Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I'm perplexed here, it was always my understanding that Argentina had to post a potentially large surety Bond if they wanted to appear the courts verdict, and the reason that no surety Bond has not been applied yet r is because judge preska has not been able to factually determine the date from which the award should run from , so Argentina is using this window of opportunity to try to appeal to preska that their Argentine court award settlement protocols should be followed, this their own judges intervention, thus the current wait to see what the Argentine judge says and then what preska takes from all that, on the face of it and where we are now preska thinks it's a $16 billion dollar award, as she's simply taking that from the YPF rule book or shareholders contract ,in as much as if Argentina 're nationalises YPF ,then the shareholder contract plainly states what is to be paid out to it's own shareholders.
So either way Burford wins here, no bond equals burford being free to seize Argentine assets from around the world.
With a bond then part thereof we have hard cash to collect in any surety bond, though unable to collect before any appeal is heard and won and finalised, so preska has to shortly freely determine the award size or amount, and surely that's when she is free to apply the surety Bond amount if Argentina then wants to appeal, everyone is saying they will always appeal everything, so it's the actual size of that bond that potentially determines just how much we can potentially bank in this YPF case, everything else is wishful thinking and years away bar burford selling this case award to 3rd parties and collecting on this case even this year, and that's a strong possibility considering that is what Burford normally likes to do with these big complex types of cases. Bank it now and let someone else wait for the actual award.
Please feel free to correct me if anything isn't or looking correct here, no offence taken at all. It's just what I thought was correct. It maybe wrong ?
Please DYOR GLA
The expected extra carrying value in our past accounting and assets values shouldn't really add to the share price other than to create a sense of burford being absolutely right and essentially badly wronged by the muddy waters affair,
I think the market and investors are just looking at the big YPF case win and the potential to collect any award. and then to Burfords actual ordinary earnings this year , I've no doubts for my expectations that this year will be the best year on record due to the pent up pandemic case load.
The legal world should be or is back to normal trading with a expected increase in litigation work coming from a soft ?
recession . this should be great news for funders.
My eyes are on the actual size of the YPF case surety Bond that Preska places on this case, as in part thereof then that's Burfords hard cash from this case that's on the table, this should enthuse and wet the market and investors appetite for Burfords shares,
The actual current last minute tactics of the Argentine lawyers is somwhat suspicious to me, to ask a female Argentine commercial judge to give evidence in person on a appeal stinks of desperation or some kind or legal plot by the Argentine side to pull a legal political stunt to publicly have this whole case decided by the USA and Argentine courts, if a Argentine commercial judge advises the USA courts that they are wrong ,then is it a stunt for Argentina to say we need more time to consider all the evidence in both jurisdictions, as their own judge is saying preska is wrong. It doesn't matter if Argentina is wrong, they are only possibly after another stalling of this case because of their own judges intervention, why not just have a video conferencing for this Argentine judge, why would she travel 6000 miles to say something in person when she could write everything down on paper or speak on a video call, all very suspicious, I could obviously be totally wrong here, when you talking $16 billion dollars then people will do anything to avoid paying out, that's why the surety Bond money is money in the bank for Burfords shareholders.
For me this YPF case is a unbelievable bonus for Burford,though the future normal earnings of over $600 million dollars per year is what I'm here for, when that starts to compound year after year then the shares should easily fly past £20+ and I do mean easily, yes exciting times ahead, yes the shares will go up and down though eventually well over £20+ I've no doubt whatsoever here. This year is going to be fantastic with or without any YPF money.
Please DYOR. GLA
Yes of course the surety Bond is paid to the court if they want to appeal the courts decision against Argentina, though that large lodged amount of surety Bond money is essentially Burfords unless Argentina overturns the courts decision, and thats extremely unlikely to ever happen here, so Burford can then if it wants to sell off this year part or all of the settlement award with the surety Bond left as a somewhat hopefully large guarantee to any upfront payment from a 3rd party who buys any part of the settlement award from us, so that's what I mean by cashing in on this big case this year and not waiting years on the appeals process, the institutions that buy this settlement award will make good money ok, also Burford can quickly invest this upfront money into new litigation cases and bringing in far more money and profit than they would have done if they just held it all intact without selling it, Burford can make most of that early sold off award back by going down this route, remember it sold off that Argentine airlines case and dispute from $320 million dollars for a net of $ 94 million , and that money has worked incredibly hard and has by now paid many times that original amount, and yet the buyers of that award are still pushing ahead to claim the original $320 million dollars, they should get it ok, they just have to wait a bit longer, so that's the template that Burford uses in these types of situations, so we may expect this same proven route to a early profit from our Argentine case today.
It's only my thoughts on the subject , please DYOR, GLA
GLA
Pennylots Burford can certainly put the squeeze on Argentinean assets around the world ok, though I'm sure most people can understand that squeezing $16+ billion dollars of a settlement award from Argentina's assets is a very big ask from even burford, those massive assets are just not out there to squeeze, though I'm quite sure Burford can squeeze many hundreds of millions of dollars of Argentine assets from somewhere, and also get the big surety Bond money,
The best course of action for Burford to take would be to be thankful that they can get any surety Bond money and then respectfully negotiate a reasonable discounted settlement amount with Argentina's government , the government themselves see this to be $8.4 billion, and that for me seems fair and reasonable, be that instantly paid or rolled out over many years, I see no justifiable reason for Argentina not to just pay sovereign bonds, as all they have to worry about is servicing the yearly interest payments on those bonds, our money is very little compared to Argentina's national debts, Burford sells these bonds instantly and Burford and us are completely clear of this Argentine big case, the money is in the bank and no concerns around Argentina's economic woes ever again, how this actually plays out is anyone's guess here,
Though for Argentina isn't it better to have a 50% discounted adverse judgement against you on a $16 billion dollars award just paid , than having a that judgement just sit there unpaid and chased up on for numerous years causing all sorts of problems for the Argentine state. It's going to be a fantastic year for us and Burfords coffers here, probably the best ever.
Please DYOR, GLA
Here is the deal with the one monetary fund MrMarroc, America and the IMF will use its financial muscle and influence to make sure Argentina does not get sucked in to China 's financial clutches, as we've seen that happen before and all around the world and especially the nations that are in financial trouble, that was the purpose of Argentina's visit with Joe Biden just a few months ago, though that wasn't put out officially like that, trust me ,it was about that very thing,
So the IMF can relax a little more now and get that money out much quicker to Argentina now or very soon, yes the normal things will be said around new and better payment plans etc, but essentially not much has changed with Argentina's fortunes, it's on its back so as to speak, plus Argentina is working out a payment plan with Brazil around each other's commodities , and to avoid using their own dollar reserves, to essentially keep more dollars to pay Americans and others,
So Argentina should have more money quite soon to pay for its international borrowings payments and multiple types of bonds etc, now seeing they have more money now then they may or may not have more room to issue new sovereign bonds to pay for any legal liabilities / Burford and all the other court lead settlement awards against the Argentine state, if Argentina wishes to trade with America or any other country then it must respect other countries court systems and namely American courts , as America is it's biggest trading partner, and also America is helping Argentina to get its hands on this IMF money much quicker now,
So I see Argentina paying its surety Bond money very soon and Burford negotiating a reasonable settlement award with Argentine sovereign bonds being the financial vehicle here used, if it's paid over a long period, then Buford will sell most if not all of the award off to 3rd parties/ with very ready and waiting institutions to buy those sovereign bonds, and even as soon as this year.
GLA, please DYOR
Directly from Bloomberg.
The biden administration would support a speeding up of disbursements from Argentina's $44 billion dollar program with the international monetary fund if the nation's authorities can successfully negotiate a new schedule with the lender, according to US officials familiar with the matter.
The US would be supportive of frontloading the payments because it sees the need to prevent Argentina's economic crisis from getting worse, the officials said, asking not to be identified without permission to speak publicly.
So essentially I read this as the Biden administration wants to speed up the IMF to give Argentina it's money more quickly, and now does that mean Argentina will have more money to pay out to its country and on it's court liabilities or settlement awards, you would think that would be a logical conclusion to that news just a few minutes ago, and maybe could that be the reason the shares have risen a little higher in America ?? .
DYOR, GLA
Amica1 , you really need to get up to speed where Burford is right now, the backlog is all but practically gone, the pent up case's from the pandemic are expected to come through this year, as in the 33 case's that have and are coming up this year, my best guess is that this could easily achieve earnings of between $600 to even $900 million dollars, and believe me I wouldn't blink a eyelid if it came in at $900 million dollars ,and that's without any input from the YPF case at all. those pent up case's could easily add another one off $300 million dollars to this year's earnings, so to respectfully correct you, this could really fantastically fill up Burfords coffers this year, also and incredibly any selling off of any financial part of this big YPF case award could shoot those earnings to incredible highs here, if Argentina had to post a bond of say $600 million dollars, I don't know it's just a guess here, well it wouldn't surprise me if Burford quickly sold off say $300 million on the strength of any big surety bond by Argentina. So as Bigbaggerhungry says here be careful you don't miss the boat here ,
LOL.
Please DYOR GLA
Beech2. totally agree with you here, it's going to be one of the best years on record for Burfords shareholders and the share price, I'm convinced our earnings could get near $8 to $9 hundred million dollars , with the pent up cases coming through here, a £20 share price could easily be achieved here this year, this is one fantastic company to be invested in right now. I'm eagerly waiting on how much the big surety Bond will be, judge preska will surely have to align this bonds amount to the potential $16+ billion settlement amount, so I'm hoping it's in the hundreds of millions if not over $1 billion dollars, Argentina's government / YPF company have posted a surety amount of line of credit of $285 million for that big Maxus energy case, Guaranteeing its liability in that case, so I've no reason to think that they wouldn't put up another large amount of money with our nearing big surety bond, Argentina have recently raised $1.2 billion in the capital markets ,so maybe just maybe this money is in preparation of our large surety Bond amount. The reason I'm eagerly awaiting on this amount is because then Burford has a solid amount of money it practically knows it's getting in hard cash at some stage, and then i it can if it wants it can sell off parts of any award and knowing that this surety Bond is a guarantee to any potential institutions who advance Burford any upfront money from our settlement award. So it's going to be very interesting and exciting this year, can't wait.
DYOR, GLA
Lthamigo thanks for that, it's made me very nervous about purchasing with the 212 platform, it cost me a lot of money not to get all my shares in the one go, I trade on 3 platforms, though 212 looks cheap , though it's nearly impossible to work out how much they save you in trading fees, I suspect one day someone will tell us they are ripping us all off inside those share price spreads as that's how they make their money LOL.
GLA
TheTrosky I appreciate all your hard work in putting all that together for all us here or just me, though strangely you have not shown any links to back up what your saying here, if your that categorically certain to what your stating here then please supply all the appropriate percentage links and statements of shares needed for that to actually happen to the remaining shareholders, I suspect most don't actually exist, you came off the other day with you saying the HMRC allows a 90% write off of delisted company shares, and now your changing it to , that was all about a 90% granting to shareholders in healthy companies, " so which is it then" , it surely can't be both, or is that a porky pie here, you need to do your homework better because your post look so elegant professional and believable here, so you see I was paying attention , and if you had paid more attention to your own former post then you'll see your own statements don't actually match up to what you've previously written here.
I don't know for sure what will happen after delisting, though I bet it's not as bad a picture as the one your painting here, though that's ok, it might make people DTOR here for themselves and then make their own minds up for themselves, as all those ienergizer statements have said ,there are all types of risk before delisting and especially after delisting, they make it clear that nothing is guaranteed, though if that is completely or badly true in monetary terms then why did the company say the shareholders are better off in a delisted company, you could be right, this could be a bad deal after delisting, though my money after careful analysis and due diligence tells me that this could very well be a fantastic opportunity to multiply my money many times more, with my investment only tiny in comparison to my net worth, I'm serious when I say my 20000 shares could come back as a £100000 check from anil,, and if not I would reasonably expect around a £4000 dividend check per year, and if not then I'm stuck in a company with 20000 share that one day will need to be purchased by someone for many times more than what I've paid for them, I can afford to wait, I can afford to lose everything here, though that isn't a reasonable assumption to make here, as this whole sector is ready to grow exponentially here, so it's more likely than less likely that I will get a massive check for my shares one day. I'm confident ok, and believe me when I'm this confident I'm normally not to far away from my first thought and observation that this could easily come back as a £100000 check one day.
Though please please DYOR and never ever buy on anyone's recommendation here.
GLA
I don't know if any of these institutions holding these share will hold or sell here in the next few weeks, or have they already sold a certain percentage already, thus the 30p SP low, I'm not complaining as I picked plenty up at 34p on that day,though I was restricted to only 2000 shares by the 212 trading platform, they eventually changed it to only 10000 shares after me contacting them, but in the mean time I bought more on Degiro , I was furious as I had to pay more with the lost time, again I asked the 212 trading platform about only being able to buy 10000 shares, again they said I could buy another 10000 shares if I wanted, I couldn't understand or believe this was happening, that buying delay cost me dearly, still I managed to grab 20000 shares at a average of 40p , I had no idea that the 212 trading platform would have this restrictive buying roadblock in it, I suspect it was the share price collapse that may have caused this , it actually shocked me. and disappointed me. though I got a reasonable amount of these shares and I will consider getting more on any weakness here.
Even at this price does anyone think that Anil Aggarwal or anyone else will offer less than the current share price in any buyout , if they do it will be deemed corporate theft , just grab the dividend if it appears and be thankful we're getting a massive dividend in comparison to the very low share price.
Please DYOR, GLA
I will be absolutely delighted if I'm allowed to keep my shares in this company on a long term basis, and if not then I'm sure the exit strategy will be much more than the average 40p price I've paid per share overall, there could potentially be a huge increase in revenue and profits in the coming years, with artificial intelligence and very substantial B2B new contracts coming our way, we're seeing that right now with more to come in this massively growing B2B sector.
GLA, please DYOR.
Though over 15% of the shares still held by these institutions thus far, so if they continue to hold them they can block any possible forced low share price offer .
Gla
Hereshopin I checked that exact place on ienergizers site last week and it was 11% , and now yes it's 5.5% now, so it must have been them dumping into the market, they are slow at updating these things, now will they keep these shares or dump the rest in the coming weeks, ??? If they do well that would mean a return to lower levels, and if kept then they are taking there chance like the rest of us in a delisting.
GLA
Threeput AXA have very limited room to manoeuvre here regarding their 11% holding, a lot of share owning companies don't hold in unlisted companies and will have to sell into the market, though when you own a massive 11% holding then a quickly convened meetings need to take place to decide what to do about this situation, I imagine that they have decided to
just bear and grin from in this most difficult situation, a hope like myself that the dividend is paid out, for what I've paid its not a sacrifice in any real way. I genuinely feel sorry for any small investors paying top dollar for these shares and only to see them crash like this, I'm confident that a Phoenix will arise from these ashes sooner rather than later, so stay put I say, though don't make any decisions on My say so here,
GLA
TheTrotsky let's look at it like this, if and when Anil Aggarwal takes ienergizer private do you think he will offer AXA £5 for their shares and offer me £1 , ? very very unlikely ,though not impossible, Anil our CEO in theory could mess everyone around for years and pay no dividends at all to AXA or us or even himself, ? !!! Again very unlikely , though not impossible,
It's a case of making any decision on holding these shares after delisting and just using a reasonable assumption to the risk involved here, and with the available protection afforded by our biggest shareholder AXA, they are our biggest protection available here, by virtue of taking anil himself to court in the uk or otherwise , and if should be fail to live up to his public statement around getting a better deal for this companies shareholders, yes he could just be talking about his own selfish interest here, though he's no Donald Trump , so maybe just maybe he has some reasonable plan to substantially enhance share holders financial interest here, why else have we not heard a massive outcry from AXA around the destruction of their massive shareholding here, they must know something will transpire after delisting, and if not maybe they have just accepted that they will get a big dividend twice a year, that would suit me fine here, and as I said sooner or later this company will get taken over by a massively valuable company and probably from America or even India itself, there's plenty of multi billionaires in india that can afford this company.
I accepted your assertion that the inland revenue will accept a reduction of up to 90% of someone's share value in a tax submission, though I would suggest that this is mainly because there actually was a 90% crash in a company's share value, because most delisted companies have failed in some way, and causing that 90% crash in value, though this is definitely not the case with Ienergizer, in fact it's the exact opposite here, this company is thriving and going places, hopefully to a new USA listing .
You say Anil could sell to 3rd parties and then still force this through at a price that suits Anil Aggarwal, well no he can't , because he still can't break AXA,s 11% holding here, why do you think AXA have held that 11% holding here, to protect themselves from this exact outcome. So Anil surely knows that and he will offer AXA and most likely us a better way out to fulfil what Anil says about getting better value from a delisted company, there's no guarantees here, just some share percentage protections, and that's enough for me to sleep easily, so if AXA don't sell at the right price ,then its stalemate here with Anil, I also can't see anil stall everything by offering small shareholders a pittance for there shares, and even if he does ,sure I only paid a pittance for my shares anyway. So as you can see I've removed most if not all of your arguments here TheTrotsky . GLA
I'm not worried about AXA and them getting their money back, because you can be sure they are not worried about my shareholding at all here, only their own, so on that principle I hold and go forward here, though I do want them to fight for all their own legal rights, and in doing so they will ensure that legal right to smaller investors here, ienergizer can simply not just buy out AXA,s shares without offering everyone the same deal in some form or another, through technically they probably can offer a top price for AXA,s shares, as I've said before Anil Aggarwal surely wants to go out on a high with his integrity fully intact here and pay everyone a fair and reasonable price for their shares. Failing that then he must have bigger more exciting plans for this company, and that might even mean a USA listing or even share swap and then made a part of another massive USA listed company, remember that many other big USA companies may not even have seriously considered or offered any offer or any talks or money whatsoever to him as he owned over 82% of ienergizer, so it could be millions $$$ wasted in banking advisors fees on their part. Anil Aggarawal will also know that one of the biggest thing's that holds any company share price back is a massive controlling stake by its CEO, or to that effect anyone, because then there's little or no bid premium in any share price, why bother if it's main shareholder won't create proper liquidity in its shares and not allowing most institutional investors a half decent percentage of the shares, AXA was lucky to accumulate its large holding here, I say that with tongue in cheek because of this share crash and situation. I'm confident they and also us newbies here will come out good in the end here, I'm actually not nervous even in the slightest about holding these share after delisting, though if you need the money and can't risk potentially waiting a year or two then simply sell up and be assured you know what's happening to your money and investment.
All this is only food for thought and not any kind of recommendation to buy or sell here.
GLA
TheTrotsky I can't believe you said that with a straight face LOL , that Anil aggarwal can offer the blocking minority shareholders here 90% less than the shares are actually worth, I'm not even going to asked you to back that up with any online evidence, because it's actually ridiculous to even put that out here, if you had said maybe 25% less I might have understood the cut throat logic of that business decision, also remember Anil Aggarwal picked up a massive special strange dividend the other year, so he should have the money somewhere to buy the remaining shares out if he wanted,
As I said in most jurisdictions you need 90% or more of the shares to force a complete all share buyout.of a company, Anil Aggarwal can't achieve that virtue of AXA,s 11% holding, I do not know if that is the case in india, maybe someone can enlighten me here ,
If Anil Aggarwal short changes AXA here after it stated that ienergizers shareholders are best served by going private then he must then demonstrate that statement and commitment in monetary terms, and if he fails I think he could have a legal battle with AXA on his hands, I don't believe it will come to that, I do think this man Anil Aggarwal is protecting his baby that he's created and nurtured for over 22 years, he knows it's worth a awful lot more money than what the venture capitalists are offering right now, plus he can probably see that what ienergizer is offering to businesses right now is one of the biggest growing services industries around, call centres and B2B help ,and with artificial intelligence changing the whole landscape in B2B companies, with the financial savings for businesses and Ienergizer here, the extra profits with all those savings could be enormous, also ienergizer many companies would be at the forefront of this massive change over, so really ienergizers profits could easily soar during this critical period, so do I want to be out of this company during this exponential increasing new type of work load, absolutely not, I'll be more than happy to just let the massive dividend compound year after year without any reasonable buyout of my shares,
As far as owning these shares in a ISA I would have thought that they might just also delist inside a ISA , though I don't know for sure here, or simply sell in the isa and rebuy outside a isa and then simply hold for the long term as I'm doing.
Anil Aggarawal is incredibly rich and a astute business man of over 22 years here, so you think he wants to go out with a truly appalling reputation that he swindled AXA and private investors out of their true share money, Sir Philip Green tried that stunt, and look where it got him, a extremely badly damaged worldwide reputation, so I'm sitting pretty with only 20.000 shares here at a average price of 40p, so the downside should be very limited if anything went wrong here, if dividends continue then surely 2 years gets my money back again.
AXA, their 11% is stated on the Ienergizer internet site, they seem to be the only other big shareholder here,
Ienergizer themselves have stated that they are setting up a company matched bargain basis/ sell and buy facilitiy for 12 months and this will be reviewed after 12 months,
Ienergizer have indicated that this may or not continue after 12 months, yes this could very well be to scare small investors into accepting a matched bargain price offered here. Though if the remaining shareholders sit tight including AXA then they can't force the remaining shareholders to sell up at a unreasonable share price, though it may not be ienergizers wish to take everyone out on the cheap remember they publicly stated that the shareholders would be essentially better served share price wise if the company delisted , I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt here, though only because they can't force a unacceptable share price offer at the remaining shareholders.
It's in ienegizers best interest to get small investors to sell out here on the AIM or matched bargain basis facility, because that means they or their financial backers can buy all these free floating shares up , and when ienergizer eventually sells the whole of last of company out to venture capitalists , then the rewards could/ should be substantially higher than anything they pay us in any match bargain basis, also remember if they don't sell off anything soon then the only way they can take out another dividend is to pay everyone the same amount of dividends possibly 20+ pence a share ,
I haven't a clue what the share price will do here at any time before delisting, though it may be a reasonable assumption to think that a sizable proportion of small investors will sell out to take their profits or sadly use up their tax loss for next year, so the share may possibly go down somewhat at delisting, though I genuinely don't know for sure ,because nobody knows that. Also there could be a last minute attempt by venture capitalists to come up with a last minute offer ,though as they've already played there hand out here, then that would be much less likely though not impossible.
If you own a valuable asset, sooner or later that very valuable asset will be under real pressure to reflect its true monetary worth in some shape or form, be that cash ,dividends or even shares in another company , I'm sitting really tight for this to happen in one way or another.
Please please DYOR before making any decisions here.
GLA