Member Info for HarChris

From the Largo Q2 update yesterday

'V2O5 equivalent sales of 2,557 tonnes in Q2 2023 vs. 3,291 tonnes sold in Q2 2022 due to lower available inventory'

This is interesting as the previous month they had sold heavily into the higher Q1 prices... this looks like they've used up all their stockpile and so have no ability to prop up a European market heading into deficit.

Kaeren, do you mean tempted to buy YGEN at .49 for an easy gain on the .522 takeover price with the additional possibility of another offer materialising? If so I thought about it earlier this week too but decided against it just in case the deal did end up falling through and YGEN collapsed back to .20

The last gold cross ramp I promise but just look at the Shanta update to confirm what I was sharing with you a few days ago:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SHG/q2-2023-production-operation-update-7rvenqlna6cxsjo.html

This is the OPEX and All in Sustaining Cost at the two mines:

o NLGM: US$904 /oz and US$1,181 /oz

o Singida: US$579 /oz and US$736 /oz

Gold is at $1980/oz...

Production up close to 100% quarter on quarter, net debt of US$8.7 million, down 54% from US$19.0 m in Q1. That's $11.3m reduction from cash generation in one quarter alone and the market cap is $130m, only double Argo's.

My word, I missed that at 7am... that could not have been better!

Gold really looks like it wants to have a go at $2000/oz this week, would set things up perfectly for a big rally Monday.

You respond to others filtering all the time, it seems to be all you're interested in, it's like meta filter. Here's a few of yours to add to your new ones today:

‘Pdub - No names so no judgement simply an observation. I certainly don’t need to know who and why you filter anyone that’s your call, a personal choice; but why you need to announce it to everyone and every time I don’t know as that just provokes a response.’

‘I wonder does anybody actually read this board with all the filtering going on… or is everybody talking to themselves whilst admiring green boxes? lol ‘

‘Firstly the filtering here is getting comical to say the least’

__________________________

Maybe one day you'll add something of substance to this BB but I highly doubt it.

'The last buys were are 11.2p: that's a tasty 12% gain on the day since the offer placing'

You couldn't sell for that so it's not a 12% gain but also my point was that the risk PRE placing was not worth it. As I said earlier there is more of a trade to be had now POST placing / joining in the placing.

Positive EBITDA profit in H1 is a certainty for the group.

What I am talking about is net profit for the group and that I still think will be positive although I could be wrong if sustaining capex costs are heavily weighted to H1 whilst production volume weighted more heavily than expected to H2 and if production outweighs sales in Q2.

But yes EBITDA profitability is almost 100%, net income as a group less so but still likely imo.

However profitability at this very moment is touch and go and I'd lean towards BMN being loss making currently - could do with V prices kicking on from here.

Exactly, the share price is depressed by at least a factor of 3 or 4 because of the dispute. Anything that gives confidence that the dispute won't go the government's way or may even land in ncyt's favour will bring confidence back here and more steady buying pressure. I mean just look at the enterprise value, usually you're looking for as low as possible but it's never negative. Here it is for novacyt:

Enterprise Value = Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash = £32m + £0 - £87m = -£55m.

Simply unheard of and hence shows what will happen if the dispute goes our way.

My thesis has remained consistent since about April when the SP was 14p. Argo will raise at the first opportunity they have so if you buy your only chance of making money is if bitcoin rallies after you buy and you get out quick before the placing lands.

There was a brief period in July where someone nipping in and out could have made money but that's about it, hence the risk was really not worth it.

We were informed in the full year results that sales price YTD was $38/kgV and that was more or less right up to the end of H1. We started the year with a B/E price around $35.5/kgV with the rand at 16.6 but obviously the rand has been considerably weaker than that so you'd hope the margins will be stronger.

And of course there are other factors such as sustaining capex weighted to H1 but offsetting that is the selling off of the stockpile which we saw in Q1 and hopefully continued into Q2 so it's tough to say just how much net income we'll see in H1 but a profit we should certainly see.

We'll have to see how Q2 went but as long as all on target we'll see a profit for H1 2023 in the range of $7m-$14m pre tax I think. That's a significant number compared with current market cap.

Will need to see V pick up a bit to ensure profits through H2 though.

You must have written that same comment ten times now broomtree.

I filtered ten or so accounts for one reason, because they are just here to wind posters up and I invariably get dragged into a time wasting exchange that leads nowhere and wastes my day. I see it as no different to a spam folder in email, just because I don't see all the sex ads and Nigerian princes trying to get me to send them money does that mean I am no longer informed?

Simple housekeeping.

The answer is always much simpler than you think it is... because they had no choice.

Argo BOD enters discussions with institutions. They inform them that they need to meet certain debt obligations within the next couple of months otherwise they default on their debts, they also point out that they need to bring the overall debt burden down to give themselves any chance of becoming cash flow positive. Who do you think holds the power, Argo which needs to meet debt obligations and has absolutely no growth strategy or the institutions? So why would institutional clients pay anything close to market rate especially when the share price fell to just 7p a month ago?

I think it's a miracle they managed to get a placing away at 10p, I was expecting a far deeper discount which is commonplace across AIM currently (I know Argo aren't AIM but still).

True Flowerpot, by meaningful survival I kinda meant solvent. In my example they would be raising enough to wipe out most of the debt and they'd be almost certainly making a small profit on the small amount of bitcoin they were mining.

However they'd need to raise again after that to survive much past the halving and to replace their machines. Just so many obstacles and so much luck needed for Argo to exist in say three years time from now - the odds are miniscule.

I can't see most of this conversation due to filter preferences but following on at least from your point RS it makes me think of many situations where the future might be bright but a change at the top is needed. Football is a good example, often a manager has built the squad and is seemingly on the right path and with all the ingredients to be successful/win trophies but for whatever reason, be it a lack of killer instinct, a weakness somewhere they just don't quite fulfil the potential... In steps a new manager with all the tools at his (invariably his) disposal and wham, overnight success.

CLSK that may well be the case but why not explain that in the rationale? Something along the lines of ‘this placing allows Argo to repay the looming debt payment of X and therefore vastly reduces any short term insolvency risk’ rather than focus on the large overall debt figure which appears unsustainable?

Personally I don’t buy this stranded energy growth narrative but I guess it’s essential to shoehorn the G word in there. For me their one last chance of meaningful survival is a bitcoin bull run, rally to ~30p and then pulling off as big of a raise as possible at ~25p.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey.

The idea of being gazumped seems to have simmered down on the Yourgene board now, not that it was something us ncyt holders thought likely… would be nice to see this steadily rise over the next month before the acquisition is official before Q3 is out.

I would say there’s now more of an argument and slightly less risk when it comes to a potential trade here but that’s about it. And realistically you’d want well below the placing price to make the risk worth it.

If I could just find out what time Dom-Bella's going to wake up today and log on here then I wouldn't have to rely on intuition and could use science instead.