Member Info for HarChris

Nasdaq roaring, bitcoin holding up okay, Mara announces a massive 1245BTC mined for May, shares down 4%.

What's happening out of interest?

Must re-listing and BE update of course could come anytime and likely adds to the news-rich period but as the dates for those are impossible to predict I kept it to the five upcoming updates we can be sure of.

We're now entering the part of the year that sees updates come thick and fast, some of which are routine and others that relate to major projects completing so I thought it would be helpful to give a rough timeline of updates below:

Full Year Results, June 30th latest. Will be looking back to 2022 but will also get year-to-date/post period commentary as well as (likely) a March 31st cash figure. This is followed by an Investor Meeting with Fortune and Q&A.

BELCO hot commissioning complete/plant operational - expected in H1 so end of month latest. Will this come with off-takes news? Guidance for H2?

Q2 results - Late July.

Mini-Grid completion - expected mid 2023, anytime from June through to August?

Interim results - Mid to late September, will fill in detail following the Q2 update and give us a more comprehensive understanding of where the business is at.

_____________________________-

That's a lot of news over the next 14-15 weeks.

This is big news. As we all well aware we're pretty much at the point where increasing demand from non HSLA steel, most notably vrfbs but also specialist chemicals and titanium alloys, is having enough impact to counteract falling steel demand but with the former still making up 85% of global demand obviously it's still crucial to the overall picture.

It's clear what a chinese stimulus package that boosts steel demand is going to do to the vanadium price...

'Thanks Harchris, as it happens it went in ITS on Thursday and back out on Friday for a 180% gain.'

____________________________________________________

Hehe I five bagged last week on a number of investments myself. Both winning. Gl with your next daily 180% gain :)

Yes you're right, a placing has been confirmed a few weeks ago... at 6p.

Do a bit of research.

So you held on to some of those shares all the way down from 31p before selling them this week for what, 3.2p? It will be interesting to see if you waited over three years to sell at a 90% loss only to catch the very bottom! Good luck with whatever that money is invested in next.

This was shared by BBN on twitter a week ago: https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1660645225247678465

Good news all the same.

This is an important update, I really thought they were just going to bumble along telling investors nothing and just praying bitcoin went on a bull run before the interims.

Will be an interesting read that's for sure.

I'm only just looking into Coris now, that acquisition came out of the blue and to be honest, i'm invested in Avacta for the therapeutics not the diagnostics. My post was to highlight the stark difference between the two companies at the moment - if anything avacta holders are a bit concerned that there's too much activity on this front that might distract and take funding from the main focus whilst here we're crying out for activity!

Anyway take a look at Coris Bioconcept if you're interested, there's lots on their website: https://www.corisbio.com/presentation/company-profile

I should add that whilst it’s possible to calculate a likely current cash figure with all we know ($25m give or take $5m) there are of course lots of unknowns which are capable of surprising to the upside or downside. But too big an unforeseen issue would have had to occur for the figure to be low enough for there to need to be a sudden cash raise and those issues would have needed to be shared with the market.

So I’m comfortable saying I’m sure as it’s possible to be on that front.

Johnpwh I can assure you that no capital raise is needed. I’m as sure as I can be that the cash figure is minimum $20m currently and likely $30m due to the increase in US sales at the peak of March prices and that much of the CLN could have been paid off in cash but fortune is the conservative type and not the sort of ceo that would be comfortable reducing the cash so significantly when there are other options.

We’ll get a decent picture in just three to four weeks with the full year results.

My investment decision is based on better production than in the note which they highlight is conservative, a higher V price than they have used (they don’t account for higher US prices which we’ve seen for eighteen months and are likely to continue seeing, by far our largest market) and then factors such as a weak and entrenched exchange rate if it reduces costs by tens of millions are worth pointing out seeing as that cost reduction alone isn’t far off our current mcap!

Got no problem with people like you selling and then hanging around on here finding negatives to post and willing the share price down to make you feel better, you’re free to do so.

I’d bear in mind just how much difference the exchange rate is making at the moment. They include it in their risks to the upside and yet stuck with a Rand conversion rate below 17 for the financial analysis- actual costs for 2023 are going to be tens of millions less which turns those financials upside down.

Putting novacyt to shame on the diagnostics side alone despite it being only a sideshow to the groundbreaking therapeutics division.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AVCT/avacta-acquires-coris-bioconcept-7rukjkhn6m70755.html

That Nitrovan premium is 5% Pdub - that may not seem much but at these prices it's an extra $2/kgV - this year we're heading for 2000t+ delivered to the US so $4m+ extra profit from the premium.

Small percentages make a big difference.

And if prices are agreed at shipping and delivery takes about 6 weeks this means the bulk of these sales are a month either side of the mid March peak hence more than $40/kgV sales price.

Quite some profit being seen here.

We've never seen such consistency in deliveries to the US like we have so far in 2023, with no month below 100t of vanadium shipped - very positive.

I imagine it will continue to work the way it always has, in boom times in periods of risk-on, risk taking times AIM will be the place to make money but the opposite also holds true, that in times of macroeconomic uncertainty, of high interest rates, of global recessions money will leave AIM in droves.

It's no surprise that the FTSE AIM All-Share Index is down since its inception in 1995. The FTSE250 has multiplied over 4 times over that same period and that difference is far larger when including dividends.

If you happen to buy in at the peak of AIM euphoria (which was mid 2021) only for liquidity to fall off a cliff then yes you're likely to find yourself down in every investment over that sort of time period.