Member Info for Gtx1

Yes pennylots it would be seen as a Argentine national humiliation to put all those YPF shares up as security to avoid risky embargoes.

I don't believe this old outgoing Argentine administration would be making big decisive decisions around judge Preska's pledge for Argentine assets on our case to the tune of numerous Argentine $$$$ billions right now.

The old outgoing administration would have spectacularly kicked the ball down the road and pleaded national poverty as a sovereign led excuse to pay nothing.

Though Burfords Luck was really and truly in here when Javier Milei hit the jackpot with his pledge to dollarise Argentina,

Javier milei's administration along with the outgoing administration will probably ask for a meeting with Burford to ask judge Preska for a extension to her offer of a stay on any embargoes of the $16 billion settlement award, and citing the need for some space for the new administration to negotiate with Burford a way forward to accommodate both parties respective financial positions, Preska will definitely understand and accommodate such a request as long as Burford sanctions and is happy with a reasonable extension ,

Argentina needs the dollars ok, burford can lock the sale of the YPF shares up in our court appeal, so it's in both parties interest to free these assets up for selling, as I've stated before the Argentine congress will more likely vote the sale of these YPF assets through if they themselves get to keep the lion's share of this money, with Burford slicing off say around $1 billion to $1.5 billion, that seems fair enough to me at this stage. Also during this process Argentina will or should negotiate with Burford a longer term payments plan for the rest of our expected court appeal win later next year. By the time this all this plays out in court late next year, the YPF shares will be sold off courtesy of Burfords taking them out of our court case and also the timing of the end of our court case ending , with Burford on a pledge or promise of a substantial share of the YPF assets late next year, now if that gets negotiated inside the next few months with a court led extension then our shares will get marked up substantially in the next few months, because Argentina have been dragged to the negotiating table by J. preska's stay of embargoes ruling and Javier Milei's need to carry out his pledges to the Argentine congress and people , resulting in a compromise with burford already having negotiated on the outcome of the Argentine appeal with a" already" and waiting lump sum of around $1 billion dollars and a possible full settlement plan already agreed on before the end of next year. All That is what I believe might happen ,so we haven't to long to wait to see if I'm anywhere near right here, if the court led extension comes shortly then everything I've stated here might just realistically follow. the 5th of December , that's not to long to

I see this as "everything " that Javier Milei wants is fundamentally tied up in his desire to be aligned with the American financial and commercial free markets, so really the only way he can achieve this outcome is to fully respect the American court's judgements , and pay Burford in full after negotiations are concluded/ lump sum and a longer-term settlement plan.

I cannot see how Argentina can get out of this financial conundrum , they themselves urgently will need to take this risk in conjunction with Burford , I believe Burford might relieve Argentina of the obligation to surrender the full amount of Argentina's 51% holding in the YPF shares, and settle for say around $1.4 billion with the remainder helping milei / Argentina get it's dollarisation programme started, I believe they need somewhere around two thirds of the Argentine congress to make this happen, I could see this going through like this as there's still plenty in it for the Argentine state, I cannot see them voting through and accepting and loosing the full 51% of the YPF company , it's laughable really , they effectively steal our YPF shares and we can't effectively get it straight back in our award , that's life I guess, compromise compromise compromise and everyone should benefit in the long run. So I'm expecting a round at least a $billion dollar Lump sum some time next year, that will do wonders for Burford and it's shareholders.

Exciting times ahead here, roll on this December and then 2024. this will be a fantastic Xmas present for all Burfords shareholders. GLA

Some investors might just want to see Argentina's response to preskas's announcement late last night, right now is yet another fantastic opportunity to get into Burfords shares before they at least double in price, remember any negotiated settlement deal can be sold off by Burford very quickly to then that money be ploughed back into litigation funding, that's what I think is very possible, and for Burford to be completely finished with this entire court case.

HOW

Preska has given Argentina a way out here and cleverly presented to them their options , while knowing they really don't have a option other than to negotiate with Burford a upfront slice of the YPF assets and a settlement plan on the final settlement award amount. when Burford gets into negotiations with Argentina there can be only one outcome, a large lump sum and a long drawn out settlement plan that will most likely get sold off by Burford, that could happen before Xmas or more likely inside a 3 month period. Yes that quickly. I'm again astounded that Burfords shares are not already sitting at around £16 right now. 2.30 pm might change our share price to reflect all these variables.

GLA

Thanks for that Bluewiley.

Surly today's going to see a share price recognition of preska's very clever announcement, she's giving milei his first headache of his presidency LOL, milei needs that YPF money ok, and we want partially compensated for our award settlement, so preska has cleverly brought Argentina to the negotiating table and gave Burford a early Xmas present, LOL

It's just brilliant news for Burfords shareholders.

This is now the big test for milei , if you want to align Argentina to the American system then it's negotiating time with Burfords lawyers and the American court system, as Burford has stated , we want to be part of the solution to settle our large court award with Argentina not a obstacle to derail Argentina's recovery plan, I believe Burford will play fair here if Argentina reciprocates the same fairness in any negotiations.

Also if I were milei I would cancel my foreign travel plans in multiple cities and countries and roll up my sleeves right now and get to work to sort out his dollarisation plans, with Burford being one of his top priorities, he needs to move quickly even though he's not officially in power until the 10th of December.

It's going to be a brilliant Xmas, get in here and stay in here I say. GLA

There was nearly always going to be a resistance or kickback from certain commercial parties regarding litigation funders ,

any excuse to stop a big funder backing a financially strained litigator in pursuit of what they believed to be a valid case, I've always thought why not just allow a judge to completely and totally privately examine the validity of any funders credentials IE financial and country of origin , and then leave it at that, anything thing else is just a injustice to the whole legal system of compensation to a injured party,

I'm so delighted with how things are going right now with our Argentine case and settlement potential, I agree that Burfords fortunes regarding the full pay out of around $8.4 billion will be partially tied to the fortunes of Argentina itself ,I'm expecting a initial lump sum, and probably from the YPF assets, milei certainly has his work cut out for himself,

I genuinely believe that he must aim everything at dollarising Argentina's economy and getting every single dollar out of his nation's hidden private hiding places, there is hundreds of billions hidden in that country and probably even more hidden abroad, I say get a temporary general amnesty going for every dollar hidden and get it out into Argentine banks , that will massively stimulate the whole economy and allow those dollar's to freely stimulate the whole commercial side of Argentine life, it would do wonders for that country, companies would borrow and create more jobs bringing in billions of extra earnings and taxes, if milei really wants to get things moving quickly then he simply must literally beg joe biden to help him carry out this exercise much quicker than a normal dollarisation programme. his country's fortunes are dependent on this happening quickly, the poorest need this to happen ASP, 40% poor in the country is a lot of anger voters to keep quiet, 2024 there needs to be a really massive push by milei to get this dollarisation started, a lot of the dollars are already there being used by a lot of the country anyway, so surely milei just needs to slowly allow those dollar's to legally circulate and also get enough dollars into the banking system for.people to exchange their depreciating peso ASP,

I'm actually astonished that our share price is not much higher considering its most likely Burford will get a lump some of some description next year, if milie wants the YPF assets out of our court case to sell, then he needs to pay for that privilege, milie gets his dollarisation money and Burford gets it's fair slice of those assets , and should Burford get $1.4 billion of that money, sure Burford could argue that's just the lost interest on next years $16 billion settlement award , and then Burford could still ask for that payments plan on the negotiated full $8.4 billion settlement amount, it's going to be a very interesting 2024 , incredible potential here in burford. GLA

The YPF company valuation went from around $5.9 billion dollars today to $10.74 billion dollars , now if that's sold it should fetch much more than that amount, Burford has that asset legally trapped on appeal , so it shouldn't be to long before Argentina knocks on Burford door to free the YPF asset to sell , and surely Burford can get a down payment on our settlement award from that money , and even in the form of a court surety bond pledge from Argentina, so Argentina's appeal on the $16 billion court judgement can end and tie in nicely to the potential timing of the sale of the YPF company, we get the surety Bond money upfront or even a slice of the YPF sale money , whichever occurs, and then a negotiated longer term payments plan for the rest of our settlement award, preska should be aware of the current rising value of the YPF assets and should accordingly consider it in her surety Bond determination announcement.

The Argentine stock market is soaring, the initial reaction to Milei's 12% clear majority win is being very well received and with a credible amount of financial confidence going to the Argentine economy and financial instruments IE sovereign bonds etc. It's all looking brilliant for Burford here, let's hope investors see what I clearly see, and that's a surety of a really big payday.

GLA

Https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/argentina-oil-driller-ypf-surges-as-victorious-javier-milei-touts-privatisation.phtml#:~:text=Argentina%E2%80%99s%20YPF%20SA%20surged%20the%20most%20on%20record,gas%20producer%20and%20remove%20controls%20stymieing%20the%20sector.

Looking good .

GLA

Argentina / Javier milei needs space and time to dollarise the country , he especially needs his own dollars , the YPF asset could make a great start to accumulating enough dollars to get that process going, though right now or very soon be would be strongly advised to quickly negotiate the removal of Burfords appeal claim on those YPF assets, to clear the way for any potential sale, preska wouldn't allow those YPF assets to go up for sale with our current claim on those assets, thus the urgency for Argentina/ Javier milei to negotiate with burford to remove its YPF claim, hence my belief that a slice of these ypf assets Should go to burford as a good will gesture in part settlement of our final settlement award and the freeing up of those got a assets, I suggest anything between $1 and $1.4 billion would do the job, and strangely enough that's around what I would have liked preska's court Bond to come back as, if preska asked for a bond to be posted now , then milei needs to get moving in selling all the YPF assets off and including the oil rich shale oil and gas land. he could kill two birds with the one stone here, freeing those assets , getting billions for dollarisation , respecting American and worldwide court awards, and bringing commercial confidence to anyone who wishes to invest in Argentina.

The quicker milei gets help to dollarise Argentina then the quicker he turns that countries fortunes around, I firmly believe America will help him here , though with one eye on China + Russia and the other eye on Argentina's lithium and natural oil and gas reserves, all this leaves me 100% confident in the starting of early negotiations with Argentina around and a settlement that accommodates both sides respective needs and problems, as J. Molot stated recently Burford can be a part of the solution of this settlement award and not the problem. It's not will Burford be paid , its just when will Burford be paid.

and that's music to my ears this coming Xmas.

Ps, a really big thank you to Sebastian maril for all his fantastic work , very very much appreciated be me and I'm sure everyone here.

GLA.

If ever there was a time to buy and hold for medium to longer term is " right now", Burfords settlement money will definitely get paid , WHY ?, because in order for Javier milei's to dollarise Argentina he must adhere to the American system, and especially adhere to every American court judgement after fully utilising the American courts appeal processes.

This is the safest time to buy into Burfords shares to collect on this settlement award, Argentina will get out of its financial woes right now and thrive in a dollar lead economy, I can see it changing beyond belief to its todays financial nightmare,

America will probably help Argentina to dollarise much quicker to keep more of the tentacles of China's influences out of Argentina, that's in America's best interests, I even suspect America might even lend Argentina money or guarantee money lent to Argentina to dollarise it's economy, the YPF asset is part of Javier milei's ambitious plan to rid the Argentine state of

state bureaucracy in commercial activities and leave it to the open markets , that means tens of billions to pay Burford a down payment on our settlement award,

Yes now is the perfect time to buy and hold the bulk of anyone's purchases these shares, because the American system has to be adhered to by Argentina and that's Burfords financial guarantee to get paid.

GLA

Yes there will have to be agreement on a way forward by the ruling party's in Argentina , though the people have clearly spoken and they want to dollarise the Argentine state , to deny their wishes would create massive unrest and potentially serious street riots in Argentina, with the resisting political parties getting attacked , Javier milei is a rare one ok though he must be given a chance to carry out his election pledges and hopefully mature into a better balanced political ruler, I feel political responsibility may make him into a much better all round person. It will be a long road though Burfords settlement money will be paid if ok if Argentina wants to achieve all its aims for it's own country and people. I honestly don't think investors fully understand that Burford will fully get it's negotiated settlement money after milei's election win/ our share price does not reflect the strength of this certainty, only because they don't understand that it has to be fully paid up to fulfil Argentina's full potential and Destiny.

GLA

I absolutely agree with those sentiments and words of MrMarroc and also with TWT .

Getting rid of the peso should be instrumental in achieving commercial confidence and creating real stability for businesses and the general public alike, all currencies have no intrinsic value at all, they are only worth what people will pay for them, so dollarising Argentina's economy should bring that comprehensive intrinsic American greenback confidence to doing business in Argentina , with the new president elect Javier milei wishing to align the Argentine state and fortunes to the American state and fortunes ,that must also encompass the American courts judgements and legal determinations, that means Burford should definitely and one way or another get fully paid up for its court wins and settlement amounts/ $8.4 billion. That money will definitely be negotiated and paid from Burfords $16+ billion American court judgement. We win, Argentina wins by respecting commercial courts judgements which in itself will pull in billions of dollars of extra investments into the Argentine economy, creating confidence for big multinational companies to trade and pay taxes in Argentina, there's no need to take money out of Argentine banks and country if it's in dollar's, that will bring more tax to the Argentine state , also if the Argentine state offers a temporary general amnesty for hidden money kept abroad and tucked away at home , that will bring back hundreds of billions of dollars into Argentina banks to dolllarise Argentina, it will definitely work wonders for Argentina and it's long suffering people, we win they win everyone wins , just brilliant news , investors in Burford may not fully know the ramifications for Javier Mike's election win here, but I'm stating its brought Burford much closer to fully collecting its $8.4 billion payday. in fact for me it's practically a payday guarantee now.

GLA

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-17/presidential-front-runner-would-unshackle-argentine-farming-oil?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Ps that link works, it just works on and off depending on the amount of people using it.

Https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/argentina-presidential-election-results-milei-versus-massa-in-run-off.phtml

This should change everything , milei needs billions of dollars to dollarise Argentina and the YPF asset has been ear marked to be sold by milei to achieve this aim, Burford has this asset locked into our court dispute with Argentina , so Argentina or milei may need to negotiate to free the ypf asset by offering Burford a upfront slice of the YPF assets sale money, for me this could be a a massive game changer for burford , possibly $1.5 billion down payment and then a longer term payments plan for Burfords coffers, absolutely brilliant news , to eventually dollarise Argentina's economy should change everything for that country, just fantastic news here.

GLA

Sorry , Yes 2nd quarter, I was wrong there syoun11. and thank you .

GLA

"From simply wall street. "

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%

The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated.

2023 EPS estimate increased from US$1.70 to US$1.93.

Revenue forecast steady at US$795.3m.

Net income forecast to grow 100% next year vs 31% growth forecast for Diversified Financial industry in the United Kingdom.

Consensus price target up from UK£15.60 to UK£16.43.

Share price rose 21% to UK£13.16 over the past week.

And all this before we even factor in anything from our YPF win. In my personal opinion even this estimate is on the low side, though factor in a possible expected soft recession in America and the uk, thank goodness we have a recessionary proof share and great company here in Burford capital .

Roll on tomorrow to see how this is all going to play out with our 3rd quarter results.

Burford surely has to be one of the best shares to own right now. Just a Brilliant company.

GLA.

I was just watching that when you posted BBH, LOL

Interesting when molot said that Burford could be part of the solution, and probably to sorting the settlement award out, I took it as he was indicating that Buford maybe looking at offering some kind of long term payments programme, and one that Burford could even then sell on at a discount to one of its often used banking partners. Burford will pull something more out of the bag to conclude this whole Argentine storyline.

GLA

In order for Burford to safely get it's full negotiated settlement award then we need Argentina to financially get on its feet , that's why it maybe be so important to carefully follow this next Argentine election, and especially around any dollarization programme. Even if Argentina decides to default on its international debt payments it still owes burford $16B until it officially negotiates it away, and it doesn't matter how long that takes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/argentina-shows-the-limits-of-brics-de-dollarization-dreams/ar-AA1gy5w4

GLA

I lost this part from last post,

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/argentina-dollarization-viable-and-urgent

Another big Thank you to Sebastian Marils twitter post. and also in keeping with my own exact thoughts , the quicker Argentina dollarises the country the quicker it will get out of its continuous horrific hyper inflation problems , and then attain the required confidence and credentials to pull in investors and investment money into it's financial systems and commercial companies, by essentially adopting the American commercial ethos and of course the dollar then the much needed overall confidence in the Argentine state will be established , Argentina could be one of the best countries in the world to trade in if they respect international law and pay their lost lawsuits, namely "Buford" , a dollarization programme will or should achieve this outcome better and much quicker than any other riskier venture. I'm no economist and even I can see the merits of going down this route, they should give Javier milei a fair chance even if he does look like Jack Nicholson in the shinning and coming at you with a big knife or sword. Argentina really needs to move as fast as it can to dollarise as that country is financially skating on thin ice, and simply because the world has no confidence in the peso, and exasperated with the stealing of the YPF company from its shareholders by the Argentine state, that event truly shocked the world's commercial industries into avoiding any meaningful investments in Argentina, it made the country look like a banana republic with crazy leaders, or should I say leader , and namely Christina Fernandez and her chosen cohorts. So really does Javier milei look any more crazier than Fernandez and her lot ? I think not, in fact he is sticking his neck out like no other politician here, and to try something that should actually work. And it's already been proven to work in other countries, this really could transform Argentina and also give it a fantastic financial strength to pay all its debts down and especially pay off Burfords settlement award, it's financial confidence the country really and truly needs to trade better ,

and the dollar will give it that helping hand very quickly indeed. Argentina actually has much lower debts per capita than the UK or america and by a very large amount , it just has a currency that very few people want because of its obvious loss making peso , with hyper inflation damage, and also disrespect for commercial laws in Argentina. that can completely change with Argentina going back to its hay day and using all its natural resources / being a massive food producer, oil , gas, tourism etc, this country will truly flourish with the dollars easily tradable help.

Another thing , those unusual big buys that we seen 4x50000 that came up last week, and days before preskas $16B announcement , money talks ok, follow the money trail and you'll find out who knew what and when. it's good to have friends in new york and london, nudge nudge wink