Member Info for harel

no need for derampers when oil man jim writes- "It appears there will be no drilling on the Guyana block this year, indeed perhaps never."

W, rns is out because they had to inform the market that the meeting they said would take place by the end of this month with total and tlw is delayed.
Tried to hide it with some known numbers..

Tonny, ill explain to you what you write, instead of giving 43 slices you wrote that youll cut the same pizza to 43 mini slices to buy the bike.
And if you are talking about post farm out as you wrote then no need for the 35mp.

I give up, if anyone thinks you can raise 35mp out of 8mp mc then good luck with that.

"Join Harel in the corner - no one said that they were going to issue 440m shares to raise 31M pounds."

Well someone just wrote "Assuming they need to Raise GBP 35M at an SP of 8p . This equates to an additional 440M shares".

So lets say i was talking to that guy that writes in your name.

To make simplier for you, if 440m shares were issued than we would have 550m shares that value 8m ukp, thats 0.145p a share and not 0.8p a share.

Its you that wrote that 440m shares in issue will raise 35m pound when it will raise only its share of the 8m pound value of around 6.5m pound, please dont call your self stupid, you just made a funny mistake.

"Assuming they need to Raise GBP 35M at an SP of 8p . This equates to an additional 440M shares".
that's a funny remark to start the morning with...
how to raise 35m ukp with a 8m ukp value... hhh
you can issue a trillion more shares, the market cap will remain 8m ukp...

so we were waiting for a consortium meeting by the end of this month as stated a few times in the last few weeks to finalize the drilling schedule for 20-21 only to read in this rns that "a final decision on further drilling activity and the overall budget will be made in the coming months."
no news out except that and a hint that drilling will be delayed till next year.
with no corona and the tlw financial issue I would expect a sp of around 0.50 at the moment, but as it is we can easily break under 0.3.

You werent part of the discussion, you are welcome to give your view.

We all agree 70p pre drill is conservative.

A 300m ukp valuation compare to 60m ukp at the moment sounds unrealistic so I'll explain.
750m bboe target, if successfull, means 100m bboe net to eco.
Taking pareto's valuation key at 4.9$ a barrel is around 500m$, the derisked prospective resources should add 0.5$ a barrel for around 2b barrels derisked as followup prospects, thats 300m bboe of prospective resources net for eco that value 150m$.
By then namibia will add value incase of success at venus-1 well or farm out.
So all together thats around 750m$ of value.
The same way pareto's target price was 80% higher then market value, I take a discount to market price of about 2p that value around 400m$.

Eco is most likely to double its value before next well results.
On failure will drop more then todays price, on success 2p is reasonable.

https://oilnow.gy/featured/eco-fully-funded-drill-ready-to-pursue-light-oil-prospects-at-orinduik/

That is the issue, tlw needs to go ahead with fast cash creating projects and so the budjet cut due to revenue cut will have to be in exploration.

All this talks about the bod hoping to walk away with a few millions are not in place.
Serenity will be developed quickly if confirmed and will produce 30k bbopd, with 50% net thats 250m$ of annual revenue and around 100m$+, with 0 value to the rest of the potential of the asset that makes a company value of around 250m$.
If lib west will be proved, you can imagine..

A lot of investors thinks the sp tells the story and missing the big picture.
That kind of money invested by insider 6 weeks before final results tells the story and not the sp.
If saffron is a failure, not only the all swp project is in question but funds wasted and raising more funds will be very hard and dillutions will follow, lk taking shares at 2.7p instead of salary is no different then taking salary and buying shares, that is a very good sign!

Very interesting, didnt know that old quote, that is before they planned to develope A1 with A2, that means A1 is able to produce, by their model, 7000 bbopd.
That is one upside potential.

This rns is much bigger catalyst then the sp reflects.
By now LK must have a good idea of the saffron results, being at the site most of the time, and buying with his own money (around 300k ukp) at 2.7p is a big green light before final results due in april.
Holding till results are out.

btw, final results for echo are out, 30% down atm.

I will wait for final results before selling unless news from other front will raise the sp and let me out with my 3.4p avg, wrote two times we need to wait, but im less optimistic then most here, taking too long, looks to me commerciality is in doubt and in that case even if it is commercial that is not what Im in for.
after all its all about alternatives.
wish luck for all invested here.