Member Info for HarChris

Whilst the debt is high currently once the Orion CLN refinancing goes through the risk will reduce substantially.

Most importantly it shifts almost all of it to the long term, with just 25% of the new $27m loan needing to be repaid over the next 24 months + interest repayments on the loan and new CLN and small continual repayments on the PFA. This gives BMN a clear 24 months to generate cash in what is a low capex period, with any strength in V over that time being immediately crystallised into cash whilst the CLN set at just 8p there's a high chance that $13.5m will be paid off via shares.

Of course if in two years time if V has failed to rise as expected AND/OR operations at Vanchem have failed to improve with cost pressures continuing then that debt will once again come into focus and we won't have seen the return we're all after but anything closer to where BMN expect to be in mid 2025, a profitable 5000mtV+ producer with AISC nearer to $30/kgV, a 200MWh electrolyte producer and a significant partner in Cellcube with VRFB growth two years on, that's sitting on a significant cash pile then the current market cap of just £43m will be a thing of the past.

"If one really wanted a punt/bet/gamble on the quantum leap in vanadium prices buy the Largo Physical Vanadium trust. There would be limited downside and a significant upside would be cream."

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This is nonsense, the punt/bet/gamble on a quantum leap in vanadium prices (if you want to cynically call it that) is to buy Bushveld as BMN is the leveraged play on vanadium. A small rise in V from $40/kgV to $45/kgV doubles gross profits for BMN whereas you make a tiny gain investing in physical vanadium. A jump from $40/kgV to $50/kgV trebles gross profits and if we're then talking a 'quantum leap' an increase from $40/kgV to $80/kgV would see BMN gross profits balloon 11X vs a very modest doubling.

Well the thing is CS there's no way around the incompetency concern besides selling. You and me both have been unimpressed with novacyt over the past few years on absolutely every front but I think like me you're still in / have bought more because despite all that we see asymmetric risk/reward as a £28m market cap company that had £87m cash and no debt at last count whilst also fairly confident that the outcome with the DHSC ends up going our way (to varying degrees).

It's abundantly clear they're not going to organically grow into a midcap company so acquiring their way there is the route it's got to be and I guess we just have to hope that they've done their homework on this front and have bided their time before striking for a reason.

Well they were in real trouble a month ago and before this strong move in bitcoin it looked like the SP was heading for sub 5p.

At $30k BTC it's tough to say if they are still burning cash, at a push I'd lean towards no but in the past Argo has run out of funding and become distressed far sooner than most of us forecasted.

They must surely be trying to sort a funding package out whilst bitcoin sentiment has improved otherwise they are taking a huge risk holding out for a bull run from now.

SF, they wouldn't. It's the same people that said Orion had all the power and will wipe the flaw with Bushveld and seize majority control that are now trying to spin that narrative - it's baseless.

Increases in FeV in both Europe and the US and now every single market up over 60 days and half now green over 90 days too. https://www.asianmetal.com/Vanadium/

With the dollar not far off 19Zar we're looking rather good here, fingers crossed this uptrend continues.

Davand, if you and fellow holders think Yourgene is worth a lot more than novacyt are bidding surely the logical thing now is to buy as many novacyt shares as you can? Let's say for argument sake you think Yourgene should be going for double (I think you've stated that before), well that means in your opinion a fair takeout price is £33m...

Right now you can buy novacyt, all its IP and products, Yourgene once the deal goes through AND ~£60m cash in the bank plus no debt (once ncyt pays yourgene's off) all for £29m... isn't that ludicrous?!

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I suppose the only counter to that is the DHSC dispute but us holders are confident of a positive outcome and the fact the company have counter sued and are willing to take this to court suggests they believe so too.

I'd argue pointing out the 'downsides that explain the share price malaise' is reasonable if it didn't take 120 posts a month to do it. That frequency makes one think it's more likely agenda-driven rather than balance-driven.

And the truth is the market's a complicated beast, even the slightest of differences (improved market backdrop, bigger raise at an opportune time etc) may have led to being in the identical position trial-wise but be at double, even three times the current share price. It's easy to look smart after the fact.

Or is it that the likes of you Thornogson actually do understand the nuance but you recognise that the market as a whole hasn't quite caught on so have positioned yourself accordingly to try and take advantage of that (and in doing so are quite content with muddying the water) rather than the rest of us that are more willing to admit that we don't quite know when that inflection point is going to come and so prefer not to throw the dice and instead promote the story whilst being fully loaded to the long side?

Unless you're of the opinion like many of us that the DHSC were assuming that a company as small as novacyt would lack the might to be able to fight this case and would eventually roll over. And were never expecting this situation to play out.

There are a range of possible outcomes but seeing as the DHSC have lost all the other similar cases I've followed I think the odds are that it rules in ncyt's favour (to what degree I'm not sure?) and hence makes the risk even more worth it right now.

At the same time this is where a lot of the share price disconnect derives from in my opinion - those intimately knowledgeable on the company know how much progress has been made and how that points to the likely eventual success of AVA6000 and pre|CISION but to outsiders looking in we're only at the very first hurdle, yet to even complete Ph1A.

They'll soon twig when licenses start being inked.

Kind of you to share all that Davand, thanks.

Oh and just one more thing to add to the £115m net asset value post earlier:

'At 31 December 2022, the Group has unused tax losses of over £70.9m (covering France & the UK) available for offset against future relevant profits and their period of use is unlimited.'

That's a big deal if novacyt can acquire high revenue businesses and transfigure that revenue into profit.

I've never sold out of novacyt but have bought and reduced significantly at what I considered pivotal junctures / turning points, about 5 or 6 times since early 2021. Monday was the first time I've topped up in a long while and the most comfortable I've probably ever been with a top up (obviously factoring in the share price). Earlier I did one more top up and am happy with my new enlarged position now.

The only justification I could come up with for the share price previously was that nobody buys into an inactive company, nobody buys into a business that isn't putting out news or is potentially hamstrung when it comes to utilising their finances, especially on AIM - Monday put all that to bed. Will it take a lot more to justify a market cap in the hundreds of millions? Of course but it will take very little going right for this suddenly being back at a pound which is a significant percentage jump from here at 41p.

As annoying as all the negativity was the reason I filtered the poster in question is because of the repetition of calling literally 'ALL' share price action as a pump and dump, however much I tried to explain that that makes no sense. By that logic commodities are pumped and dumped daily, FX is pumped and dumped daily. To hear through you Kaeren that it's still going on is painful!

Good post by the way, agree with it word for word.

Really not in my case CS, I just think anyone that spreads rumours with such a patchy record is credible, especially one that revels in doing so in popular stocks.

You’ve got to be right almost all the time in such a financially sensitive sphere to be anything other than dangerous imo.

And admittedly I also just think he’s a horrid human being.

No Monimon that was the price (very briefly) AFTER the news broke, at 8am on the bell. It lasted all but a minute or two but there was nothing fortuitous about that, just opportunistic.

Even after all the restructuring and write downs net asset value still remains at £115m and seeing as between now and June we’ll likely either hear nothing or they’ll be an out of court settlement in our favour I think that makes the risk of buying more at this price well worth the potential reward (a doubling of share price would still have us at less than 50% NAV).

Why lucky? I managed a top up sub 38p on open after the news, if you’d done the same you’d be sitting on a nice profit.

I’m tempted to add further all the while the market cap is this far below net cash.

Tom Winnifrith's wikipedia page made me laugh - the 'Controversy' section is longer than all the other sections combined!