Bamps, im still in because im waiting for an opportunity to sell out, maby on good news from saffron. I allways write what i believe if its support my position or not. No one knows how long oil will be low and the fact that it threatens companies with a debt and operational costs that relay on their fcf that just stoped is relevant to a lot of companies that might not survive this crisis.
Cerp is a company with a debt that relays on the operational cash flow, that is the worst kind of companies to invest in a time of crisis and low oil price. The big opportunities are the companies that are debt free and on the exploration phase with attractive assets and cash ready to drill.
Hi, i'm an i3e holder and as such went over rre's update rns. Had a good view on rre since long ago, low break even projects and capable managment, but the sp at the moment seems unlogical.. 85m pound mc and 276m pound cash with no debt.. Am i missing something?
Very interesting these last two days trade. Yesterday the sp made a huge move up with a lot of small buys and low volume, today a lot of big sells with high volumes that were picked up immedietly. It looks like someone set a trap, raised the sp in an obvious manipulation then waited for the opportunity sellers around the corner and topped up with big volume buys.
Seems like trp's is waiting for oillr to prove they have the funds in order to complete the second farm out just in time to prove they have the funds themselves. Looks too complicated, even more in the current markets situation but lets wait and see. Rns due monday morning. Gonna be an interesting two weeks, were gonna fly or cry..
My assumption is corona will affect the markets for at least another 12 months and the second crisis of the "real" economy will stay longer. That doesnt change the fact that orinduik is a jewel, and on a discovery will produce only in 5 years. Exxon and hess both confirmed no cuts in the guyana operations and tlw confirmed its surinam project still on, the race of the majors is for a 10 years target and that is to get as much projects as they can with a 35$< break even and guyana is the place that has the amount of low break even reserves. F/o will probably be with total and QP.
Imho, No leak just good old manipulation, we had a few of these the last few months. Not saying the fundamentals arent there to support a move once completed but thats not a leak. Btw, some here like to chellenge every assumption i make so nice to see someone from rre value our 2p reserves at 3-5$ when i valued it in a t/o scenario (in response to a Q, i dont believe in that scenario) for 2$ pre crisis and have been called ramper.
I3e will complete a secondery listing by the end of april which will increase the demand, by then i would expect they will keep promoting like they are doing the last week and will release a new presentation and might even complete the first farm out of 20-25% securing the serenity campaign keeping the golden egg of the second farm out for post listing. (just a speculation).
RE: My take on a possible farm out24 Mar 2020 19:00
So i am more bullish and more bearish than you, i think the deal i speculated is rre-repsol making an amazing deal, and a good deal for i3e delivering a world class economics project with 20$ breakeven (now brent is 28$). Lets not forget serenity can take the production costs down around 8$ a barrel with the bleoholm working at full capacity. Saying that, i not sure we can hit the 20p so fast on a deal especialy at the current markets situation.
As we know both rre and repsol are in discussions with i3e and even if more are interested the common interests are to significant to let go. The 19km pipeline to serve both fields and the jv using the bleoholm is the game changer here. My opinion is that i3e is putting 50% on the table. The dolphin deal leaves 40% though they will repay dolphins carry to keep it, but for now i would guesstimate rre and repsol will take 20% each for about 15-20m$ each. Such deal will leave i3e with about 50m$ of carry&cash and a 35m$ costs.
I think year to year eco got one of the best multy bagger potential, on a successfull outcome of next years drill we look at 15p to 200p in a year, or pre drill 15p to 60p. Right now eco is short of short term catalysts and will keep trading at this level, 10p is my green light to top up. I think tullow will farm out 30% of orinduik in the second half followed by drilling final decision set to 1H 2021. Eco is funded and debt free and that makes it a good investment at a time of low oil price and a world crisis.its all about timing now as the corona is here to stay atleast till years end.
Tony, there is no difference between cash and a carry, its same as cash. Dolphin is securing their loan with a 10% revenue take after a 200% return on investment and value that assurance at around 140m$ gross value to the license.