Member Info for Gtx1

This is a first class earlier this year post, it's still one of the best post I've ever seen here and also outlines the investment proposition and obvious reasons to purchase Burfords shares, well worth another look at it if only to reaffirm the reasons your holding these shares.

https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/BURFORD_CAPITAL_LTD/5322640630

GLA.

Couerdelion it's great to see your doing your due diligence before investing into Burfords proposition to investors, you seem to be doing a excellent job of it for sure, now will Burfords shares jump on the news of Argentina's gold and money movement's ?

Gla, and good night everyone.

Brilliant MrMarroc, after a we bit of searching it seems that Argentina sent a portion of its reserves to switzerland to the bank of international settlements, that was part of a policy to use to stabilise the peso which has been under significant pressure and also to create immediate liquidity

Though as you've mention yes they did send another portion of gold to London , that strategy was used for securing foreign exchange and using gold as collateral for fresh USA dollars, although most of the central banks Gold would still be held in Buenos Aires vaults, it held 61.74 metric tons in 2024 , so it would be very interesting to find out exactly how much gold is left then, that would tell us how much was sent to switzerland and London, I would imagine it's government policy to make this information available to its own congress at some stage.

As you state MrMarroc there might be the potential to seize this gold or money at some stage, or is it placed there as you suggest that it might be easier letting this money be taken for lost court settlement awards than to run the gauntlet of getting it passed and paid through its own congress and with the potential of the Argentine people protesting in the streets at milei paying all that money out while his own people financially suffer , it could all be in the mix here along with potentially getting the YPF company shares away from a new York court seizure order or directive. So many intriguing and interesting scenarios that could play out here, though Burford is definitely inline for some very serious money that's coming our way.

DYOR, GLA.

Couerdelion as TWT states Burfords accounts and figures can be very confusing and they may need a bigger brain than I have to decipher Burfords accounts figures and breakdowns, though it's helpful to know that with Burfords litigation case loads it's only marked up in a lowly valued fair accounting way, so the actual real value of its cases are probably much higher than they ever would state on there balance sheet, in other words if burford decided to sell any case to a 3rd party to take over any given case then they could sell the case for considerably more than it's marked into Burfords balance sheet and net assets at, as any case progresses it's value goes up or down or no movement at all, but as burford wins over 90% of its cases it's most likely that 90% of cases get more valuable along with Burfords net asset values.

Yes confusing to put it mildly, though to see how well Burford is doing for investors just look at how much the net assets are increasing at per year with compounding growth, it's that simple for me, and with the safety that you can see the money already deployed there for the next day 3 years and be reasonably assured that 20% to 27% + of profit can be made from the 90% win rate on that money. It's quite simple when you look at it my way though the entire accounting picture can look extremely difficult to understand and come to terms with here. Though Burford just keeps churning out the big profits year after year out side of a worldwide pandemic and even at that those pent up profits are just delayed never gone, it's a great money making machine that builds your cash assets up year after year, everyone should have some of these shares tucked away for their retirement pension pot LOL.TO A

Bluewiley any good news coming from argentina is music to my ears, though Javier milei seriously needs Trump to help him kick start the Argentine economy and help pay Burford what it's owed, I honestly detest the thought of trump getting elected again, though his presidency could be our own silver lining for our YPF settlement case money.

DYOR, GLA

Couerdelion hit the Burford fundamentals box above, then go right down to the bottom / net assets per share, you'll see $14.06 dollars for 2023 that translates into £10.82 p just work on that basis net value to give yourself a financial bearing in Burfords ever increasing earnings per year, and as you can see the company has done brilliantly, the financial security and potential is there ok for all to see f, then work out what Burford itself states it can historically earn from the money employed and it's IRR = internal rate of return, basically the earnings , the earnings can be all over the place , and even running into the end of the year as lawyers work schedules tend to cause that outcome, Burford on average makes around 27% on its deployment money for itself, though the YPF case should change that historical figure dramatically, as long as Burford can get me over 20% profit per year on deployment money then I will be very happy, and it's easily doing more than that right now, and as TWT states Burfords accounts are confusing ok, so your best to look at the very basics of what Burford is worth in net assets and the returns on deployment money, it's a great compounding net asset builder. As I've shown you just look at its history and see for yourself , now just imagine how that can build you a fortune in net assets and share price over a 10 year time span.

GLA, DYOR.

BBH , I know we have a $16+ billion dollar award and then interest added on here, though believe me if burford was offered

$1.5 billion dollars tomorrow by Argentina they would run to the bank with it, burford have already indicated that shareholders shouldn't expect anything like the actual award itself, a much lower figure was indicated ,but no actual figure was mentioned at all, I'm just going on my novice knowledge around the subject matter, I genuinely feel it's not to far from the truth, then sometimes you have to take a reality check and think about the actual massive sums involved here, a billion dollars is even a massive sum for Argentina to pay out right now, though manageable if it's the interest on a sovereign bond ,and even at that Argentina is struggling right now, that's why it's in Argentina's own interest as Sebastian

Maril has stated Argentina must genuinely negotiate with its creditors to resolve all these debts, it's in everyone's interest to do that, imagine if Argentina gave Burford and the others $8.4 billion dollars in sovereign bonds right now and with a lower interest rate on those bonds, if the financial markets see this take place and this may even lift the value of these bonds so they might be worth even more than $8.4 billion dollars, that in itself will create confidence in the Argentine quest to get access to the open money markets, the IMF may allow quicker access to this and if Trump gets elected he himself will make sure Argentina gets access to the money markets, that again could shoot up the value and confidence in Argentina's sovereign bonds, and that could mean our sovereign bond could be worth considerably more that there original value, milei needs a we bit of luck here and it may come in the shape of a trump presidency, trump will reward him for his loyalty in some way or another, so I'm guessing it will be to put up the dollars for a dollarization plan or a verbal assurance that America guarantees a certain amount backed by Argentine natural resources, and that alone would create a massive amount of much needed confidence in Argentina's sovereign bonds and debt repayments. And that means a big pay day for Burfords shareholders.

GLA, DYOR

It's my take on this be it right or wrong , if it sounds feasible then maybe there's potential in what I'm staying here.

Just to clarify my settlement figure of $8.4 billion was for the totality of the actual settlement amount after a 50% discount is applied, that's what the Argentine financial advisers pencilled in for the YPF case, they had to accurately and legally advise the Argentine state to the potential liabilities of the YPF case, they themselves gave the game away very early on in this case, so as Mr Marroc states burfords cut is approximately 39% of this amount so that is approximately $3276 million dollars, that's plenty enough for me ok, Burfords all about minimising risk to its investments money, even if Burford walks away with $1.5 billion for itself then that's still a massive fantastic achievement here, I'm happy either way,

GLA, DYOR.

TWT I agree the next 12 months is crucial in seeing some movement with our case and settlement awards, milei is really up against it here though trump could change all that very quickly for milei, that is if he doesn't go on a mission to go after his enemies, and that's most of the world from were I'm sitting LOL.

I've a excellent profit in Burford so far, though what I'm looking for is a big financial buffer here in the shape of a massive settlement payment to Burfords coffers, that would assure my money is much safer here and my investment in the shape of Burfords net cash assets , should Burfords shares tank for any unforseen reason then I've a minimum cash assets to realise, I actually think that once Burford gets clear of the YPF saga then the entire company could be in play for the buyout specialist or big institutions, they have any amount of money to fund any amount of litigation cases and Burford has arguably the expertise and big solid connections with the top law companies or practises, a big buyout wouldn't surprise me at all after YPF is finished, so if we can get a settlement in the next 12 months my money should be substantially secure and safer and in a share that has to add at least 20% to 27% per year to its net assets, throw in a American interest rate cut which is eminent and you add to the value of Burfords intangible assets. In the mean time our share price will continue on its yoyo trajectory, Bluewily any top ups should be handsomely rewarded in good time, £10 is still a excellent low enough price to pay considering the risk to reward ratio here, there's extremely few companies who's profits are not correlated to the General economic cycles like Buford, so I see burford like a money making machine like no other company industry, it should be a must buy for any diversified portfolio manager or private citizen alike. And it's still in its I fancy, so there could be a massive further take up in litigation funding in future years and that means bigger profits and much higher share prices ahead for Buford and it's competitors, it's all to play for and burford is the number one company in this field ,

I'm absolutely convinced Argentina will at some stage pay burford $8.4 billion , that's what they themselves have pencilled in for paying our case, that's their words not mine, though anything close to that would work for burford even as TWT states $5 billion would pop the corks in Burfords head office, LOL.

I'm off to the dreaded dentist now/ CLEAN, have a great day everyone.

GLA, DYOR.

TWT the russell 2000 and preskas decision is all in the mix here I'd say, your cheering one.day and the next your reaching for the tissues LOL. It's some decision for preska ,she asked for those shares to be pledged against our award and the appeals process and now she's deciding who those shares should go to right now with the other financially injured parties and their court led awards, you would think that Buford would have precedence over those shares as they were essentially stolen from our clients and shareholders , or maybe she might just combine the whole Argentine embarrassing financial saga into one job lot, as in Argentina doesn't want to negotiate with the injured parties at all, so she may highlight this with sharing the YPF shares out to everyone, now how would that look to the financial markets and world , in fairness it's probably fair to do it that way, though In the legal context judge preska originally pinned those shares to burfords case win long before anyone else had set their eye's on them, so maybe just maybe preska will try to get them YPF shares to burford alone. Preska was a republican party appointee ,by Bush I believe, so it's most unlikely trump or anyone else would challenge preskas decision, that's not to say trump if he gets into power he won't work out some other form of payment to burford from the American purse , and probably tied up with Argentine grain, mineral and drilling rights to Argentina's massive natural resources and assets, milei would go for that ok, trump and milei keep China at bay and the evil of putin smiling with his very expensive Ukraine lands,

Argentina and milei really need some extra help here , so sadly it might come in the shape of a trump presidency.

If I live to 100 I will never understand anyone who buys into trumps lies a and stupidity. that's putting it really politely.

TWT Burford shares are ridiculously cheap considering we have a massive settlement award that has to be addressed by Argentina at some stage, it's loads of money in the bank as far as I'm concerned. I done a 70k top up at around £10 to £10.46 last week, though I'm in for the long haul here, compounding returns, bull or bear market, it's doesn't matter with burford, the best is yet to come with burford. Brilliant company.

GLA, DYOR.

The russell 2000 index is up over 3% today so I guess it maybe the reason we're up in the USA, tomorrow should lift our UK share price and spirits here somewhat, though you couldn't count on it staying up LOL. If trump gets into power I'm sure he will help Argentina in some way financially / dollarization, and also ensure American businesses get their USA court awards paid, / America first as trump keeps saying, how did trump miss that bullet/ he's done a deal with the devil, LOL.

GLA.

DYOR.

Well this Also backs extratrader up ok.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/burford-capital-gains-amid-report-sundance-resources-settled-with-republic-of-congo/ar-BB1pitBT?ocid=BingNewsSerp

GLA

Dartron this should make you feel better,

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2024/07/01/assetco-s-demerger-a-catalyst-for-bumper-gains/?xnpe_tifc=OkYpOIxXxfn74._lx.hN4jpsafeWaeiWhFWlRkiAbM4NVuijauU1a9Q3EdiZakncbdiArF_lbDYJhfnlxdx84DVp4koT&utm_source=exponea&utm_campaign=IC%20-%20Investment%20Daily%20-%20Newsletter%20-%2002.07.24&utm_medium=email

The ultimate risk here might be with the major oil companies committing to expenditure in these oil fields even with current licences, it might pay them to move abroad lock stock and barrel if Labour don't make it worth there wile with tax allowances with there expenditure outlays. risky situation.

GLA

Never been invested here though I would have been tempted ok, Labour have got this badly wrong, they could have worked it better if they had powered ahead with wind and solar and slowly wound down the North sea operations and achieved the best for both parties, other countries will be laughing at the stupidity of Labour's decision, as other countries have learned and rolled back on their own oil closures. A stupid decision, I'm surprised that JOG hasn't collapsed down to 30p a share, on a brighter note there still might be some real value in JOG if the main original deals go ahead with or without cost allowances of the operation.

GLA.

Berenberg Bank still have no qualms about issuing a buy rating on burford for £16 a share, and that's still before any YPF settlement amount gets factored into the share price, a genuine steal at this price . The shorters just love this share when burfords profits get pushed into another reporting period, they will push it down and then up again in the coming weeks and months, it wouldn't matter if burford posted a reasonable 1st quarter profit, the shorters are looking for anything that's not a spectacular earnings period result and then they just press the shorting sell button, the thing is they will nearly always have to buy back in again as burfords shares are heading for at least a doubling of our share price inside the next year or so, if you have a half a brain in your head then this drop shouldn't faze you at all other than a slight disappointment of a day or two, it always marches upwards after such a fall, and yes it's nearly a tradition now that our shares fall near or after reporting day LOL, I know I shouldn't laugh, but it's ironic that a fantastic earnings compounding leader in its field of litigation gets punished because to many investors don't truly understand burfords earnings periods and potential ,plus the shorters add to this unjustified drop, I'm actually taking this drop as a gift and opportunity to pick up more shares in the coming days and weeks,

I've every confidence in our share price at least doubling at some point, yes it's hard to be exact here, yes Javier Milei has his work cut out ok, though he's so far into his plans that even his opponents can see he's making ground on reducing inflation in Argentina and getting international respect for his country's fiscal policies, with the rewards from that being Better terms with the IMF and big businesses from around the world, if the argentine people can stomach this financial pain a bit longer then it could pay the whole country in the long run to toe the line somewhat here, if Milei succeeds here then so does burfords shareholders, and massively, if he doesn't succeed then our settlement award will take longer to collect ok, I'm very confident Milei definitely wants and needs to get rid of all these court awards and obstacles to his country returning to the international money markets, he must pay us first or in stages and in tandem to his country becoming very prosperous and financially wealthy again. he stands a very good chance here as the fiscal numbers are adding up in his favour here, let's hope his voters give him the space and time to carry out what he was elected to do, and that is to make Argentina great again. Burford is a fantastic in front head and shoulders leader in the litigation world, when the market wakes up to burfords true potential these shares will definitely sit around £26 to £40 a share, I've no doubts at all , it's a brilliant investment.

DYOR, GLA.

There is no way milei would not respect our American court judgement , bar milei getting taken out of office or killed, it's plain to see he will negotiate that $16 billion dollar award when his legal options have run out, just look at this link below were he just can't get close enough to the American administration and forces, anyone who admires America like this certainly won't walk away from a American court judgement against Argentina. " Money in the bank I say." There's still plenty of time to pick these shares up very cheaply./ Like Right now.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/milei-we-must-strengthen-strategic-alliance-with-united-states.phtml

Gla.

It wouldn't be Burford capital if the share price wasn't going up and down like a yoyo, though it seems to eventually get much higher than some investors ever imagined, $20 dollars a share isn't to much to ask for here.

Javier milei is visiting Miami next week and then on to other meetings, According to his official agenda, the President is also scheduled to head a series of mostly business meetings on US soil. So you can be reasonably sure milei wouldn't be asking for the American business leaders help if he had any intentions of not respecting the American judiciary and it's court led court awards, so we can expect to get several billion dollars into Burfords coffers in some type of payments plan.

The share price can do whatever it wants today or tomorrow because we know it's heading above $20 late this year or early next year. Just look at its asset increases every from 2019, tell me that's not a fantastic increase in your personal wealth, hold tight I say.

Net Asset Value per Share $14.06 $10.31 $9.03 $8.10 $6.35

2023 2019

Gla

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Gla

It's not the initial sales of eroxon I'm wondering about , it's purely the repeat orders coming in that really matters , and yes it maybe far to early to expect to much information around repeat orders coming in to futura. If eroxon gets good repeat orders from even a continuation of good shop sales then futura's shares will fly here, I only have the trials data to go on and that's excellent ok, though continuous physical shop sales are needed to confirm a good solid traction into this market place, boots surely would have those continuous sales figures for every month from launch day, also James Barder could easily attain those figures from boots etc, or even the eroxon manufacturers , on the 10th April surly someone will ask James barder the obvious question then ?. I'm sure it's doing ok, but is Eroxon still selling well compared to viagra. this product could still be a worldwide blockbuster, though the size of upfront milestone payments from other countries will tell us how Eroxon is selling in the UK and Europe.

Gla

Accomp very easy mistake converting dollars/ pounds back and forth, with me it's usually euro's and pound's LOL.

There could be huge value in Burfords low share price right now, plus the opportunity to get a slice of this Argentina settlement award that Burford has already won, yes milei might take this right up to the USA supreme court to stretch this out to its maximum to allow himself more time to accumulate more dollars into his coffers for a dollarization programme, though the supreme court might quickly reject it outright, it's to obvious of a wrong doing by Argentina to merit looking at the YPF case again. The massive amounts of daily interest charges ? I actually don't think that milei cares about this accumulating interest money at all or very little, WHY ? Because milei knows if he offers Burford $8.4 billion dollars right now or next year burford will grab it with two hands and run to the nearest high interest bearing bank. This is not a ordinary type of American case where interest can be accumulated wrote up by a judge and then paid by the losing party, when it gets up to these levels then $16 billion and counting , then massive amounts of money will be knocked off to get this all closed down and settled, that unfortunately means writing off billions of dollars of damages and interest payments to finally get this massive case settled. That's just everyday litigation norms and to be expected.

I'm very confident we will get to those ZACKS analyst price targets and possibly much more if Argentina pay out.

Gla.

Accomp it may be helpful if you change your $13 dollar symbol of the dollar sign to a £ pounds sign in your post , as this may make some people think our share price has sunk in New York over night .

Gla