Member Info for HarChris

Whilst the debt gets talked about non stop (and rightfully so) we know it can be managed and are simply waiting for the Orion documentation to be finalised and for shareholders to approve it at AGM but what's not talked about enough is the value of the assets. From the full year report we know at the end of the year we had cash of $10.9m and a stockpile now valued at $55m. We can also get a good idea of what Vanchem is worth seeing as it initially cost $68m to acquire but reduced to $53.5m for a number of factors but most notably the lack of attention and interest in vanadium at the time (V in Europe was just $21/kgV, VRFB were far from guaranteed to ever make mass market and stationary storage was never talked about). With the vanadium market's outlook transformed and its place in the energy transition secured + tens of millions invested already into it you can be damn sure that valuation is many times the $53.5m BMN eventually paid for it.

I think we'd all agree that Vametco as a stable 2800mtV producing mine with its VRFB mini grid is also worth a bob or two. And the electrolyte plant? Then there's just under 25% ownership of Cellcube which is estimated at $20m+ alone and the list goes on and on.

You are constantly twisting people's words. What I certainly said in Q1 was if vanadium prices across our geographies could hold up for the rest of the year (when it was $43/kgV across the group) then alongside a fraction of the stockpile being sold BMN would generate more than enough cash to cover the Orion debt in full.

That has by no means happened so it doesn't apply but I do think they're still sitting on ~$20m cash, albeit very much around break even at this point so no building up further as we approach November unless V starts rising again.

No impact to BMN from load shedding whatsoever now. Confirmed on Wednesday.

Not to mention that all these wannabe producers are relying on far higher vanadium prices than we are seeing to get their projects over the line which suggests to me they'll struggle which was cause further pressure on supply as the vrfb battery sectors continues to grow.

Going back to AVL, they require $10.5/lb V205 in order to reach break even in 7.3 years - current v205 price is 30% lower than that and makes the project unviable.

Eatstocks you only have to look across to those in pre production to see what BMN's assets are worth and how much it would take to replicate their operations. AVL's DFS for example concludes that it'll cost about $500m to reach the size akin to what Bushveld will be next year and we all know that in reality huge projects like that generally come in well over budget.

The market cap is obviously ridiculous right now but it is what it is and it's going to take time for confidence to return here.

Very satisfying seeing the share price rising like this and just one or two derampers left trying their hardest to fight against the tide. This is simply a delayed reaction to the great news we got in January and there's every reason to believe that we're over the worst of the downward pressure now as we get ever closer to starting 1B alongside so many other platform catalysts.

Thanks to all the great posters on here that do such a good job of keeping everyone so well informed.

There's some truth to what alfredh has just said but not quite accurate.

Vanadium prices are close to the two year low although still far higher than historic lows. More importantly US prices have remained elevated compared to the rest of the world and BMN sells ~45% of their vanadium to that market.

It's also worth pointing out that relatively speaking vanadium prices have held up better than many other metals which is something to bear in mind, if this is the worst of it following a significant drop in steel demand then things will look very rosy on the flip side... And if you look at the most recent results you'll see BMN actually managed to increase their cash position through H2 2022 with V price FAR lower than H1 2023 which is extremely positive.

Ps Highveld I was not expecting such a kind message, really appreciated!

I am interested, yeah. Could you invite me to the group please? My username is Chris Harry

S&B, you signed up on here last month and now you're pretending to have withstood abuse for time immemorial and are finally vindicated. The share price was already 96% down from ATHs when you popped up to stick the knife in.

So what's causing such a share price disconnect between Tirupati and NextSource in your opinion Andii? Is it the alternative (and cheaper) way Tirupati went about their production which the market wants to see before believing? Are NextSource funded to a higher stage of production with cash in the bank?

Ben who's to say we aren't? In an interview about three weeks ago Fortune said Vanchem should be at that 2500mtV+ run rate later in 2023 so it's possible that we are seeing those sorts of numbers now and Q2 smashes expectations but my point was that we should at a bare minimum see improved numbers from all the info we've already been given.

Yeah, management wanted to highlight how much improvement was being seen at Vanchem by sharing an up to date production figure in Q1. So for Vanchem we saw just 121mtV for Jan and Feb combined,141mtV in March and then, crucially, 117mtV between April 1st and April 24th. In other words we know for certain that the quarter at Vanchem started well and April was on target for 145-150mtV and if the trend continues then we'll see an almost doubling of production quarter on quarter (262mtV Q1 vs ~440mtV).

Guidance was also reiterated as of 21st June and we were informed that there's been no negative impact from load shedding so putting all this together gives hope for a decent Q2 at the very least.

To be fair this is the first year in which we would expect the investment to produce profit and we’re yet to have any audited or unaudited statements so it’s a bit premature to assume there won’t be a profit this year.

We need the interims at the bare minimum to get a clearer picture.

If you were to guess how long do you think it'll be til the April-June production numbers are released and Shishir is going round the small cap interview circuit? As soon as two weeks?

Ha I bought a few Mara the other day as the rally started kicking off but not enough to really make much of a dent in my portfolio. Waiting (/hoping) for a bit of a pullback now to commit a bit more!

Not sure if mentioned on here yesterday but they also stated clearly that they are having to deal with absolutely no load shedding now due to (i) the agreement with Emalahleni municipality and (ii) improvements in load shedding more generally.

Nada.

I was one of those that said Argo is finished if bitcoin doesn't go on a rally within six months. I think that was a fair comment and essentially what I kept saying was if you believe in the next bitcoin bull run beginning in 2023 then there's huge value here, if you don't you're risking having your capital wiped out.

This move in bitcoin is extremely positive and is suggestive of more than a simple bear market relief rally imo.

Not the case today, Chinese public holiday so that’s just showing the rises from yesterday.

There’s also many like me that believed Fortune had done brilliantly to get BMN to where they were but continually failed to communicate that progress and also failed to sell the story. Whilst I chose not to criticise him publicly in case it was wrongly misconstrued I’ve been highly critical elsewhere and obviously there gets to a point where certain failures over an extended period of time might just mean inability in those areas.

To have the company positioned like this but with a CEO that can communicate it is the best of both worlds, so fingers crossed Craig turns out to be that missing piece of the puzzle.

Impressive move this ! !