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Burfords share price is a at least 20% below what it should ordinarily be at right now, and that's completely without factoring in any multi billion dollar YPF settlement award, so our court win and expected big pay out hasn't really even touched our share price at all, Though that should change somewhat in a few months time, a lot of people don't get this opportunity at all, they see Argentina pleading poverty with it's mis -managed economy being destroyed by its past political parties, and think to themselves where will Argentina get around $8.4 billion a to pay us, the country looks so financially broken and in debt, though nearly every country in the world is seriously in some kind of serious debt, even the UK and especially America, Argentina can create another set of interest paying bonds on our award, with Argentina having to service the interest on these bonds, if the polical will is there then it can be easily arranged and done, so burford needs to first go on a charm offensive with specialist negotiating teams to the old or new arriving Argentine parties, and failing that then it's straight into freezing Argentine assets from around the world, as long as we have this very large court award then it's a massive settlement award against a sovereign country that just sits there for as long as it takes to collect that award, burford is a specialist at converting monetary awards into bankable money, look at how they banked $260 million from this case already, and without even getting a winning court judgement at all, amazing, we didn't expect that stroke of genius move , so I'm very confident Burford will deliver a spectacular financial amount of money into Burfords coffers, one way or another burford will make Argentina pay its financial monetary obligations. Only a fool would be out of these shares right now , a very substantial re-rating of our shares is only months away now. Though the share price probably won't truly reflect this massive potential right now, it wouldn't surprise me at all if our shares were at between £14 to £18 or even a lot more by Xmas. I would have no hesitation at recommending Burfords share right now, brilliant company and prospects.
PDYOR, never buy on anyone's say so.
GLA
I'm not invested here , though watching for several months now, interesting investors chronicle just tipped it a several weeks ago,
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/07/12/why-is-rbg-one-of-the-lowest-rated-stocks-in-london/
Though now the dead wood is possibly cleared then longer term a speculative buy position might be considered , when dividends eventually get paid out again then they should be reasonably generous . One to watch I say.
GLA
I'm not invested here though this should bounce back very soon if not just tomorrow morning after investors and the markets realise there's no real risk at all here to that grasping at straws in desperation to stall or derail the LIT case, these sorts of things happen frequently in litigation , the lawyers know they won't win , though they will nearly always try and stall the paying out of compensation awards. The supreme court should see it for what it is, just desperate people doing desperate things to avoid paying out. LIT has no concerns here. A definite buying opportunity ok.
GLA
So how does this impact our share price and valuation after we get that approximate $16.8 billion dollar judgement,
I believe Argentina when they say the country is in financial poverty, though they themselves had no pity at all for the innocent people/ investors who lost their money when they effectively stole those billions of dollars in share money from investors, no apology at all, no compensation at all, no reasonableness at all to even address the situation, so does any judge , jury or investor care about the Argentine financial poverty plight, absolutely no, it's ridiculous to even consider under all these circumstances.
So what I think will happen is that Burford will get this full $16.8 billion dollar judgement ok , and would probably be best served to fight tooth in nail for every penny of that full amount over many many years, and let the Argentine state approach Burford if they want to do a sensible deal, because as long as they avoid a settlement , then burford can keep that full $16.8 billion dollar amount alive and kicking and work away taking as much money as they can possibly find and get their hands on,
Yes it will probably take a very long time to pull billions of dollars in from Argentine interest from all over the world, this in itself will cause immense problems for the Argentine state and from all around the world, so even If Burford manages to get a few billion dollars , sure the rest can be worked on for many years more, the full outstanding award can sit for decades until we get our money or Argentina comes to the table. Burford has fantastic connections and contacts to find out where Argentina's assets are ,and freeze them ASP, and slowly and painfully for Argentina our settlement money will truly add up, a sovereign government owes Burford $16.8 billion dollars in a court award and the stock markets don't even marginally factor in any real potential amount at all, it's unbelievable in my eye's, though sooner or later they will have to acknowledge this financial fact, with our share price rising substantially from the realisation that Burfords ability to substantially collect from this award is real and to be reckoned with by Argentina. Just look how Burford collected from that Russian billionaire, not many people thought they would get him to the table, and they did a spectacularly job there ok. So Argentina will be brought to the negotiating table one way or another. with our share price rising accordingly.
I'm on holiday so just dropping in here, good luck everyone. Please DYOR.
It will be a brave amusing person who makes a serious call on how this ypf case effects the shares right now,
I've said this before maybe we should all take our lead from the Argentine state itself, sure it was they themselves who provided their own parliament to the potential pay out amount on this ypf case, and that was $8.4 billion dollars, that's after a normal 50% reduction in our award from $16.8 billion dollars, they themselves are legally obligated to give this information to their own parliament, so maybe it would have been a excellent court lead tactic to officially ask the Argentine state for their own paper work as to how they themselves arrived at that actual $8.4 billion dollar Argentine pàrliment submitted figure, in those paper's the truth should be easily revealed and that should also back up our own reasoning around our own dates and compensation amounts, Argentina scored a own goal there with their own legally bound parliamentary disclosure.
It just goes to show us that there still is plenty of Argentine assets around if you know where to look for them, $4.15 million dollars those USA creditors have seized on Argentina in America.
Excellent work Sebastian maril.
GLA
TWT, agree, the shorters have a excellent company to short in with burford, it's so complicated for the average investor that when the shares drop a lot they often don't know what's causing the drop, the accounting terminologies in the results and accounts could confuse the smartest of people, then you have the different usage of accounting words in two different countries, I myself was asked by trading 212 if I wanted to lend my shares to 3rd parties at a good interest rate, this was possibly for institutional shorters and investors in America and the uk, I ignored the request as I don't want anyone shorting burford,
It's astonishing that a multi billion dollar company can gyrate in it's share price so easily, though the AIM will cause these problems anyway, and maybe the American listed shares are following the AIM shares to often, but I guess it work's both ways going up and going down, with the American market doing the same to the aim listing.
I have to totally agree that this year will be one of the best years ever, and that's not hype at all, it's just looking at the facts in front of our eyes, yes just two months until our next set of results, also if I remember right we tend to settle more claims in the latter part of the year than at the start of the year. So it should be joyful fireworks at the years end here. LOL.
Also if we get a favourable award amount and very soon, then who knows Burford might just cash all their chips in early and grab as much money right now this year. Though they would have to settle for a lot less taking this action. If they walked away with even 1 billion dollars for us alone I still would be very impressed. Who r
really wants to hold a Argentine IOU debt right now. !? Done know what's going to happen, though it should be a rewarding and exciting year ok.
DYOR, GLA.
There is no justification for the size of the drop in the last few days, I suspect market manipulators are driving the shares down again to pick them up again at much lower levels than they started selling their shares, every 3 or so months they use this tactic to make money, and then move on to other unfortunate companies, if the share price very strangely drops or rises without any obvious reason then it's very probable they are doing their manipulating stuff. So maybe Burfords shares will bounce back to a reasonable level in the next day or so, though that could be complicated because of the judge Preska situation today, I guess we will find out soon enough if we're bouncing back to higher levels.
DYOR, GLA
Everything as expected in our results, with much more to come in the rest of the year,
Robin59 yes I could live with a 63..5 % dividend yield LOL. In our dreams we'll get that yield LOL. Stranger things have happened in the stock markets.. For the life of me I can't understand why the markets don't bring our shares up to at least £12+ pound's per share.right now. !!!
DYOR, GLA
The Burford team were very confident and positive in that last investors presentation, though I'm expecting them to be even much more confident the next time round, as they should get a better feel for what might get realised with our upcoming court cases, I'm actually astonished that our share price isn't comfortably over that £11 figure and pushing on to and over the £12 Mark and eventually heading towards that Jefferies price target of £18.20 , now if Burford can get this award sum to favour them in the highest figure and award category then they can surely think about selling some or all of the award off to 3rd parties and instantly locking a substantial figure into it's balance sheet and earnings for this year. So yes it's more than possible that we could hit £18.20 way before Jefferies expected time targets, the shares maybe basically languishing because of the time of year and fantastic weather we're getting, people are just enjoying this unusual weather, who wants to buy shares when there's much nicer things to do outside in the sunshine, how long did we wait to say goodbye to the £6 share price !!! , but we did ok, the market wants all the evidence and won't give to much for nothing here, I'm more than confident that this year will blow the doomsayers away from Burfords share price and leave us with something between £18.20 and £20+ a share. I genuinely and honestly think that share price range is a fair and reasonable amount to price our shares at in 2023 . There's not to many other shares I would want to be in right now other than holding this recessionary proof companies shares. Let's hope our BOD wet our appetite and with more good news for this year and beyond on the 13th june.
Please DYOR , GLA.
The big money is pouring into Burford now, just look at the sustained big buys here, though it's all justifiable because of the massive earnings that are expected this year and beyond, if we can get Argentina into a normal legally bound requirement to post a very substantial surety Bond then they could be financially compelled to come to the negotiating table and give Burfords negotiating team a substantial fair offer , though it all depends on the size of the surety Bond required, as essentially that bond amount belongs to burford and it's other institutional investors, after all these difficult years Burford is getting very close to where it deserves to be, and that's to a fair share price that reflects its true value and potential.
Lets hope that Argentina will have to post say even a $8.4 billion surety bond, because that's around the actual settlement figure that's mooted by respected experts and also Argentina itself , I personally can't see the bond being this high though I really hope it definitely is this high, if it is as high as $8.4 billion dollars then Burfords shares will soar immediately on that news , and I can't see Burford selling off to much off this bond money because of any new appeals by Argentina, I actually think the court should make Argentina post a bond as high as $8.4 billion dollars because then they can't waste the courts time and authority with appeals that the court knows itself won't win, so telling Argentina if your that sure you can overturn the courts verdict then you won't mind at all posting a $8.4 billion dollar surety bond, so it's negotiate with Burford now or
and up having a $16.8 billion dollar full judgement award to deal with and little room to negotiate that amount downwards. So we could very well have a negotiated settlement award this year ,and courtesy of this big upcoming surety Bond amount.
Whatever happens Burfords shares are going to motor on here until we hit a share price of around £18.20 to possibly over £20+ I'm really confident of this happening this year. A truly fantastic year ahead.
Please DYOR GLA
The shares are well up this morning ? You just never know how long they stay up with these shares, I hope preska picks the earliest court date , though it would be more likely she would try to accommodate Argentina because of the courts need to be seen to give Argentina every legal chance with their losing court case, we don't want Argentina to complain that they were seriously hampered in preparing their case because of time restrictions.
Big thanks to Sebastian Maril and of course our own respected TWT here for these early post, we all make little typo mistakes , though I make more than most people here,
Wouldn't it be great if preska just split the difference between the two court date applications to be fair to both parties.
DYOR, GLA.
Q1 results , surly if you know anything about investing then you would surely care about the company who's shares you actually own ? and your up coming Q1 results ? I certainly want to know and I do care as most investors care here ?
Yes that was what Sebastian maril was probably tweeting about youonly, though I respectfully disagree with your assumption that nothing will happen until the end of October , you did state here that this case can go forward without any posting of a court led surety bond , you were incorrect here according to Sebastian maril, so Argentina may have a serious problem here if they are required to post a massive surety bond, this in itself may cause Argentina to come to the negotiating table a long time before it wants too. In fact possibly very soon ? or not.
Frustrating times youonly, though my screen will stay on just like your own.
Your normally a really excellent poster youonly, though your last wasn't your very best, please don't turn your screen off ,
you may miss something good , though probably not my post LOL.
We should all just enjoy this fantastic sunny weather because Burford will do whatever it's going to do anyway.
DYOR, GLA.