RE: Radio Silence9 Mar 2026 10:09
Agreed BeepBoop on the hallucinations.
In this case though I'm more trusting of what ChatGPT has generated because it's very general commentary in what it's returned rather than returning specific articles, quotes, etc. Some of the points stated are ultimately common sense, especially around the legal advice where companies are advised to be vague and say as little as possible. It's almost as if Lisa and Tim are following legal advice..... And I'll reiterate the point I made that Lisa is using the same text when replying to people. It's as if she's got a pre-vetted statement that is legally OK to distribute.
The results also back up my view that IMM can't say anything at this stage. While certain posters are stating that IMM can say something in an RNS, in reality, they can't and I wouldn't want them to either.
Out of interest (and to wind up the usual suspects) I asked GrokAI what would be a typical takeover deal value be for IMM based on targeting $25billion in revenue in a $100bn market and with a late stage asset. While taking it with a big pinch of salt, the answer that it came back with was anywhere between $2bn to $4bn for a takeover. This was because of improved chances of trial success in a phase 3 due to better patient selection. And I've not specified anything about the Avion USA deal so I'd expect lower figures if this is factored in. Assuming US is 50% of the total market, we'd maybe be looking at $1bn to $2bn for ROW.
I also asked if a lowly share price would result in a low offer. It replied saying that a buyer would be looking far closer at the potential revenue streams and would price accordingly based on rNPV, not on the market cap of the business. From that we can assume that big pharma would be focusing more on the science and it's financial potential rather than on the integrity of the management team, size of company, etc.
Fully expecting the flip flop crew to jump on this AI result but the offer will be the offer based on the science. What I've posted is a bit of fun while we wait for the necessary radio silence to end.
GLA genuine LTH's!