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Well someone took it before you.. Like always..
I guess i will not get a "sorry, you were right!" for writing it a week ago and getting a nasty respond as usual..
Assuming a farm out with a major (almost sure its total who also holds the blocks adjucent to us) in 6-8 weeks, maby even less, with two carried wells targeting billions of barrels in the hotest spot in the world is worth 0.28-0.3p on news and 0.5-0.6p on spud, its all about buying/holding the current lows and taking 100%-150% on spud.
on every operational update tlw released in the last few years orinduik was mentioned at the exploration update..
this is their latest update from a week ago:
Exploration
· In Côte d'Ivoire Block CI-524, Tullow, together with JV partner PetroCi, continues preparations for an exploration well. CI-524 presents a unique opportunity to realise operational synergies due to its proximity to Tullow's producing fields and to leverage Tullow's experience of the Tano Basin.
· In Gabon, Tullow, together with JV partner Perenco, have focused on maturing the prospective resource base within the Simba licence, where several low-risk and compelling investment options adjacent to infrastructure have been high-graded for near term drilling programmes.
as you can see orinduik is not mentioned although they are due to update their target selection in about 6 weeks.
they were suppose to do it by september but delayed it.
for me it looks like tlw is about to complete a transaction in orinduik and give up their operating status.
that by itself can be a great catalyst for eco as the targets there are drill ready.
just imagine one of the two 750m barrels targets get drilled, or both, with a tag price of only 12m$ per well net to eco with the great economics of orinduik..
lets hope for info in that regard at the breakfast...
For now wte will keep droping as permits wont be in place before april-june..
total is the best farm-inee we can dream for, a super major with the best knowledge of the geology with mega strikes from 11b12b to venus, and considering a second rig for the orange basin as we speak' might be waiting with that for a finalization of the farm in.
there is no doubt in my mind that if eco will retain 15% interest and sf1A with 2 billion of prospective resources (bigger then venus and on trend) will spud, which is a 300m barrels target net to eco when gazania was only 150m net, derisked by venus, the sp will be 50-70p.
In regard to valuation,
Eco was valued 40p+ while drilling a 150m barrel net, when 4b will be drilled it will be a 2 wells campaign with around 400m barrels net to eco, operated by a major, so could be less the 40p on spud+ but can be 60-70p on spike...
Now all eyes are on 3b/4b and that makes eco a strong buy.
In two months we will have a farm out deal with a major with carry of up to 2 wells in 2023 and a target for orinduik perhaps with drilling timeline.
That is worth around 25p on spot with price expected to be in the 40's once operations start on 4b with a billions barrels target...
So the smart ones will time their entrence right now and can just sit for 1-2 months to take 50% or wait for drilling another quarter or two and take 100%+..
If results are due by the end of the month i wonder when they expect to TD, if they encounter oil they will want to run tests, is that included?
If it comes up dry, they will want to p&a as fast as possible so are we talking about days from now or weeks on a failure outcome.
Was planned for 30 days, turned out to be a duster, p&a around day 20.
Eco is a small cap, every day counts, it was 30m$ for 25 days, a lot for eco.
The sidetrack save some expences but other then that its like drilling a second well, eco is tight on money and will drill a "second well" only if the results are positive and confirmed.
They will not make i3e's mistake drilling the same location twice only to fail twice (liberator).
Dont forget eco stated day 11 that work is on schedule and i think around 10 days later afe stated the same.
Lol, 3 3,000 pound trades out of 26 mini trades and don concludes its cateleya and jhi selling, what a foollll... Hhh
Most of the trades are less then 1k pound, thats not cateleya/jhi.
The gazania numbers were reported long before eco got in, i believe the 1 billion barrels mentioned are oil in place.
All we need is a commercial discovery, all else is bonus.
James you got it wrong, got an email response from gil on sunday on that subject:
"The 25 days is estimated actual drilling time into the main Gazania target (excluding weather downtime etc). Sidetrack is not inclusive and is dependent on a discovery or strong positive shows in Gazania. If we announce sidetrack in 2-3 weeks you can open the champagne ?? "