Member Info for HarChris

No i'm afraid that line of thinking is illogical Zaskar.

If the terms had to be altered because 'Primorus refuse to accept what they consider next-to-worthless shares as repayment' then BMN would simply not agree to a new arrangement that costs them slightly more in total.

Well done for trying to think outside of the box and offer an alternative view but in this instance the most obvious one is probably the correct one (Craig making the point immediately that Bushveld is worth considerably more than its current valuation and is putting shareholders interests first).

ID78, if you want the clearest picture of where the debt is heading look at this tweet:

https://twitter.com/MBdaytrading/status/1676865154229706752/photo/1

Now bear in mind that that forecast of net debt falling from $23.6m in 2022 to $9.6m in 2023 is based on a gold price of $1800/oz. The actual gold price YTD is ~$1940/oz...

Then look at 2024 - net debt falls to $3.7m but Liberum are using a gold price of just $1675/oz!

The tweet shows very positive net debt trajectory using highly conservative gold value but we're already seeing far higher prices and if they continue into next year those forecasts are absolutely obliterated.

Hi Noel, thanks for pointing us towards this stuff but you did say this just the other day 'Magoo - I had said all I had to say about Martin Armstrong ' but have since continued down this pat... I'm sure those that are interested will go follow now but for the rest that aren't perhaps Shanta focused posts are more useful.

'What is the current debt? I did look in the latest results but didn’t see much there'

It's there in Q1 - Gross debt $29.1m and cash $11.5m so you can work it out for yourself. Singida coming online and gold averaging $1900/oz since has Shanta on target to flip to gross cash by the end of the year which shows how much cash is now being generated.

'I hate "bi-weekly".'

Is that a magazine subscription you're signed up to?'

We know they have money ($11m cash at the start of the year) and have been turning a profit for a good proportion of 2023. And they have a ton of costed stock to sell.

Excellent start from Craig. Couldn't have worded that RNS any better.

I'm not entirely sure we'd have seen any escalation if novacyt had initially just accepted the DHSC pulling the plug on the contract when they did. I suspect ncyt management demanded the full revenues from the initial phase 1 and begun seeking legal advice. It wasn't until a year later that the DHSC issued the claim against novacyt which was probably them getting in first and attempting to strong-arm novacyt into giving up on their fight to be fully remunerated only for novacyt instead to hit back with the counterclaim.

So it's reasonable to think that the DHSC was happy to simply walk away in April 2021 and the claim only came to push novacyt back on their own attempts to recover what they considered outstanding sums due. And so after all this effort and time you've got to think that novacyt are going to at the very least demand some of the £81.5m they believe they are owed if they are to settle out of court.

Yeah Andii I was being overly cautious with that figure. In some ways I feel like a lot of the story and financials here seem too good to be true so can use the most conservative numbers and they still look damn good!

But yeah you're right with ~$22m.

Good point Andii although the majority of the shares (10 million) were issued at 52.6p, not 56p, and a much smaller portion (2 million) at 26.7p.

It really was a quite incredible deal.

The key thing we are waiting on is the latest operational update that should show what reaching 30000t capacity means in reality - at 6100t-6500t production this quarter with extremely healthy margins will prove Sahamamy and Vatomina can deliver healthy cash going forward. There is them the low capex 6000t capacity add-on at Vatomina to a total capacity of 36000t that we expect later this year and following this I would expect a debt package to fund the next stage of expansion with two possible routes:

(i) Continue focus on Madagascar with 3 modules of 18000tpa each totalling 54000tpa at a cost of ~$30m

(ii) Look to continue construction at Montepuez, Mozambique which brings 50000tpa online at a cost of ~$39m

I agree with you when you say this could rerate quickly and it feels like we are rather close to that inflection point now.

What are you talking about? There was a post about Largo and I reposted my Largo Bushveld comparison from a month ago. Why? Because it's still relevant today as neither has had an operational update since. It's also useful as we're close to Q2 results so we can then compare if either company has turned a corner in the next week or so.

Almost every post of yours is personal.

I'm glad they've cancelled personally... here's a chance to finally show that they've not been simply twiddling their thumbs and actually have a plan to take this company on and to show some auspicious early signs of successful execution.

The clock's ticking.

The Argo share price reacting as if bitcoin exploded following the Fed 3% CPI print when in fact BTC is lower than it was before that release.

Very odd.

This was my Bushveld Largo comparison from a month ago:

\As the only real peer we can compare Bushveld with currently it's always worth looking at these two side-by-side.

On the production front Bushveld has significantly closed the gap in recent years. In 2020 Largo produced 6622mtV (11825t v205) vs Bushveld's 3631mtV whereas this year we're looking at just 5600mtV (10000t v205) taking Largo's midpoint revised guidance vs Bushveld's 4350mtV. So over these years Largo has gone from 82% higher production figures to just 28%.

Looking at costs Largo's have ballooned as shown by their inability to turn a profit in Q1 despite European (their main market) FeV and v205 prices at $39.36/kgV and $10.39/lb respectively and over 700t v205 more sales than production. A loss in those circumstances is poor IMO.

So costs / break even price now higher than bushveld's, production still higher but the gap rapidly diminishing (and virtually closed if they aren't able to improve next year and Bushveld reaches 5000+mtV). Additionally Bushveld's main market, the US, is seeing continued elevated prices in comparison to Largo's main market. They also don't sell the specialist higher value products either.

On the vanadium front it's unquestionable that Bushveld now looks the healthier company, especially with Largo's life of mine issues at Menchen but it would be unfair not to point out that Largo are diversifying into Ilmenite with their Ilmenite concentration plant still being built, how this pans out is yet to be seen. They also have their Largo VCharge which is building vrfbs so a potential huge revenue generator in the future but for now a big cash burden. And finally their cash position is still that bit higher than ours at $61m with ours likely to be around the $25m mark at this point in time.

Difference in market caps today - Largo £228m vs Bushveld £49m. Considering Largo is performing so much worse than BMN in their core business I continue to view this as a massive disconnect.'

__________________________

A month later and the market cap gap has remained/grown slightly. Will update this thread when Largo's operational update is out next week followed by Bushveld's Q2 the following.

Unless it’s just the mandarin to English translation it very much reads like this battery is just the start of tons more to come of even bigger size:

‘demonstration’ power station project , a ‘benchmark’ for the national vanadium battery energy storage industry.

And it’s not a few MWhs, it’s 400!

I don’t think the complete ‘truce’ scenario is very likely… if the DHSC want to settle I suspect novacyt demand damages, not to the tune of the full £81.5m but something.

At this paltry valuation a £10m- £20m cash injection would be pretty seismic.

Or here directly from linkedin:

https://www.linkedin.com/embed/feed/update/urn:li:ugcPost:7084876765570981888

Posted the wrong link there K! Here it is:

https://twitter.com/biopharmedia/status/1679141395095756801

Well that happened quicker than I was expecting ;)

No doubt the market thought gold would retest 1850 but no, it’s back at 1950. Look forward to seeing where SHG finishes the week. Gla.

There are a couple of reasons why we are confident that the dispute will go novacyt's way in some form or other GLTader but there are others on here that will articulate it better than me - i'm sure they'll reply in due course.