Member Info for HarChris

No, we have the same numbers because well, maths is maths, accounting is accounting.

That doesn’t mean everyone then comes to the identical conclusion of whether to continue holding or not, especially from a very short term trading perspective.

Pretty difficult not to get a wee bit excited here. Stationary storage is having a moment and we’re in what is the world’s leading VRFB manufacturer outside China that is cashed up all the way to at least q1/q2 2024 and possibly beyond if this rapid growth takes Invinity towards that break even point by then.

Well my figures that are supposedly made up are also BBN’s numbers so not sure if your logic stacks on that one.

BBN is a trader as well as investor, he sold out last week in the 3s and it’s now in the 2s so he made a good call. What he does from here we don’t know and considering he’s flip flopped more times than I can keep track of this year and has got a lot of flak for it I’d imagine any trades he does from now will be kept to himself.

I noticed you kept very quiet recently when he bought back in as it didn’t fit your narrative.

Yeah it does - made up of (very) roughly 2/3 cash costs and 1/3 everything else.

Even last year with the heavy expansion B/E level should have been about $38.5/kgV but all the issues bumped it up considerably.

Sorry I should also add that this year Fortune has stated that 250mtV of the inventory aims to be sold so that's an additional $9.25m (minus the shipping costs) to the cash pile / profit.

We forget that losses from 2022 included a lot of stock that was produced but not sold.

SF break even will be $36/kgV or lower if guidance (both production and costs) is met and so far, 6 months into the year, it continues to be reiterated. And since we started the year with $10.9m we will therefore end the year with more than that so I don't think that's exactly bad.

Would sure make the world of difference if these V increases continue though.

And the wording is slightly different in that BMN always use 'average realised price' and here they haven't... I don't think it includes higher priced goods or Nitrovan premium.

So after a few days without V price updates due to Chinese public holidays last week AM is once again updated:

V205 up right across the board including a 1.37% rise in Europe, also a big jump in Russian FeV of 2.12%. We are now seeing increases over not just 30 days but 60 days too - definitely appears to be a reversal in trend.

https://www.asianmetal.com/Vanadium/

Or bitcoin goes up, Mara share price doubles and then they issue slightly fewer shares to buy the same amount of bitcoin?

It's why it can actually be just as beneficial to expand in the bull run, if for example you pay four times more for rigs or four times more for bitcoin but your share price is six times higher then actual dilution is less than it would be in the bear market to buy the same amount of bitcoin/rigs.

I can't see much of this conversation because of my filter preferences but Fara AISC did come in at $43.7/kgV for 2022 but that's because of a whole host of issues that we're well aware of and are either one offs (Kiln 3 refurbishment and teething issues) or in the process of being sorted (such as ore issue). This year at mid guidance I believe All in Sustaining Cost is ~$35.5/kgV at 17Rand so the hope will be to see even lower than that what with the rand being considerably weaker but for now both production and cost guidance has been reiterated so best to stick with that number ($35.5/kgV).

Expected capex at Vanchem alone in 2022 was roughly equivalent to the entire group capex in 2023 before we even get into the ballooning costs that occurred from kiln 3 refurbishment issues.

The rand (as Pdub just pointed out) is a good 10% weaker so far through 2023 and heading towards 15% weaker.

The increased scale (roughly 15% higher production expected) should offset inflationary pressures we're seeing this year.

2023 is still shaping up to be a return to profit and any increase in V through H2 will make that close to a certainty.

5. That’s not true at all, HODL isn’t cash, investors will personally value it based on where they think Bitcoin is heading to in both directions. That’s exactly why MSTR trades at a premium to book value because investors are bullish on Bitcoin and believe that the HODL will be worth more in the future.

Certainly going to be an interesting Q2 in four to five weeks time. If the improvement in Vanchem production in March and April continues through to end of June it’s highly likely we’ll see costs at least at the lower end of the guidance and maybe even upgraded (if you can call it that?!)

Did I say Colin? I did not mean Colin.

I'm certainly delighted to see this 'boots on the ground' at Vanchem message. The biggest myth of recent years is that the price of vanadium has not played to our favour. Whilst it's true it never held at what's been described as the 'sweet spot' of $45/kgV - $50/kgV it has been healthy compared with historic pricing. 2022 was a tough year on a number of fronts but $41.4/kgV average realised price was very strong. So far in 2023 the average price achieved by the group is not too far off that.

There were already signs that Vanchem was turning a corner but if Colin can fully optimise the plant without additional capex then BMN will suddenly be a far, far leaner operation capable of making a profit all the way down to ~$32/kgV (and lower if Rand remains weak long term) and a cash cow at the average realised prices we've seen over the past eighteen months or so. When you look at the backdrop over the past few years those prices are highly suggestive of a tight market with the growth in VRFB battery demand at the heart of that so achieve what he's setting out to achieve at Vanchem and we will suddenly see the balance sheet and outlook transformed in the blink of an eye.

It was as clear as day that the headline loss figure from the full year results was going to cause a sell off. Personally I held off my small top up until the rns was released and if I was a risk-taking trader I'd have probably sold the lot last week and waited to buy them back after the news.

It is what it is, we're in a risk-off high interest rate environment right now where every whiff of negativity leads to a hefty sell off. Let's hope that's the 'bad news' out of the way if you want to call it that and look forward to much brighter times ahead of us.

You won't find a single post from me however much you search trying to get anything deleted, I have absolutely no interest in censorship whatsoever but good to see I've riled you with back-to-back posts about me ;)

Have a good weekend.

And then what you do is use those (admittedly) decent calls to post any unsubstantiated guff that you want as you think you’ve built some credibility.

Your posts are peppered with nonsense that you attempt to dress up as fact.

CC has lost all interest in sensible discussion and has just gone full wind-up merchant now, any earnest reply is just an ego boost for him.

I’m not aware of any vanadium producer outside China that has managed to grow production over the past few years besides Bushveld, it’s a tough sector for sure and worth bearing that in mind.

I sort of agree with your analysis Ben but one of the most important things right now is positioning as well as possible for when the next (very likely) V rally strikes, demand from vrfb batteries has nearly reached the point where it can offset sharp falls in steel demand and that’s a big deal with so little supply hitting the market near term… and when that rally comes the balance sheet is wiped clean in a heartbeat.