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"From simply wall street. "
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%
The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated.
2023 EPS estimate increased from US$1.70 to US$1.93.
Revenue forecast steady at US$795.3m.
Net income forecast to grow 100% next year vs 31% growth forecast for Diversified Financial industry in the United Kingdom.
Consensus price target up from UK£15.60 to UK£16.43.
Share price rose 21% to UK£13.16 over the past week.
And all this before we even factor in anything from our YPF win. In my personal opinion even this estimate is on the low side, though factor in a possible expected soft recession in America and the uk, thank goodness we have a recessionary proof share and great company here in Burford capital .
Roll on tomorrow to see how this is all going to play out with our 3rd quarter results.
Burford surely has to be one of the best shares to own right now. Just a Brilliant company.
GLA.
I was just watching that when you posted BBH, LOL
Interesting when molot said that Burford could be part of the solution, and probably to sorting the settlement award out, I took it as he was indicating that Buford maybe looking at offering some kind of long term payments programme, and one that Burford could even then sell on at a discount to one of its often used banking partners. Burford will pull something more out of the bag to conclude this whole Argentine storyline.
GLA
In order for Burford to safely get it's full negotiated settlement award then we need Argentina to financially get on its feet , that's why it maybe be so important to carefully follow this next Argentine election, and especially around any dollarization programme. Even if Argentina decides to default on its international debt payments it still owes burford $16B until it officially negotiates it away, and it doesn't matter how long that takes.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/argentina-shows-the-limits-of-brics-de-dollarization-dreams/ar-AA1gy5w4
GLA
I lost this part from last post,
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/argentina-dollarization-viable-and-urgent
Another big Thank you to Sebastian Marils twitter post. and also in keeping with my own exact thoughts , the quicker Argentina dollarises the country the quicker it will get out of its continuous horrific hyper inflation problems , and then attain the required confidence and credentials to pull in investors and investment money into it's financial systems and commercial companies, by essentially adopting the American commercial ethos and of course the dollar then the much needed overall confidence in the Argentine state will be established , Argentina could be one of the best countries in the world to trade in if they respect international law and pay their lost lawsuits, namely "Buford" , a dollarization programme will or should achieve this outcome better and much quicker than any other riskier venture. I'm no economist and even I can see the merits of going down this route, they should give Javier milei a fair chance even if he does look like Jack Nicholson in the shinning and coming at you with a big knife or sword. Argentina really needs to move as fast as it can to dollarise as that country is financially skating on thin ice, and simply because the world has no confidence in the peso, and exasperated with the stealing of the YPF company from its shareholders by the Argentine state, that event truly shocked the world's commercial industries into avoiding any meaningful investments in Argentina, it made the country look like a banana republic with crazy leaders, or should I say leader , and namely Christina Fernandez and her chosen cohorts. So really does Javier milei look any more crazier than Fernandez and her lot ? I think not, in fact he is sticking his neck out like no other politician here, and to try something that should actually work. And it's already been proven to work in other countries, this really could transform Argentina and also give it a fantastic financial strength to pay all its debts down and especially pay off Burfords settlement award, it's financial confidence the country really and truly needs to trade better ,
and the dollar will give it that helping hand very quickly indeed. Argentina actually has much lower debts per capita than the UK or america and by a very large amount , it just has a currency that very few people want because of its obvious loss making peso , with hyper inflation damage, and also disrespect for commercial laws in Argentina. that can completely change with Argentina going back to its hay day and using all its natural resources / being a massive food producer, oil , gas, tourism etc, this country will truly flourish with the dollars easily tradable help.
Another thing , those unusual big buys that we seen 4x50000 that came up last week, and days before preskas $16B announcement , money talks ok, follow the money trail and you'll find out who knew what and when. it's good to have friends in new york and london, nudge nudge wink
Stocksaint any Argentine politician or political party that can deliver Argentina out of its long destructive hyper inflation would be good for Burford, in as much that it will help and allow Argentina to pay it's international and domestic financial obligations,/ Burfords settlement awards, I personally would prefer sergio massa if he pursues a dollarization programme, though some if not all credit must be shown to Javier milei for initiating a dollarization agenda, would a properly established dollarization programme work, I'm confident by the way it works in other countries that it would be a popular and financial success in Argentina, in doing that Argentina could be a powerhouse of new investments with its fantastic national resources, Argentina needs more than anything else to create confidence in it's standing in the world regarding trading in Argentina, legally and commercially, so whoever takes power that will be of should be their primary objective, the only thing that would make a dramatic change to trying to achieve this aim would be to create confidence by adopting the American dollar as it's national currency, there might be other posibities to achieve the same outcome though they will not achieve the same security of using the dollar to trade themselves out of financial trouble and hyper inflation,
So what I'm saying is that it's probably in Burfords own interest to see a dollarization programme established to bring confidence to Argentina, so they can easily borrow to pay interest on sovereign bonds and all their national debts , that should make paying Burford it's settlement award much more easier . Confidence in Argentina should make the possibility of the selling of our award much more easier for burford. That's extremely important.
There's no guarantees with anything I've stated here, just a better probability of the outcome I've stated.
PDYOR. GLA.
It maybe worth following and watching this coming interview with javier milei, should the question of our very possible $16 billion dollar judgement against Argentina come up ? then the answer to that question could be instrumental in the immediate fortunes of Burfords valuation and share price.
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/expect-controversy-tucker-carlson-in-argentina-to-interview-javier-milei.phtml
https://tuckercarlson.com/video/
GLA
Thanks for all that information below posters, EXCELLENT.
I'm just talking off the top of my head next, I'm actually wondering if Argentina's current currency problems have been made much worse by most of its people squirriling away some dollars because of the country's own long term inflationary pressure problems, there must be a absolute massive black market all over Argentina's provenances to buy dollars , if I were living there I would be buying dollars with my weekly/ monthly wages, it's absolutely madness to hold the peso when it guarantees you will loose a high percentage of your yearly earnings or wages, so in saying that the people of Argentina must be begging to get the dollarization programme underway, so they themselves can put their own hidden dollar's into the Argentine banks to earn some interest on their own personal money/ dollars, that really would pump billions of dollars into the Argentine banks or system to then bring back very large amounts of tax for Argentina itself, and speed up dollarization, so this occurrence and domino effect could have a dramatic and quick infusion of billions of dollars into the banking system to help the Argentine state get itself out of financial trouble, then you have the hundreds of billions of Argentine money coming back from outside of the country and into the Argentine banks, maybe some kind of financial amnesty could be offered here if needed, this dollaization programme could really kick off the Argentine state with the knock on effect that Argentina can then easily pay it's foreign interest debt payments and of course any lost legal cases settlement awards / "burford," Burford has won this massive YPF case and should get every negotiated dollar that's coming to us now, and the thing that can really help deliver our settlement money is that dollarization programme , so if Argentina assures Burford that they will pay up ok when they deliver the dollarization programme then Burford can easily sell off some if not all of this coming settlement award to 3rd parties and very quickly , or simply wait and collect the lot from Argentina itself , one way or another Burford will be paid ok. and I genuinely think Argentina will absolutely thrive using the dollar as it's national currency.
PDYOR, GLA
So if milei wants to privatise " YPF once again !! " He will at some stage have to negotiate with burford around the YPF settlement award, if not ! wouldn't you think that Burford would perfectly legally try to stop any new YPF nationalization to raise money for milei's dollarization programme, Burford could easily throw a spanner into the works of milei's dollar raising plans, and that to me could be Argentina's Achilles heel in bringing Argentina to the negotiating table a lot sooner than they otherwise would have planned, that could be the real leverage Burford needs to put massive pressure on Argentina in this whole legal chess game . Just like I mentioned about that Russian billionaire case, his Achilles heel was to put massive pressure on his son who lives in the UK , and Burford knew his son could go to jail because of his son helping the billionaire get his assets out of the uk, so they aimed at holding his son to account for breaking the law in the UK , with the son his wife and the billionairs grand child left to hold the baby so as to speak, burford got all their money in that case $165 million ? and they will get most if not all the money in this YPF case.I
I say give Javier milei a chance , though if the other Argentine political parties really want to win then maybe they themselves should consider a dollarization programme. the current politicians in power right now / Sergio Massa , he has real credibility in Washington's political halls of power, so a dollarization programme could happen much quicker and without the potential risk of a trump loving Javier milei's mouth going off like a loose cann on the world's stage,
It's looking good here, that as Burford needs leverage to collect our award, and at the same time Argentina needs the American government and its legal systems to deliver a dollarization programme , then the timing couldn't have been better for Burford. I believe Javier milei when he says there is hundreds of billions ££$€£ of Argentine money out there just waiting to come back into his country again , then that money could really kick off his country's financial markets and businesses in a big way , bringing in far more tax receipts and revenues, bolstering the whole dollarization programme,
if Javier milei helps burford get it's money in any way possible , then the rest should all fall into place. Though they both need to happen for the best outcome. Burford will collect here, I'm sure of this now more than ever.
PDYOR, GLA.
There's some very interesting interest from America in the fortunes of Argentina right now , mostly to keep China Russia and other's at bay also and probably most importantly for America to get it's hands on Argentina's natural resources of oil, gas , and battery minerals / lithium etc.
Also if Argentina wants to adhere to the normally trusted commercial terms for companies to.operate in Argentina then complete respect for international law must apply there, then they simply cannot avoid paying our settlement award, or epossibly America itself can help them out here with a very timely cheap credit line to pay our American legal demand of our settlement award, or even a guarantee from America and put too any commercial request for Argentina might get a much cheaper loan for Argentina from American banks. America wants Argentina onside here, so surly it needs to play it's part in helping Argentina out wherever it can and essential or accidentally help Burford get it's settlement award.
Just some stand out parts I thought worth pasting up.
the victorious figure of Milei and his dollarisation plan, has forced the United States to keep a close eye on the local ups and downs. "Campaigning is one thing, governing is quite another," they repeat in diplomatic circles.
There are many companies that have invested in energy and mining and others that want to be there. We are very interested," admits one US official. At a time of rising demand in these sectors, the core nations are hoping for a stable business environment. To this end, US companies are calling for "clear rules" and "predictability" for investment in Argentina. Biden's government repeats the same axiom. And, despite the uncertainty generated by the three-thirds outcome.
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/three-thirds-and-no-plan-us-concerns-about-argentinas-future.phtml
GLA
Many countries have adopted the dollar without to many problems, and are mostly doing well, Argentina should give it a go and if it doesn't work out then go back to the peso and probably hyper inflation or not, Argentina's inflation has dragged on for to many years for the country not to try something more drastic or radical, desperate people must try desperate things to get out of the continuing financial mess it's in, dollarization just might work for Argentina, though the loss of fiscal independent monetary controls would be politically painful and I guess sad for the nation as a whole, follow other countries that have sent down that route and been successful, as below.
BRIGRA poster your absolutely correct there, excellent spotting , my apologies to all here, thank goodness someone is monitoring my post, thank you.
https://www.newsweek.com/countries-accept-us-dollars-currency-1169302
GLA.
https://www.newsweek.com/countries-accept-us-dollars-currency-1169302
I don't know what Javier milei will say about our nearing settlement amount , though I'm sure he will possibly want to distance himself from paying any award amount by again stating Argentina will appeal the entire ruling, though as I've stated before a very large surety court Bond will focus the minds of the Argentine side somewhat, though I'm sure they will also appeal the surety Bond amount if its asked for, no surprises there.
milei definitely wants to dollarise the peso ok, and yet just the other day I read a respected ordinary British fiscal studies organisation report that stated they believe the peso and Argentina would be better off keeping the peso to control their own countries fiscal policies , that was their totally independent reports outcome, and yet the Argentine people are suffering terribly by horrific inflationary pressures, and squirrerling away as many dollars as possible to offset the pesco's depreciation, the country has tried practically everything else now , so yes yes yes why not give the dollar a go , the Argentine people have very little to lose now except their country's national currency, so it's more than possible they will jump on board Javier mileie 's American greyhound bus tour, what's the worst can happen here ? surly it can't be worse than what they are already going through from around the year 1975 onwards , it has to stop sometime , dollarise ASP I say.
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/in-argentina-voters-toy-with-ditching-pesos-for-dollars.phtml
GLA
Christopher Bogart stated in one of his YouTube investors presentations / 4 months ago and a in person Q&A session , that judge preska had indicated to I assume our own lawyers that Preska's stated that a judgement around the calculations of our award could come in at around a months range for those calculations to be done, so it's very possible we could get that news next week bar any unforseen problems , next week is then over over a months range from that award calculations trial finished, See the YouTube presentation below, go to around the 9th minute to hear Chris Bogart state this himself, it's seemingly from Preska's own mouth in the actual YPF winning case itself. it's probably around our own estimated time frames anyway.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?si=pmH84Of-FQRYghXd&v=oABuR1-HzII&feature=youtu.be
GLA.
Well MrMarroc after reading quite a number of your earliest post here when you initially joined this forum I may actually believe now that you are advising someone ok, your intricate particular knowledge of Argentina itself indicates to me a person who has actually lived in that country, so whilst I may not fully agree on some of your statements here ,I certainly will respect all of your views on everything posted here, good night and enjoy your weekend.
GLA
As you can see the Argentine media follow YPF and everything around its problems and fortunes, that's why every big national news paper or news group have there own different specialist journalist / economic journalist who write and follow up on these types of stories , and even to contact Sebastian maril for his expert opinions on all these issues, it tru!y baffles me why you don't think these big news groups don't have there own in-house economic journalist, and they often ask permission from other news media groups to basically print what other journalists have written,
My point being is it's most likely somebody / a Argentine journalist will ask Javier milei what his opinion is on the paying of our upcoming court award, not challenge Javier milei as you state, but to simply ask a simple very important question that has very serious implications for his country's financial wellbeing/ $16 billion dollar headache, it's to important to not ask this question, it's actually ridiculous not to ask this question, it's not a few million dollars we are talking about, it's a astronomical amouunt of money to a financially poor country,
All anybody needs to know is that Argentina has lost this case and the amount of money for Argentina to find and pay is at least $5 billion dollars to $8.4 billion dollars after a 50% discount on our award, the rest doesn't really matter, they know they have lost here bar a certain losing appeal, that's it, it's not complicated,
Yes this issue is a real hot potato to hold in Argentine politics right now, though Javier milei and his take and outlook on economics seems to strongly Indicate that he will fully participate in world trade in a fair and amicable way, and that also should mean to respect world and american adverse court awards .
This settlement figure when announced will be firmly in the minds of all Argentine politicians and namely Javier milei, because he will have to deal with this settlement award if he really wants to dollarise the peso, the only way around that is to put up a very large appeal bond to kick this down the road again to give himself some breathing space, and that's a very strong possibility because then he can be free to dollarise the peso without looking like a non court award payer, that's ok with me as long as the appeal bond is at the very least $500 million dollars, as I'm accepting no poverty pleas by their lawyers in American courts. Mrmorroc with the shares down and investors probably unhappy , I really like yourself don't want to cause any unnecessary bad feelings here, so please have a brilliant weekend and let's hope some cheeky Argentine journalist says to Javier milei ? Will you pay burford their court award ? And he says with a big smile , yes yes yes every single penny of Burfords court award, have a good weekend everyone.
GLA
https://www.batimes.com.ar/search?q=Ypf
MrMarroc that doesn't sound believable, your saying that the Argentine media don't know these proceedings with enough detail to ask questions . !!! , it's been all over the Argentine media for at least 5 years now , sure we've mostly all here seen the Argentine media reports ourselves and translated them into English to read for ourselves and then mostly posted them on this forum, !
I'm sure the current political parties in power understand more in-depth knowledge about this case , though that would just come from their personal paid advisers getting information from their own top lawyers, with javier milei being a economist I'm sure he reads his own countries newspapers and economic fortunes, the YPF case that's already paid out $5 billion dollars, I'm sure he knows this story only to well to have a view on this whole subject of the YPF case, so if your telling me that nobody in the Argentine media would ask Javier milei about his view on our upcoming possibly $ 16 billion dollar award then I suggest you do your homework again around this subject matter, because it seems inconceivable that the media wouldn't ask milei about how this settlement could be paid by Argentina , when you consider he could very well be it's next president. I believe Javier milei will have to pay this settlement award if he wants to dollarise the peso, plus it's the right thing to do in international commercial law.
GLA
Totally agree JC, the reason the Britishbulls.com should especially be ignored is this, no.one outside Burfords boardroom knows how good our next set of results are, they could easily come in at a historically high, and if not then I'm quite sure it will definitely be our end of year results that delivers a historically high earnings result for Burford, one of these results should truly catapult our shares much higher,
Then we have the YPF settlement award coming in around September, with Argentina already acknowledging they have to at least pay Burford around $5 billion dollars, though most likely much more than that amount.
Now here's a the biggest reason not to sell our shares right now , its this, it just takes one interviewer to ask Javier milei what does he intend to do about paying adverse foreign / USA court judgements against Argentina ?, Will he honour the American court's , as he wishes to dollarise Argentina, and if he says he will respect and pay foreign settlement awards then Burfords shares will probably double in price, that's the risk that britishbulls.com company are giving its investors, if he just utters those few words to the media , WE WILL PAY UP OK, then it's to late for any investors to get back in and double their money from that news,
I suspect our shares are typically as others here have indicated / JC himself and others , that our shares will probably tread downwards with the long wait on the settlement amount being released, and also this wait being exploited by the market players / small investors and short sellers, never mind the market trying to second guess what Javier Milei will even do once in power. This situation is perfect for some people to exploit, though I will say this again, just a few words from Milei about paying court judgements and brithisbull.com will have EGG on their faces with this one and also cost their investors a fortune in the medium to long run , put your money on and take your chance , yes the shares may drop again going by the American share price, though it will only be a small temporary drop until burfords shares fly when we get our next earnings call and our YPF settlement amount, throw in javier mileis answer around our settlement award and we should be well in the money here, remember the IMF have scheduled in a online meeting with milei to find out what his intentions are around fiscal policies in Argentina, as they are lending tens of billions to Argentina, and it seems that mileis course of action in power is actually even more stringent than the IMF had asked for, so the point I'm making here again is that somebody will surly at some stage ask milei about his views on honouring foreign adverse court awards, if he say we will as I expect he will , then we are seriously rich holding Burfords shares.
PDYOR, GLA
Yes privatise YPF and national airline, but do it with mostly Argentina's own commercial companies and in conjunction with other outside of Argentina commercial companies / American companies , and give them a reasonable share stake if they undertake to pump billions of dollars into YPF and the national airline + others, get the hundreds of billions of dollars of investments into Argentina's mainly natural resources, only these big multinational companies can move very quickly to spend that sort of money, though this will only happen if they can fully trust the ruling Argentine government regime, and one that respects international court led settlement awards, that's a given before the billions come pouring in, the dollarization issue is more complex, but could be achieved if the majority of Argentine people themselves get behind that issue, I think it's around 60% for keeping the pesco now ? , Argentina essentially loses it's independent financial controls over its fiscal policies, and hands that essentially over to the American fiscal policy makers, though sure Argentina has tried everything else and the country is still in trouble with its never ending inflation nightmares, though milei might have put a foot wrong by openly admiring Donald trump and I imagine angering the Biden administration , if he wants to dollarise Argentina he had better improve his diplomatic skills very quickly indeed. Though as long as he pays Burfords settlement award first, then for all I care he can use sea shell's for his national trading currency never mind using the dollar . Though until all this becomes clear and milei actually verbally states he will make good on all his foreign losing court awards, and states they will be settled in full after negotiations are concluded, then our shares will be a understandably unpredictable to price accurately, sure we've seen that for many years now, "what's new " , LOL.
GLA
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-milei-vows-pay-country-184053945.html
I just seen on bloomberg news on tv, exact words , = it says Milei vows to pay Argentina's Debt while shuttering central bank.
So let's hope that includes its court led settlement awards and debts.
GLA.