Member Info for hants

Comek.

Are you suggesting that we wait for people to get Covid-19 and then, once they've already got it, give them the vaccine?

The point of a vaccine is to give it to people BEFORE (yes I can do capital letters as well) they catch the disease, thus the person makes antibodies against the disease meaning they have immunity should they later be exposed to it.

Seem to get a different set of posters on this board over the weekend! Perhaps we should summarise the key points from the weekends chat, ready for those logging on tomorrow morning?

-Definitely getting taken over on Monday morning.

-But if we don't get taken over future share price £20-£100 (approximately).

-Some guy on Twitter found an Astra Zeneca article from 8th April which mentions 'new partners' so obviously that's definitely us (above share price estimate therefore likely conservative imo).

-Testing more important than vaccines because you don't give people vaccines until they're already ill which means they all need to be tested first.

-If you don't understand how testing works the best analogy is flatulance. (See "farting in the wind" thread which has 23 replies).

I think that's all the key points.

Good luck all.

Comek I have no idea how your post just got three upvotes. That literally makes no sense.

Haven't you ever had a vaccine?

What about assets over 30 million? Assets in 2018 were 23.45 million?

Surely that would be the more likely?

I dont see anything in this Twitter post worth getting excited about? 2+2=5?

And that Astra Zeneca screenshot is from the 8th April.

Looks like he's still posting info so lets see what happens, but there's nothing credible there at the moment imo. All it indicates is that Astra Zeneca are trying to do something similar with regards netralising antibodies with un-specified new partners.

Looks like you're correct POI, so I was miles out (on the ambitious side!).

Apparently it normally takes about 10 years.

We still haven't had the news of other partnerships.

I expected one to arrive last week (as I'm sure many others did too), so I very much expect it for this week coming.

We did get a fantastic RNS though, so I am certainly not complaning.

RichKen, just seen your post after I had made my 1935 post.

I think you've hit the nail on the head there! The public want to think there will be a vaccine and the Government must be seen to try.

The wider public probably don't realise the chances of having a succesful vaccine and having it through trials and ready to be deployed in time to be useful, are seemingly not that good, based on past vaccine production.

I did read the statistic for the fastest a succesful vaccine has ever been made, but can't recall it nor find it. It was a long time, though... Defintely long enough that we wouldn't have an economy if we stayed in lockdown and waited for it! I think it was something like 18 months?

The above said, there is a global effort to find one so perhaps it might happen. We'll find out eventually.

The Government are making a point of showing they are helping to fund the efforts to find a vaccine.

Simultaneously, they are making a very specific point of warning the public a vaccine may never arrive.

IF a vaccine is found they might be able to make it fast enough for the relatively small population we have in the UK, but we are still talking about a problem on a global scale. Theres also the cost implication for poorer countries. It would take years so I can see affordable, rapid testing being the norm for some time.

Flying machine.

Interesting, just done some quick googling.

As far as I can tell, they hope to have it within 6 months and there's no indication of any existing progress. In addition, I can't even find information on what the sample will be?

Do you have any more information?

Notmyjob - I know right. 3 minutes of research is enough to tell anybody why that's highly unlikely!

It doesn't even warrant a response.

Roxbury - it was a top up as my original entry was 40p, plus a couple of more buys in the 50s. But yes, perhaps I might have bought your shares!

Profits profit though. If you're happy with what you've made, there's nothing wrong with 'take the money and run.'

Maybe I'm less risk adverse, but when will the next opportunity be to invest in a company which is due to have a product most of the world population is going to be buying? And probably with little competition (at least in the short term, it seems). If I'm wrong and land flat on my face, I won't be cross with myself. It's a rare opportunity, so I'm taking it and seeing it through.

I think the party is only just getting started at AVCT and there's still a big upside. I expect an exponential increase in share price if/when Cytiva (and other partners) get the lateral flow test working. We've had virtually no major media coverage, but I expect a feeding frenzy from all the various media outlets when it becomes more certain.

New lab tests have been covered by the media, but they're not something which will catch the interest of the masses. Something you will be buying in the shops and using regularly as part of your daily life is bound to get a lot of interest. I can picture the headlines now! "New instant test to bring an end to lockdown!"

I'm sure we've all seen what a bit of media coverage can do to a share price.

I don't have a target price. I will definitely reduce my holding at some point eventually, but I doubt I'll sell the lot. It's all about the Covid-19 test right now, but the cancer stuff could be the big winner here (if you wait months/years). The money made from the Covid testing royalties will help to fund it no doubt.

Interesting you say about AML as I began researching it yesterday. I'm lurking on that board although I've not posted. Very cheap at the moment but they're not out of the woods yet. If I feel it's becoming de-risked but is still cheap enough to have a significant upside, I'll probably join you on that one! At this moment in time, it's one that could give me sleepness nights. I think that's a most risky share than this one. With AVCT, there's more than one bite at the cherry so IMO this remains a better bet.

Everything IMO. DYOR etc.

Steelwatch - I trade with IG Markets. On there it's a tab just above the buy/sell prices. If you have their app installed on your phone you'll get a notifcation when the level is reached. You can also write a note to self, like 'top slice half' or whatever.

Just to following on from my below post, something do I use A LOT, is price alerts on my phone. I set alerts at numerous levels both above and below the current price. That way if anything horrible happens whilst I'm busy doing something else, I can look at that share straight away and see what's going on.

Probably pointing out the obvious here for many people, but hopefully this simple tip helps somebody and maybe saves them losing a lot of money one day/helps them to sell at the right time.

Stop losses have their place but AVCT has been moving upwards with some significant drops along the way.

Lets say you set a stop loss at 105 when we were at 120 which is about 12.5% below, seems reasonable. (Approx numbers).

On Thursday you would've been taken out. On Friday morning you could've sold for 140. That would leave you feeling a bit sick I imagine.

Look at the fundamentals. If you're confident, just buy and ride the waves. Look at the Novacyt chart for February through March.

Very well said Tony.

As others have pointed out, AVCT is still a speculative buy. The Affimers work, but there isn't a working lateral flow test using said Affimers on the market. Does this worry me? Not at all.

I've been here since exactly 40p and could walk away now with a very considerable profit. I haven't even top sliced, infact as my post history will show I actually bought more last week - landing on my feet with the RNS arrived the following morning! (Probably the fastest profit I've ever made, very lucky).

So far the great Sir Al has underpromised and overdelivered. Avacta had their Affimers ready well ahead of the indicated timeframe. Then, out of the blue dropped at RNS to say they might even be able to use their Affimers to fight off the disease.

He says that they will have a lateral flow test and I have every confidence in him. I'm not aware of anything he has said to date which has been misleading for shareholders and given false hope.

To my knowledge, there is currently no declared rival product which is likely to be able to compete with what Avacta say they can deliver. I believe that even if Avacta isn't first to market, it will be the best when the product is approved and goes to market. At that point, who was first to market will become irrevelant. It will be a case of product quality vs price, plus manufacture and distribution capacity. We are currently under the impression that Avacta/Cytiva (and probably any other major partners) will tick all of those boxes.

When we hear some numbers and pricing, I don't expect to be dissapointed.

re. Open Orphan - I have a holding there too. Bought in around the same time I bought into Avacta. I don't think it has the potential to do multiples (at least not in the short term), but it's not a share I'm losing any sleep over either. Like Sir Al, Cathal Friel is somebody who I really have faith in.

The expected news still hasn't landed, so probably not!

I certainly don't plan on selling any of mine for 143, put it that way!

I thought about trying to sell this morning and buy back but decided against it.

Whilst we generally see an RNS at 7am, we need to remember another one could land anytime, even the same day. Look what happened over at Genedrive, okay not quite the same thing as the second one was negative, but that caught a lot of people out.

We can't assume that just because we've had an RNS that another isn't going to arrive.

The fantastic news this morning IS NOT the news we were expecting. And we are STILL EXPECTING the expected news (announcements on other partners)!

After being here for so many weeks, I would hate to press sell and then see that RNS icon light up before I've bought back in.

I've just finished my morning coffee and remembered I topped up on the dip yesterday. I must say, by complete luck that was perfectly timed!

Alastair Smith has been pulling rabbits out of a hat. However, I think he bought himself a new hat this morning.