You keep writing about contrary statements just because you cant understand how someone who is invested in a company writes about bad potential outcome.
Me writing about the outcome of a no vote doesnt mean i think that is the probable outcome!
That is an extreme outcome yet possible and that is why i am learning about such outcome.
Investments in oil is my profession, thats my job and my family's future so i take it more serious perhaps.
When i do have an agenda, like my posts on the toscana board, i make sure to write it upfront, maby that is naive but that is the way i do things and that got me to run the most popular oil&gas forum in israel and a few more specific companies forums.
Fairdealer, i like to check all possibilities and risks.
If you look at the likes that positive posts get on this board youll see people here dont care about anything that doesnt support their position and anyone who writes about risks must have a short position or secret agenda.
That is rediculous.
Btw, i am not trying to send signals but to discuss about the company's operations, everyone knows my position.
I think there is more then 50% of i3e making a f/o deal within the dolphin agreement time line - 1.6.20.
By my research about toscana and the sentiment there, even thought 72% of the shares are in the hands of PI's i think they dropped so much and the share is "dead" for a few years, my guess is not too much PI's will participate in the vote, while the 28% of the managment and insiders will all vote and ofcourse while some PI's will vote no hoping for a better offer some will vote yes so i think that we are secured.
If i remember correctly i wrote on the toscana board that i3e has a potential to be half a billion $ company in a FEW years, you should back me up.
I dont understand why people here always try to fight or look down on others.
Any way half a billion company FYI is a company that with a 20$ break even produce 25-30k bbopd with a 60$ oil price.
If i3e f/o and keep 40% serenity will produce net 10k bbopd.
A1 has a 5000k potential.
Lib west might prove 150m boe
Toscana in 3 years might produce another 10k.
Were talking about 2p sp.
Tony, i realy dont understand if you are serious or cynical. Ofcourse i will write about the potential of i3e, i am an i3e investor.
It is the best thing for them to vote yes or they get nothing and the last thing i want is for the vote to be no and well need this legal bs at the worst time.
This was posted on the toscana bb by a guy that holds 3% of the shares:
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Re: Acquisition vote
In BK a receiver will be put in place to liquidate TEI.
A transition loan will be grant to paid receiver, lawer, TEI man power etc.
The receiver will managed TEI
The receiver will put for sale all the TEI assets
The receiver will grant the assets to the highier bidder asssets per assets or for all the assets.
Then the court will approved the assets sales
The receiver is the first refund, following by lawers and the transition loan is refund. If something is leaf, secured creditors follow by unsecured creditors and shareholders
The Court process is costing 2-5M$Can, may be more.
All SH in the toscana bb are voting no, they think they can get a better offer.
If they vote no its gonna snow ball, i3e will need to eather make a much better offer which it cant afford or start legal action which will take years, cost a lot of money and the assets will be managed by a reciever to sell for the highest bidder and will not be delievered to i3e.
We will not have a secondary listing etc.
We are actually in the hands of the toscana SH.
I hope this was secured in advance by both managements, maby by buying shares privately to secure the vote.
A lot hangs on this vote for i3e.
I3e just might made a questionable deal, they baught a debt that obviously cant be paid and that deal is done (by my understanding), but the deal of buying the company for 4m shares still needs approval from the SH which are not happy to be sold for practicly nothing and hold more then 70% precent of the company, so if they vote no there is no secondary listing, no acquisition and a 3.4m cad lost.
Still need to varify the debt purchase, if its optional or not, but even if it is, the demage of not being able to keep up with the company's obligation to the junior loaners of secondary listing might start a chain reaction that doesnt end well for us.
The oil price on the day it was released was 30$, same as 10 days ago, you think that is what repsol is basing their strategy on?
You know that if serenity will go ahead it will produce in 2022-23 right?
I dont know if they'll succeed with the farm out, they were over confident one time drilling without the most updated map at A2, missing the target and causing a disaster and I wont be surprised if they'll do it again with this equisition that without a farm out will put them in an immediate danger of BR, but if they made a deal with dolphins based on a f/o and an equisition based on a f/o then I would think twice before posting with such confidence f/o is off for 2020.
This f/o is all or nothing and in 6 weeks well have an answer.
So you think the dolphin deal will be cancelled (they have till 1.6.20 to prove funds for the drills)?
What about tain, you think repsol will delay the developement as they need to unitize the fields?
Im not saying that is not a possibility but there is more to it then just a rush decision to delay operations, its a domino effect..
If you are right then we can easily drop another 80%, and just might go BR.
In that case the "great" toscana deal wont realize as they will not use the option needing every dollar to keep the lights on.
"It is thought Serenity is geologically connected to Tain and late last year i3’s chief executive Majid Shafiq said “initial discussion” had taken place between the two.
RSRUK said those talks remain ongoing."
I think/hope you are wrong.
Anyway I dont understand the logic of no farm out because of low oil price but m&a in Canada which has a higher break even..
If no f/o this company just might find itself exactly in toscana shoes being taken over for cheap by someone that will buy the debt.
Repsol just confirmed negotiations are ongoing, we have the tain issue etc.
I sure hope you are wrong else we are going to heat the wall full speed.
Our "luck" is that time is money in regard to utilizing the bleo holm and even more so in a low oil price enviorment.
In any other case i would think a f/o and appraisal wells will be delayed till storm is over.
If no f/o before the toscana deal is finalized it will be rediculous they spent 5m cad on a company that might be profitable in a few years while edmonton oil sells for 5$ at the moment, instead of focusing on serenity with all they have which is not much.
High risk, high reward.. Fingers crossed..