A 300m ukp valuation compare to 60m ukp at the moment sounds unrealistic so I'll explain. 750m bboe target, if successfull, means 100m bboe net to eco. Taking pareto's valuation key at 4.9$ a barrel is around 500m$, the derisked prospective resources should add 0.5$ a barrel for around 2b barrels derisked as followup prospects, thats 300m bboe of prospective resources net for eco that value 150m$. By then namibia will add value incase of success at venus-1 well or farm out. So all together thats around 750m$ of value. The same way pareto's target price was 80% higher then market value, I take a discount to market price of about 2p that value around 400m$.
All this talks about the bod hoping to walk away with a few millions are not in place. Serenity will be developed quickly if confirmed and will produce 30k bbopd, with 50% net thats 250m$ of annual revenue and around 100m$+, with 0 value to the rest of the potential of the asset that makes a company value of around 250m$. If lib west will be proved, you can imagine..
A lot of investors thinks the sp tells the story and missing the big picture. That kind of money invested by insider 6 weeks before final results tells the story and not the sp. If saffron is a failure, not only the all swp project is in question but funds wasted and raising more funds will be very hard and dillutions will follow, lk taking shares at 2.7p instead of salary is no different then taking salary and buying shares, that is a very good sign!
This rns is much bigger catalyst then the sp reflects. By now LK must have a good idea of the saffron results, being at the site most of the time, and buying with his own money (around 300k ukp) at 2.7p is a big green light before final results due in april. Holding till results are out.
I will wait for final results before selling unless news from other front will raise the sp and let me out with my 3.4p avg, wrote two times we need to wait, but im less optimistic then most here, taking too long, looks to me commerciality is in doubt and in that case even if it is commercial that is not what Im in for. after all its all about alternatives. wish luck for all invested here.
after failing every single exp. well the last few months the big exp. upside is due H2. latook D will be probably drilled Q4 but before that we have a very promising exp. drill at block 47 targeting 2 layers de risked by the apache discovery with huge follow up de risked prospects on success.
that what it was! taking advantage of the hollow book orders to raise the sp dramatically creating a buzz and rumours then selling as much as they can, same here, raising 10% on open with no volume. looks like investors that don't want to let their investment 10 months of no news.
we are still waiting for final results but looks to me saffron is not a company maker, had the potential if the 11m bboe that were hoped for were discovered but that is not the case, the case is now about commerciality or not and boarder line commerciality is not very profitable so by my view more of the same. the rates of 50-100 bbopd is nothing, that is a rate that will take years to cover the development costs and the exploration costs. we are still waiting for rns with final analisys but that is my take and Im just waiting for a little rise to sell out. good luck
future of oil- by exxon the pick of oil consumption will be at 2040, Aramco who is the most exposed to that as 80% of saudy arabbia income is based on oil made her own research by which it will pick on 2035. in the coming years African states will up their oil consumption dramatically. I would say I feel comfortable investing in oil for the next 3-5 years.
serenity is a "must have" for rre, its all about the price, rre would like to take advantage of i3e's sp situation and get serenity for free- a carry of i3e's drilling costs doesn't even pay back past investments. if rre was the only one interested to farm in they would get it for free, but it looks like it is not the only one and that makes it a waiting game. the time frame is set, rre reported fid for tain mid 2020, so as we get closer to mid 2020 the cards shift to our favour as rre wouldn't like to be dependent on the OGA ruling about tain being an extension of serenity or not.
Alex, that is correct in regard to the 11m bboe at A1, the serenity reserves are still potential reserves for a rbl if farm out goes bad, but not clear how many bboe can be taken in to account as the company still needs to prove the majoraty of the stoiip.