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Youonly your questioning on tax relief was well placed, when I asked AI about this the other week it gave me a definite yes then to getting tax relief on any unpaid court awards, and now again when I asked AI the same questions it states that it would be unlikely to be offset against future profits, though it did say now that there might be some limited tax relief available through bad debt deductions or capital Loss claims. So my assumption that Buford could claim all that award if unpaid is plainly wrong, so apologies for that misinformation. Though the American government still might use it's in the interest of American foreign policy making some discretion and give Argentina some space and help out here by allowing some kind of extra tax relief on this settlement award to Burford, it's the least they can do as they are currently holding up preskas court proceedings and asset collection protocols. If we win and we will win this ypf case outright then surly it can be seen at some level as uncollectable receivables or profits, be that in cash form or net asset based form, remember Burford writes a lot of this YPF case asset into its net assets in the form of what or how it fairly values it's cases at for accounting purposes, so that might be the tax relief angle to approach the American IRS with, they agreed with Burford and the litigation industry to how these values can be arrived at for tax purposes. Though I'm confident there would be some tax relief here ok, though now I wouldn't be so confident as to guess that exact tax relief amount. Probably not $6 billion dollars worth.

Youonly good call to question that $6 billion tax relief assertion by me.

GLA

Yes with interest rates going down it does increase Burfords asset base on the balance sheet, these shares are a give away at his price considering the huge potential for asset and share gains here, as I've stated before burforBuford will hugely benefit from a Argentine settlement or avail of any USA court awarded non payment of the YPF award, so Burford could save 21% tax all its profits , leading to higher returns for its other investors or it's asset management division, it's should increase all its profits across the board and giving Burford even better management fees along with the ordinary huge savings on the basic ordinary profits, 21% tax saving , now just roughly here , that could save Burford $70 million dollars a year or much higher when you factor in the other revenue streams and TAX savings, that could easily and instantly put $700 to $1 billion of a valuation onto Burfords share price or Valuation. Burford is going to substantially profit one way or the other here.

There's no telling what Burfords share price will do on any given date, though I'm very happy with the heads we win and tails we win wi5h a massive USA tax write off with Burfords profits for and 20/25 year's, also because Burford will be allowed the tax write off then that means it can use this tax benefit to borrow much larger amounts of money from institutions or banks at even more favourable rates than in the past for investors for litigation cases and essentially pay the interests on that money with the USA 21% tax allowances that it gets from the American government, or Burford just gets a big outright settlement from Argentina, I know what's the more likely to pay out here, and it's certainly looking great from where I'm sitting. Interest rates going down in itself will push Burfords shares higher in asset form of share price form.

And when things are just going nicely here thankfully, we now have Kamala Harris leading in the American polls. The quicker the world discards Trumps nonsense the better for humanity in its entirety. I don't think I will ever understand why so many people would vote for someone like trump.

GLA.

Here's another rewarding side to this story, the American government / Democrat or republican have been monitoring our YPF case very closely as we've just seen, either political party will want to give some justice to American interest / big banks and financial institutions , they have poured some serious money into this YPF case, plus you have a American litigation titan in Burford capital, so the democrats are concerned about their own American interest in Argentina's future, so they have a dilemma here, they are duty bound to uphold the new York YPF case award after the legal process has finished, though Argentina say they can't pay, so here's a way that might or should help both parties, the full award is around $16 billion, Burfords slice is around $6+ billion, now if Burford can't collect that amount and the IRS tax authorities in America accept they can't collect $6 billion ,and that's no problem because the current and new American administration will back that up ok in a sped up fact finding process, then Burford will be allowed that full $6 billion in its current and future tax relief, I stress this is a normal tax relief occurrence, though with the obvious American governments intervention then Burford should avail of not having to pay any tax for a very long time until Burford have saved $6 billion in future tax relief and earnings, and that amount of money will eventually get added to our core assets and value,

I actually think that this route could be far more rewarding for Burford and especially if Burford keeps growing the way it has done over the last number of years, I've checked this out and believe me the American administration won't stand in the way of Burford tax relief as it helps Argentine state and keeps Argentina on side and gives Burford more money than it otherwise would have got in any protracted negotiations and numerous years of waiting, if this all heads in this direction then just add another $6 billion dollars onto Burfords current valuation in several years time, though there should be a instant price mark up in anticipation of the higher future Burford valuation.

Remember this will go one way or the other, collect final court award/ Burford only , $1.5 billion to $3 billion ??? or take the full non collectable amount from Argentina , the $6 billion in USA tax relief, The USA tax relief is the the most certain $6 billion that Buford can bank on. With the American administration giving it's absolute blessing. Remember Trump himself had countless years of opportunistic tax relief on his business , and negotiated with the American government many years ago, Burford will have no problems with availing of this YPF case like this and in hand with any American government.

GLA

Like what kind of statement of interest does the USA have in the YPF shares, the USA knows preska has to legally turn these shares over to debtors to the UK or to Burford debtors, and in some shape or form, so it must be a obvious Financial Extremely HoT potatoe right now, Argentina needs the USA and the USA has uses for the Argentine state and it's resources,

So who knows maybe the USA might line up some substantial lines of credit for Argentina and help out with all these lost court judgements and awards, plus even help Argentina to dollarize their economy, now wouldn't that keep Argentina closely aligned with the American way of thinking and snub China and Russia. That's really possible here, the sort of money Argentina needs would easily be found by Washington, and that goes for whoever gets into power, that new york district attorney Damian williams was appointed by joe biden, so the democrats must have some type of plan to help Argentina out of the mess they are in, if Trump gets in he will definitely help Argentina or rather Milei out. though I don't see trump going to much against USA interest and not getting a decent settlement for American interest/ Burford. Plus you have the democrats on the side of fairness and the LAW, and they are watching this carefully to protect American interest, so we should be covered either way here. So the results of the American election will determine who does what and when.

GLA

Yes TWT it's all about getting as much legal mostly financial pressure from anywhere from Burford onto the Argentine state .

GLA

Https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/burford-cites-argentine-governor-in-pursuit-of-16-billion-ypf-award.phtml

GLA

Rider75 your post is very close to the mark ok, the Argentine state officials have already informed their own parliament that they should provide over $8 billion of a potential settlement figure for the outcome of the YPF case ,

Aceofclubs what planet are you posting from, you say Burford doesn't provide enough income to cover it's cost, then you should tell Mr Bogart yourself immediately, because he will kill himself laughing at that statement, what part of a 90% win rate with a 27 % ROIC on deployment money do you not understand, Burford much more than covers it's cost plus makes a very substantial profit outside of a worldwide pandemic. So I believe you owe rider75 a big apology , come to think of it you owe Bluewiley another apology over you trying to be a smart clever dic# and you selling yourself short with those Just Group plc shares , unless your not man enough to do that. Though it's generally ok to sell yourself short but not be a nonsensical Clever Dic#,

Ps, don't take this to heart , it's not meant to offend.

GLA

Honestly I wonder what some poster's are on here. LOL.

GLA

Still a Strong buy rating . All these independent financial industry ratings can paint a accurate balanced financial picture of Burfords possible future share price . though it's the YPF future settlement money that has investors really tuned in here.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/burford-capital-strong-buy-on-favorable-ypf-case-outlook-and-sustained-earnings-growth-1033670175

GLA

From pennylots. 5th March 2024

Indications are that the auditors are querying the value of the YPF claim in BUR's balance sheet. In that case SP sub £10 is likely. The SEC approved valuation method is being shown up as lipstick on a pig. Capital provision assets would be a difficult sell in a liquidation, not that I am suggesting that as a possibility at this point. Just saying they don't have much readily realisable value. If the auditors are unhappy about YPF, it is a short step for them to question whether BUR is a going concern.

My guess is that a rescue rights issue is needed to stabilise BUR's finances for the foreseeable future. Maybe at £7 a share?

FINISH

And you were questioning if Burford was a " going concern " and I assume your invested here !!!? are you right in the head pennylots, a $7+ billion litigation investment company and your actually questioning if its a going concern ok. Just look at the increases per year in Burfords Net Asset Value per Share from Dec 2023 backwards $14.06 $10.31 $9.03 $8.10 $6.35

Now does that look like Buford isn't making share holders any money and just needs to keep raising funds that do nothing at all and it's not a great money making machine Pennylots. With respect go back to the drawing board pennylots .

GLA.

Pennylots with respect would you wise up here, I appreciate the time you've taken to write that though it's nearly always a negative spin on Burfords cash flows, and a presumption that Buford needs to raise more money to keep the company afloat, that's complete rubbish, it has continuously needed funds to keep funding the very high level of case loads that have been offered to it by fortune 500 companies and there normal and constantly yearly increasing litigation cases and needs,

And also to stay ahead of it's nearest competition , that's how it to go be the litigation titan that it is, if it listened to you pennylots Burford would have stopped funding cases and just kept all the profits and sat on a big fat cash pile to stop you saying it needs more funds and has no real cash flow to show investors, it's actually ridiculous to ask Burford to stop raising more money for litigation cases, it's like attacking amazon for showing no end of year profits because they are ploughing all there money earnings money back into the business to get it to grow,

You already know Burford is normally geared towards bigger earnings and case resolutions nearer or at the year end, and even at that like amazon they might get a massive litigation case load to invest into at the year end, and so they as usual might need more funding but not as we've historically seen any share rights issues and you've before stated, Burford is building not losing money as you seem to want to portray. It's a safe enough money making machine in my estimation 90% plus win rate.

I'm going to next post one of your earlier this year post to show you how wrong you are and will continue to be on this line of rights issue's nonsense etc,

GLA

Surfie1961 please don't take my personal spin on that FT writeup , that article stands on its on feet, my spin could easily be taken for a delayed much longer term settlement payout, I genuinely dont know what's going to happen in the next few months or more regarding preska's YPF seizure of not, as I've said before wouldn't you think that the YPF assets or shares would return to the injured party where they were originally ? stolen ? from , it makes more sense and more political sense to align YPF assets as compensation to us than to tell the Argentine people those shares should go to a UK coupon settlement payment, the Argentine people can understand they were mistakenly took without proper compensation to those YPF shareholders, unless someone starts shouting vulture funds in the Argentine press. It's a political hot potato ok,

I genuinely believe if the money could easily be found then milei would be making better sounds around court settlement awards, and if the world goes into any kind of downturn then milei will be under even now pressure from his own electorate, in fact he maybe out off Office, though that doesn't take away our rights to our settlement award, it just makes it more difficult to get our hands on it.

So surfie in a nutshell don't put any real credibility on what I'm saying, I'm no intellect like Sebastian maril or anyone like him, just a average investor by a personal average view. Sebastian maril is at the top of his game and even he doesn't know how this will all play out in the courts or in the Argentine state. Though Sebastian does know that Argentina eventually settles nearly all its court awards at some stage, though you really have to fight the Argentine state to get them to pay up.

I would rather Argentina kept its YPF shares and negotiate some type of payments plan, so then the YPF company can get to work developing those huge oil and gas reserves to pay our settlement payment plan. Preska should be understandably angry that Argentina has ignored her initiatives to pin point Argentine income and payments, so who knows what she might order them to do now, or would it matter what she orders them to do, can they just ignore anything she orders regarding those YPF shares, I don't know !!!. And if that happens can preska order punitive American legal restrictions on Argentine companies trading in the USA share markets ?.

We will eventually get a massive payout in correlation to our companies current valuation.

GLA

GLA.

Well the Ft it wasn't in the printed paper version today, I tried to post that this morning though my iPhone lost the post, I need a new iPhone, though it was exactly where extrader said it was, thanks for that extrader. Also thank you to MrMarroc for the pointer, Sebastian maril has advised the Financial times substantially there ok, big thanks Sebastian,

Excellent analysis around the whole alter ego's situation and a take on the legality of everything, it's just as we thought everything can still be fought over in court to determine that outcome, and that's the whole point in Argentina's lawyers stalling plans to buy milei more time to turn around his economy and to be able to pay our settlement money, I wouldn't be surprised if Argentine lawyers have a already established plan to stretch our YPF case for another few years if milei orders it.

they will challenge anything at all, though there was a mention that they would challenge the YPF case right up to the very top, which can only mean the supreme court were they once might have thought Trump could have done something for them, like give them another few years grace or a big reduced settlement amount, though that's less likely now, it's all just one very big expensive chess game here.

Though Sebastian maril is very well informed and with a load of time spent searching for all Argentine assets that he and his office can identify, I'm sure burford and many other's are reading sebastians very well inform information intently, there's a lot to learn from Sebastian ok. thats why the financial Times only goes to the best informed financial journalist in the world for there information. I would even go so far as to say Burfords recovery team should track everything Sebastian

ever gets printed or even advises on, it could prove to be very revealing and profitable.

For us ordinary bystanders it's difficult to understand what's seizable and what's off limits and sovereign, and yet it's still such a grey area to easily understand , you might be able to seize oil and gas owned by Argentina but not it's dug out of the ground Gold that's held in the UK vault ,off which Argentina owes a UK company around £1.4 billion in a court awarded outstanding coupon interest payments.

Also thank you Bluewiley for that kind endorsement .

GLA.

I don't care who MrMarroc is I'm just so incredibly grateful he's taking the time out to post here, there's organisations out there who are paying good money for his knowledge and expertise, we are getting it for free, LOL.

Thank you MrMarroc and also thank you to that other great man and intellect Sebastian maril, I'm sure they know each other very well. It's a small world LOL.

And according to our American friends we should be over £10 here on Monday, famous last words LOL.

I definitely will read the FT tomorrow. And thank you again MrMarroc,

I appreciate all the posters on here.

GLA

Those results were in line with my own amateur expectations today, though as usual the markets dip our shares as they really don't know how to accurately value Burfords shares, Burford makes a great steady income and that's why I'm invested, though In reality I've as much loyalty to burford as it has to me, if I didn't believe in its great money making compounding growth then I definitely wouldn't be invested here, it's doing just great , these Shares could drop further

tomorrow or soar above £10 again, I haven't a clue to what it's going to do either way though I can see this steadily rising

towards the end of this year's final earnings results, it's actually crazy that these shares are still so lowly valued with such a

great obvious multi year laid out earnings capacity ahead, plus a massive amount of settlement money / YPF , all that potential and the markets want that YPF money in before they crown burford with a substantially higher share price. And to think Burfords shares were once around £19 . You couldn't make it up. Our day will come here.

DYOR GLA.

I've no real concern around growth here, as long as Burford just churns out the large earnings cash year after year then the basic cash and asset level will keep rising, I've no doubts at all Burford will achieve this outcome. that's why it's in business to make 20% to 27% on investors money, yes this will change slightly though our assets are mostly in cash that's either in Burfords bank account or invested into a diversified portfolio of litigation cases, the company is essentially a cash cow with Burford being the number one in the world company to approach if you have a billion dollar litigation caseload to fund,

Look at it like this the cash earnings are just getting compounded into another litigation caseload year after year, this compounding effect on your money can only reasonably grow your money at a very fast rate. Yes the share price will fluctuate all the time though it has by it's very existence to increase in value, and that really is a case cash value that has a 90% win rate, throw in the eventual money from our YPF case settlement and Burfords average 5 or 10 years earnings ratios will look amazing, litigation caseloads in the world and of course in America have only ever increased year on year , so there's your reassurances that Buford can grow if it wishes at a pace that suits it's own bank balance and risk assessment strategy. It's a fantastic way ahead of it's competitors money making machine.

DYOR, GlA

I dont really think I it matters were we are listed during a big share price fall, though the very high PEin the USA really needed some cutting down ok , and unfortunately that will drag a reasonably priced share like Buford down with them, and yet as we know Burford is a recessionary proof share that has little or no correlation to the General USA or world economy , still it's a opportunity to top up for the longer run, Thursday's results will be interesting one way or another , though if ever Burford needed a lot of case's to conclude then Thursday would be the right time LOL, it doesn't concern me as I know Burford is going to churn out a brilliant full year earnings to add to our asset value per share. With anything else just being a

Bonus . Roll on Thursdays results no matter what they are here.

DYOR, GLA,

Https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/ypf-chooses-rio-negro-and-not-buenos-aires-province-to-build-lng-plant-announced-as-the-biggest-investment-in-history.phtml

With YPF possibly getting a $30 to $50 billion dollar investment it's easy to see how important judge preskas decision will be, obviously milei wouldn't want these shares falling into foreign hands , so hopefully preska can angle her decision to get milei to move milei in a more positive direction for the Argentine creditors, seriously the other creditors are at the end of their own litigation journey, so.preska must do something to bring Argentina to the financial settlement table, so who knows she might just push Argentina to their sovereign limits here and request those shares, milei won't be happy to see trumps chances of being President again just slipping away from him, as trump would have been very sympathetic to Milei's financial wows and causes, though America still needs Argentina's natural resources so mi!ei's still ok here, though to a lesser degree, it's not the massive amount of settlement award here that's at stake it's really the interest that's to be paid on the sovereign bonds that should be shelled out to pay the interests on these bonds, that's still a big amount on top of the other historical huge sovereign bond Payment plans , it can definitely be done ok, but only if Argentina gets it's economy moving in the right direction, this could all take another few years though at the same time and realistically could happen very very soon, like in weeks or few months, in order to bring confidence to big multi nationals and in the Argentine economy then it really could pay milei big dividends to address all these outstanding creditors right now, so the quicker he moves to do this then the quicker the Argentine economy could benefit from making itsself look commercially and legally respectable, Burford has clearly won this massive amount of money / and even the appeal in any decent lawyers opinion, so it's all about the current collection process now, roll on the next reporting date 8th August , maybe Bogart will give us a hint at any backdoor dialogues with Argentina ? I'm sticking to my guns and stating that I think Argentina might pay out $8.4 billion in total after a big discount, though I feel Burford themselves would settle for $4 to $5

billion in total, it's all about what they can sensibly squeeze out of Argentina more than any losses that were incurred by the previous owners of the YPF shares or even the accumulated interest in the YPF settlement amount.

DYOR, GLA.

Interesting the Argentine press now speculate about the Argentine Gold.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/due-to-ypfs-debt-could-gold-reserves-be-seized.phtml

GLA

It will be a difficult decision by preska no matter which way she decides, by Argentine standards if the shares are requested by preska to go to Burford or indeed to anyone then of course Argentina is going to cry foul and put up a sovereign defence, it's not any more excessive to take or request these shares from Argentina than it was for them to be essentially stolen in the first place from the plaintiffs or previous share owner's, yes these YPF shares have a special place in Javier milei's overall plan for the Argentine economy and it's own voters perception that the country can develope it's own oil and gas reserves, that's perfectly understandable ok, though he now needs to engage with the country's creditors/ Burford, even at a / please give Argentina more time to turn things around level, just talk to Burford and the other creditors, so in saying all that I would expect preska to come down hard on Argentina because she's already asked them for a large surety payment for our YPF case win and got absolutely nothing at all , not even a reasonable financial mediation process, if she gives those shares to anyone I would expect a robust refusal from the Argentine side, though maybe with a offer of a proper Argentine acceptance of a new genuine creditors dialogue taking place, be that another stalling tactic from Argentina or not. Look there's no getting away from it Argentina and Javier milei are up against some massive financial restrictions here, so only a genuine creditors dialogue about all these sovereign and commercial matters would pacify those creditors right now, I feel Argentina in under enough creditors pressure from Burford and other's to come to the table very soon or rather this year, so if preska can order those shares to be given to the Argentine creditors then Argentina will be forced to deal with this financial mess right now, but sure isn't that how Argentina deals with all these types of problems, / when it has nowhere else to turn to or stall everything again and again and again. The one thing I'm sure about is that Buford sooner or later is going to get some very serious money from this YPF case.

GLA.