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As i believe a 3b farmout is guaranteed, the eco investment if fully hedged, in 6 weeks results are due, a discovery will triple the sp, a failure will be short lived with a major entering 3b/4b with a well in sight plus a few wells in canje and back to the 30's while a walvis farm out as the rabbit in the hat.
So huge upside, low to no risk at this price.
Its speculation sells, personally i dont think azinam are interested in selling at all, they were supposed to have 50% in this well and were already diluted to third of that in the merge.
Same about aoi, they participated in all the raisings to keep their interest in eco and will sell only after realizing the value of the assets.
This drop could turn out to be an opportunity, now its a falling knife.
D, 3b/4b is one of the most attractive blocks in the world right now, 7 majors are in the data room.
Upstream which got all its inside info in the basin correct so far sais shell and total are in the top of the list and that means that according to the best data in the basin the discoveries of g&v are extending to 3b/4b, there is no way a farm out will not be completed in the coming month and that will be transformational for eco with or without a gazania discovery.
To be or not to be? To be!!!
Except it being on trend with venus and graff which the shell and total interest proves, the size and the huge prospects that atleast by the maps makes venus look like a small discovery, the big advantage is the 3d cover that ables the major to realy learn the potential and move fast to exploration like stated in the article about a 2023 drilling campaign.
the market is obsessed with meeting expectations, i realy dont care about that but about the low pe compered to the industry and catalyst to come and the serenity bonus.
i believe if serenity delivers i3e can get to 40p and results are only 5 -6 weeks away.
what i love most is a high impact well with hardly any downside, thats why im not investing in eog, might have a big drop on a duster.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/supermajors-eye-prime-orange-basin-block/2-1-1284744
Shorts must cover!!!!!
The problem with shorts is that one can lose much more then invested, if gazania will hit shorts that will be open will lose multiples of the amount invested, no sane investor will take that risk for a small upside on a duster.