Member Info for HarChris

It is very easy to see that if BMN merely burnt through $4m cash in what was such a challenging year with huge expansion costs at Vanchem and with production exceeding sales (and hence all the costs without the revs) then this year without the expansion costs and with the increased scale and sales finally exceeding production it's going to mean we return to profit.

Vanadium prices and the weakening rand are in BMN's favour to boot.

It also makes no sense. If it was truly the case they’d have likely raised a tad more with Orion so all the financing was done in one go. Not to mention the tens of millions of stockpile that’s begun being sold this year (which makes a net profit even more likely).

Definitely the lesser of two evils, especially as there is now a new CEO being installed.

Still hoping for an RNS to put it all to bed. Anyone who is in contact with Chika and other mgmt need to press them as it’s a glaring error.

I really really hope you listened to the call to make such a refutation.

Amazingly after such a negative going concern statement Tanya confirmed in the call that it was merely because the Orion deal is not yet finalised and so meeting the near term liabilities can't be guaranteed without alternative funding sources.

They've made a right royal f*** up in one of the paragraphs in the RNS which makes it seem otherwise - very poor but fortunately it appears it is just that, clumsy language.

Https://twitter.com/nickhedley/status/1671441831031087104?s=46&t=L7k3nxfxN_9xwjjIedxUrA

Doing better than the UK on the inflation front.

There is no evidence of that. Inflation in SA is actually lower than many forecasts at the start of the year and falling and the big hike in electricity costs is also factored into that cost guidance. It’s all in the Jan rns and they continue to reiterate cost guidance.

All I can go on is that for now.

Today guidance was reiterated for both production and costs. Breakeven should be around $35.5/kgV at rand 17. We’ve seen far weaker rand and far higher V prices averaging across our sales base (not including our sales into higher value markets as demand for chemicals and aeronautics keeps increasing nor the 5% Nitrovan premium).

Wrong to say we aren’t on for making a net profit this year.

That’s a contestable statement with rand well in the 18s and US price ~$38.5/kgV with the percentage of sales that go there.

At worst I’d argue we’re smack bang at breakeven after considerable margins Jan to May.

V starting to show daily rises on AM too.

1.5p is less than the value of our Cellcube investment!

Here’s a very simple way to look at it. BMN started the year with $15m cash and after a ‘turbulent’ year with heavy expansion and no raise whatsoever they ended it with $10.9m.

Since the turn of the year everything has turned in BMN’s favour + no expansion this year, only minimal sustaining capital. How they are in supposed financial trouble is beyond me and hence confusion over that statement.

I’m trying to get clarity from the company because the going concern statement makes no sense to me or at least is excessively cautious. The Orion refinancing moves all debt to the long term (greater than twelve months) and they will have seen significant cash generation Jan - April with moderate cash generation now.

They have been clumsy with their language many times before which I think is the case again here - I cannot see now they would need additional funding on top of the Orion deal unless V were to tank from here (hence the excessively cautious point).

Not happy as besides from that all is looking very positive with signs of the vanadium price moving north again.

Just to make it clear Hexam I'm certainly not saying that these results show they are a highly cash generative company, I'm talking 2023 onwards (yet to be announced to the market until interims).

HC - I can't quite reconcile your statement with the part in the results that says:

_____________________

The difference being this was last year... and I am intimately aware of the price of vanadium (especially US, BMN's biggest market), the costs to BMN (rand exchange rate plays a big part), the capex this year vs last etc so no they weren't profitable last year but they are now. Of course that can all change but there's optimism that Vanadium prices will rise throughout 2023 rather than fall.

I'm not sure that's the case, just seems like BMN and that management team being uber cautious as ever.

They generated cash in H2. Since vanadium price has risen significantly, (particularly Jan- late April and picking back up again), the rand is far weaker and there's minimal sustaining capex this year. BMN will actually end up with a cash figure not too far off the Orion repayment total by November and very close if they sell a decent portion of their inventory.

Today's end of December cash reveal was a surprise to the upside.

This has to be simply clumsy language. Not the first time it's been seen from Tanya sadly.

Xenor all I can say is that BMN must be one of the most unloved companies out there. In a few months it will be confirmed that they've returned to profitability and with the way V is looking (looks to have bottomed and starting to catch a bit of momentum) we could well be seeing NET profits around the $20m+ mark this year and YET the share price keeps falling.

This is another example where most likely Fortune simply wants a break after such a long tenure and perhaps the company needs a bit of a shake up at the top (arguably Fortune lacked the ability to sell this investment) and again it leads to a big sell off.

I'm as confident as I can be that this comes good though and when it does the share price will make up for the past few years in one fell swoop.

I accept that the wording of one of those statements is a bit grey though.

Squirty I'm sorry but you're wrong. 100%. BMN are currently generating cash and have significant cash in the bank, what they don't have is the funding to cover Orion UNTIL that deal is approved.

A highly cash generating company that has just raised $45m does not need further liquidity to survive. It's as simply as that.

But again, it's not approved yet so the going concern statement is needed.

MMs taking advantage of (despite the abuse on here from a minority) the stepping down of the very well respected co founder and CEO. Ridiculous opening price on virtually no volume.