Member Info for HarChris

Ha yeah Dan quarterly. There's still a lot of uncertainty out there and this attempt by Russia, China and other nations to detach from the dollar has many analysts believing in much higher gold prices in the months and years ahead but roughly speaking we should be looking at something like a price earnings ratio of 8 with gold at $1700, around 3.5 with gold at $1850 and more like 2.7 ish with gold at $2000 extrapolating out for $100k Oz , AISC around $1150 and all the extra costs and taxes. As you push towards the $2500 mark and beyond you'd start looking at a price earnings ratio moving towards 1.

Incredibly positive risk/return profile from here.

Well you got your pause - drab reaction so far.

+ this commentary from the broker note from just a few weeks ago gives a good summary:

https://twitter.com/MBdaytrading/status/1660581526700998656/photo/1

For the newbies that have only just come across Shanta following the recent fall here's a few things you should know.

Shanta finally finished the construction of their 30k Oz per annum Singida mine in March with the first gold pour on 30th March. This means Shanta should now be a 100k Oz producer with an AISC around $1100 Oz. For an idea of what this means to the bottom line first note that in Q3 $7m capex went into Singida construction, $8.2m in Q4, $6.7m in Q1 2023 and yet Shanta were able to operate at close to break even whilst producing just 65000 ounces.

We await full year guidance shortly but we're now looking at $25000 Oz per month production so around 90k Oz for 2023 and 100k Oz next year with an AISC that could drop below $1100. Current gold price even after recent fall is $1955 Oz.

The last time Shanta made a net profit was 2020 when the gold price averaged just $1495 oz for the year with production a little lower than what it will be this year. That year net income was $17.2m This year and beyond with the outlook for gold we could well be seeing many, many times that level and yet mcap today is a mere $125m.

Shanta is now a cash cow with no funding requirements before we even start talking about the potential of West Kenya.

This still relies on company execution and the gold price holding up but if both happen then we're going to be talking at least a doubling of the share price within twelve months now from here. Management just has so many options when they are making so much profit, have minimal debt and a market cap of just £100m.

The key news is already in, inflation is falling. We either get a surprise .25% today which signals the end of the hikes or we get a pause with one more likely rise later in 2023. Both are good news.

Either way the outlook is far far better but for whatever reason Bitcoin hasn’t reacted, I’m guessing all the uncertainty over the SEC stuff and binance recently.

Six months of sky high profits apparently counts for nothing? Will still be seeing enormous margins at 1950/oz so got to think there's the mother of all opportunities here unless gold were to continue to fall all the way down to sub 1800. Is that likely? I don't think so.

Pdub, I believe Fortune has spoken about this previously. When it comes to the inventory the vast majority of the costs are already sunk and all that is incurred is shipping/transportation costs when it is sold.

One thing that's very positive is the increased sales to the US although we only have Paludina's info for now rather than official numbers (Interims for that). If next year we are producing 5000mtV or at least very close it would be great to see evidence this year that we can comfortably sell ~4550mtV into the traditional markets and that would leave around 450mtV / 80MWh equiv to convert and sell as electrolyte next year, a figure that I think is reasonable.

What's happening here Pdub is that others aren't able to get their hand around the fact that BMN IS actually starting to see the benefits of the operational growth that's been going on over the past few years. Yes the likes of inflation, electricity price increases, load shedding are all a negative but what they aren't realising is without it BMN would be making huge profits right now and even with it they are still cash flow positive and will almost certainly post net income in H1.

We will see even more benefit as Vanchem continues to be fully optimised and we get to that 5000mtV run rate, possibly even as soon as the end of this year going by the most recent video with Fortune and if electricity costs and load shedding pressures ease as you would expect them to in time then those margins improve further still.

Far from ignoring the negatives I've been pointing out for ages how strong BMN is looking operationally GIVEN all those negatives.

Weren't we meant to have had full year results and a progress update by now? I had 'early June' pencilled in...

I suppose it's 30th June latest?

Back to the timeline we've been discussing on here.

What we are now likely to see is a bit of FOMO over the next few weeks due to an RNS expecting to land re BELCO and the hope that it includes some contracts, off-takes and more detail on what this pivotal step will mean for the bottom line going forward. Alongside that we're also aware that the full year results will definitely land within two weeks and two days and there's now reason to believe V prices have bottomed out and will start to rise.

All that together with the broader market sentiment improvement is a healthy recipe for a share price move north.

Trevor was one of the last of the current trolls still yet to be filtered but after that run of stupidity and then refusal to acknowledge it after being called out enough's enough. Here's the list of who's filtered so you can avoid responding or at least know you're being as snakey as it gets if you post about me as I can't see your comments / be able to respond:

Cindercone ; Benbutton ; HalfManHalfGoat ; ARCM101 ; TrevorBrooking

Trevor shared last week that he finally sold his shares he'd held onto for years from 31p at just 3.3p (or was it just below?). Individuals like that are going to feel scorned and frustrated and do all they can to convince themselves it was the right thing to do and that there was logic behind the above. It's just annoying for us when they can't take that anger out by punching a wall or speaking to a therapist and instead let it all play out on here instead.

Because you refuse to hear the counterargument and continue with your own blinkered narrative... guidance was given to us on the 31st Jan and at that point inflation was already at 6.8% and so it was factored into the guidance. How hard is that to understand? This is also included in the Jan 31st update:

' Costs reflect the national 18.65% electricity price increase announced by Eskom, South Africa's national utility, coming into effect from 1 April 2023, as well as the impact of load shedding on production.'

So all of that was factored in but the exchange rate wasn't. You're welcome to apologise now.

Not to forget the exchange rate used in this year's guidance which is even more conservative at just 16.6Rand. This means if mid guidance is achieved then the actual cash costs for the year as things stand (with YTD rand average at ~18.25 and rising) would be a good 10% lower than forecast.

Looking forward to this showing through in the accounts in the not too distant future now.

With all the news due over the coming weeks and months as I highlighted on here recently it's extremely positive to see vanadium prices rising this morning. Just China today but let's hope for gains across the board as anticipation builds for the updates.

We all know how quickly this can move when momentum gathers pace.

Not at all, in my opinion it's the complete opposite. He is a bull and will always be, his predictions were always pie in the sky numbers that were way higher than whatever the current price was. Back when bitcoin was really hitting the mainstream it rose to the numbers he guessed at and so it brought him right into the spotlight and gave him credibility. As far as I can see there's no substance behind any of it, he's just a provocateur that's been capable of taking advantage of the time in the spotlight and is enjoying it whilst he can. And if bitcoin goes on another bull run he'll once again gain huge attention and be lauded by the likes of you.

There are many highly skilled and respected financial experts in the space but from what I can see Max Keiser is not one of them.

Jan 2021 with bitcoin at $35K Max Keiser predicts $220K by the end of the year... actual price end of year $46K

https://cryptopotato.com/winklevoss-7-year-bitcoin-price-prediction-comes-true-as-max-keiser-envisions-220000-by-dec-2021/

Jan 2022 Keiser then sticks with his $220K target saying it will be hit at some point that year, yet it never even reached $50k

https://dailyhodl.com/2022/01/17/bitcoin-bull-max-keiser-updates-220000-btc-prediction-heres-his-timeline/

They are no better at predicting the future bitcoin price than me or you.

'I am not sure how you can extrapolate someone (or anyone), who buys and sells various stocks with the aim of making a profit which is the only reason for the exercise, (for everyone), with deciding on their moral outlook in life?'

If you're an investor that only puts money into companies they believe can make a truly beneficial difference to the world then you are making ethical decisions. Is it altruism? Arguably not unless you plan to give away profit to causes you care about but either way it's not for you to conclude that anyone investing in Avacta is doing it for profits plain and simple.

Hard to see this drop as anything but inevitable. You can't simply have no other strategy but survival and expect your share price to hold up in a sector like this... The question is at what price is taking a punt on Argo surviving worth the risk?