followed by drilling final decision set to 1H 2021.
Eco is funded and debt free and that makes it a good investment at a time of low oil price and a world crisis.its all about timing now as the corona is here to stay atleast till years end.

https://www.stabroeknews.com/2020/03/23/news/guyana/tullow-has-no-plans-for-further-drilling-in-guyana-in-2020/

You are talking a lot not saying much..

Tony,
With your permission i will end this discussion here as it doesnt contribute nothing to this board.
The posters here can decide for themselves which poster to take seriously and which not.

Tony, there is no difference between cash and a carry, its same as cash.
Dolphin is securing their loan with a 10% revenue take after a 200% return on investment and value that assurance at around 140m$ gross value to the license.

Old&wise, good question..
The total cost of the 4 wells is 60m$.
14.5m$ is secured by production based loan from dolphin.
If we take the same key as dolphin used to value the license with a discount, a 30% farm out will be for 30m$ (discount from 43m$), so they secure 44.5m$ with net cost of 42m$.

the dolphin agreement is conditional on I3E confirming availability of funds 90 days prior to drilling commencement.
thats 1.6.20.
We know that i3e is speaking with rre and repsol and maby others as well and as summer is getting closer i3e is loosing time and control in the negotiations.
So this deadline is saying we are commited to that date contractualy and we intend to go forward by that time with one of the interested parties.

Imho, best case scenario is a drill on sep.

Yesterdays 1p is todays 0.4p

So the fact that you give a 10-20$, proves you dont know the real break even price which is 17$.
No other country in the world (offshore/onshore) is even close to that number, russia for exemple has a 40$ break even.
There are specific projects like i3e's that use existing infrostructure that can get to 20$ break even all over the world, you are saying nothing!
Keep trying to "win" the argument with pointing my spelling mistakes as i am not from an english speaking country, that for sure will make you feel smart.

Tony, its obvious to any rational personn that saudi arabia incloods the emirates, abu dabhi, katar etc.
Iran is sanctioned and irak also has a >20$ break even.
This remark was made to show this project has a world class economics.
Your remarks are a poor way to try to make you look smart, nothing more.
I feel bad for investor who think the sp tells the story instead of a real research, that is what you wrote, and that makes a poor investor.

Hhhh, tony you are clueless..

The dolphin deal puts i3e in a great negotiation position.
20$ brent break even is second only to saudi arabia, this is exactly the projects that will be priortised in this enviorment.
Dolphins 10% "royalties" post 200% return on investment is acctualy production based loan to be paid back in due course.
We have a deadline, farm in to be finalized by 1.6.20.
As i wrote before the campaign will be a four wells campaign, two wells at serenity and two at lib west.
A1 is not to be developed at the moment as it is to much of a risk with no much reward (oiler, please inform your "coleages").

oillr should prove they have the money to move forward with the farm in and finalize the deal.
once its done we can expect a second farm in.
if they wont be able to complete the deal there is no bottom here.

israel is in a lockdown, only the emergency forces still work.
we have 400 sick and 0 dead, we are the fastest acting country in the world.
the lockdown is a disaster, I can see all the tourism related industry food industry and more going out of business affecting the all market and real state prices causing a domino effect if it will keep after the 20.4 which is when they are going to decide whats next.
countries are not acting and once you have 400 sick its 10000 in two weeks (then 200000 in two weeks) and that's what happened in Italy and got out of control.
the usa are not acting in time and will get out of control which will mean total lockdown for more time and the biggest domino affect the worlds economy have witnessed.
imho