Member Info for Gtx1

Excellent JammyC + S,Marill

Let's hope the share price bounces tomorrow on that news ?? , roll on January the 10th. Milei's playing a dangerous game with his country's commercial future. He may have no real alternative in his own voting publics eyes , none of us will protest on the streets of Argentina because of Burfords lack of settlement money, LOL , exciting times ahead,

GLA

I'm 100% positive in Burfords future potential in it's normal earnings and YPF case, ? Why ? Because Our share price doesn't even truly reflect our normal earnings PE ratio right now, or even the fact that we have won a $16+billion settlement award, that award if unpaid sits on the Argentine and particularly the federal new York courts statue books for 11 years and then renewed again for another 11 years until paid , the $1.4 billion interest rate will keep on accumulating until it's negotiated and paid,

Milei truly is up to his eyes in his 30 initial points of his plan and another 300 presidential package of reforms, it doesn't matter if he's president or not, though it would be much better if he succeeds in his plans and I'm totally convinced he will one day pay all Argentine financial liabilities here, he simply can't pledge the YPF assets without two- thirds of his own congress approving it, a 2012 nationalization law prevents it without congressional approval, and he's in a minority in that congress, so we are whisling in the wind for those ypf shares, it will have to be some other form of revenue stream as a court pledge. Or not !!!.

Those oil producing provinces that supposedly own that 25% stake of the YPF shares, and yet the Argentine government own these province's, how does that work or workout, unless there's been a bit of financial mischief going on there ,or categorically not, ? a strange set of circumstances. Remember Argentina is rife with corruption at the highest levels, you don't get to be a multi millionaire on a Argentine government wage, and yet so many end up being extremely rich with big or several mansions, that's human nature and money for you here. Same in the UK and around the world and especially in Russia. So pennylots milei being a one term president ? I honestly don't know, if he's allowed and able to carry out a reasonable amount of his urgent changes to the money market's / debt structures , peso, and of course the central bank ,

then he might just stand a chance if he's given enough time, failing that he will need that chainsaw to protect himself.

Give him a decent chance to do what he thinks he can do, there's no other current winning formula to test out right now.

Burford will definitely get paid a very large amount of money / billions , the time frame and circumstances is anyone's guess here.

Thanks for that info MrMarroc, it's very useful and informative.

GLA, Happy Xmas.

Rider75 , Burford is on course for one of the best years ever, though only because of the pent-up case's coming through from the pandemic years, in a ordinary year expect income from deployment money of around $600 to $700+ million dollars before overheads, though thankfully 2023 will surpass those ordinary amounts courtesy of the pandemic earnings, that actual final figure is eagerly awaited by us here.

GLA

Https://x.com/SebastianMaril/status/1737645115399631137?s=20

That's my interpretation of this part of this post,

IE, Argentina has also refused plaintiffs proposal to provide some enforcement relief in exchange for accepting service of recognition actions in other jurisdictions +

In other words Burford have offered Argentina more time with enforcement in exchange for Argentina's recognition of the courts judgements, Burford is actually trying to offer a way out for Argentina if they just come to the negotiating table and work this out with the Argentine state, the Argentine state thus far is reluctant to engage in this way with Burford. they're only goal seems to be !! Is to keep this problem away from their big Argentine recovery plan/ kick it down the road for another 2/3 years, that can't happen according to preskas court to - date, so it will be interesting to see preskas response after reading the new Argentine letter and also Burfords generous "we " will work with you letter, and Argentina rebuffing Burfords helpful offers , that part will really bother preska ok. on that basis preska might offer no extension until Argentina

comes clean with her court, and either pledge assets now or indicate that they will pledge assets by February the 22 .

So right now no pledging of assets at any time may or should mean no court extension at all. With enforcement now sanctioned by preska.

Never worry there's worse things happening in the world than our court case fiasco right now, you can replace money, you can't replace a human life .Happy Xmas to everyone posting here and beyond.

GLÀ

And we thought we had problems, milei's head may still end up on a stick, and so soon !!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67783055

That's the clarification I've sought from Burfords side , more time offered to Argentina by Burford, if they need more time to pledge any assets, they wouldn't even engage with Burfords reasonable offer, now preska should move on to worldwide enforcement actions and even more unnecessary destruction of Argentina's commercial reputation, it's outrageously destructive and negative to not even in good faith negotiate with the American courts and burford, Argentina steals commercial assets belonging to a private company and individuals and has the utter cheek to not even acknowledge its wrongdoing or respectfully deal with a American lead court case against the Argentine state, has nothing changed in Argentina yet, they only want this case kicked down the road so they can free up every dollar to further their own countries

Political agenda, dollarization request ?!!! and not to respect the American court's verdicts and determinations , Argentina get lost I say, move to enforcement ASP, let's see what reputational damages can be done to Argentina now. It's true they only pay up when they've no options left, they can't even hand back what they've stolen, outrageous behaviour , preska should publicly declare from her court that the Argentine state steals other countries shares and assets and doesn't respect other foreign courts judgements to compensate those injured parties, get that written up all around the world's press.

See how much damage and cost that brings to the Argentine state, incalculable costs in my estimation.

It's not going to stop me having a brilliant Xmas LOL,

Merry Xmas everyone GLA

Excellent post Brigra, and also a big thanks for the brilliant journalism from Sebastian Maril, just brilliantly written.

I totally understand the frustration with people who don't want to give Argentina any more time or breathing space , we probably don't have to many options here, other than to entertain milei's latest request, think about it , it's Argentina's Xmas holiday season , they won't get into political gear until mid January, is it another stalling tactic ? possibly yes, is it believable they can't pledge billions of Argentine state assets without congressional approval , I'd guess yes to that,

So we are left with giving milei another month on top of his first original deadline, I can actually understand that ok, I don't want it at all , though it's a reasonable time frame to allow milei to come up with a half decent plan to put to preska , or else a half decent plan to stall things again, either way his reasons for a extension are judicially believable, and probably even necessary to pass any offer through his own congress , I agree Argentina's last government only paid out when cornered and put under pressure and then some. Though maybe because Javier milei has already pledged that Argentine creditors must be paid, so with Burford being a creditor ok and big one at that. then maybe he should be given more room to prove that he means what he says, I say court milei, don't attack him at this delicate transition period, he's probably still reeling at being chosen as president and coming to terms with the enormity of being a unlikely long shot president, preska will reluctantly give milei more time , though she should be specifically told if they need more time to pledge the assets, and if milei can't assure preska of that then she should free Burford to collect Argentine assets or block Argentine business in the world, though Burford don't want that scenario as Burford is more likely to collect much more just waiting on a settlement from milei's new administration. So if you asked Burford they would surely sanction a extra month of waiting, because the alternatives won't deliver anything monetary wise any time soon , painful yes, though we've little or no options left that I can see.

We're going to get paid ok, how and when is anyone's guess. February the 22 isn't a long time in the length of this case to find out if milei's serious about repairing the reputation of his own country. As seb maril states, repairing Argentina's reputation should eventually pay for itself with numerous companies taking up residence in Argentina. It's now up to milei, I say work with him and not against him.

The shares will be all over the place until everything becomes clear. though Burford is still a fantastic investment opportunity before Amy settlement and especially after any settlement agreement.

GLA .

In fairness to Argentina it would be a reasonable need and request by the state to seek extra time to come up with a financial solution to preska's pledge of assets and judgement, milei really is up to his eyes in it here, preska should be practical and Grant the extra time though only if Argentina seriously indicate a open willingness right now to pledge substantial assets and indicative of the type that preska has already mentioned, after all Argentina may need congressional approval for any pledges of state assets, Though preska must be mindful of any more of these tactics as seen in the past with underhanded stalling tactics by Argentinas lawyer's, Javier milei has already stated that Burfords court award must be paid, so it's a matter of just when it will be paid and not if it will be paid, I believe milei will clear as many foreign judgements as possible to create as sense of commercial and judicial respect in the world for Argentina,, it will pay the Argentine state to do this with it then achieving lower interest rates in it's foreign borrowings and allow it to avail of the international money markets. Argentina actually needs to clear up all these debts to better it's own country.

So preska needs to offer Argentina another extension if they in essence indicate compliance with her initial judgement order.

GLA

Thanks for all that Brigra. Much appreciated .

Another thing not enough is said about the companies that get into litigation funding and then collapse because of their inadequacies , I've seen at least 3 or 4 though I'm sure there is many many more out there, and that why Burford is the biggest and arguably the very best out there, as that write-up states Burford has a massive database of which it can draw from and now Burford is even using AI to speed everything up. AI might just in the longer term bring down Burfords own headcount , though maybe not to many expensive lawyers .

Wouldn't it be brilliant to get Burfords shares over £11 by Friday LOL.

Good night everyone , Happy Xmas.

The FT did do a reasonable job of appearing unbiased , though where it lacks credibility is it's lack of understanding with the Current politics of Javier Milei's administrative aims, and that is to put Argentina on a similar platform or footing like America, that article doesn't take in the urgent need for milei to align Argentina to the American monetary or judicial system , thus it also doesn't even touch on the multiple possibilities of how Argentina can address it's own need's in this respect, IE the multiple ways Argentina can finance Burfords liabilities, we've seen here from EXtrader 's recent post with the mix and match approach with multiple revenue streams offered to pay other countries financial liabilities, Argentina can easily do the same thing with burford, because Milei desperately needs to make Argentina look like a trustworthy country to do business in, so right now/ 10/30 January it's decision time for him, he must respectfully address the request from Preska's court to put up some type of surety assets, so I would imagine Milei will get creative and offer some type of asset pledges to Burford and preska and in that order, even a share of substantial future revenue streams from a lithium mine development , basically anything that Burford can freely sell on to a 3rd party in mining , there will be many willing buyers out there,

I know milei has his hands full right now, taking from his own people/ peso devaluation etc, and giving real hardship to the increasing numbers of poor people in Argentina is a extremely dangerous road to walk, throw in a massive multi billion liability payments to burford and Milei's enemies will scream about it, Ok that's there job , even though it was the screamers side that causes the liabilities in the first place.

I'm confident milei will be very creative in January and come up with a half decent offering to burford and preska, it will probably be structured in a confusing way that will bamboozle the average Argentine citizen, so as to not have them calling for milei's head on a stick. IE a guaranteed future revenue stream from of some description of another.

The share price is all over the place as usual, that's never going to change any time soon, it won't be to long before we're complaining here that the SP can't get from £18 to over £20 LOL.

Brigra your post backs up what I've just said perfectly. The Ft hasn't done enough unbiased research on Burford and our case.

Merry Xmas to everyone and especially seb Maril.

GLA

Surly a 30% increase in our share price has to be reached by around March next year and then around £18 by year end .

GLA

Thanks for that jammyC.

GLA

I'm not signed up for investors chronicle though surely this looks like a good positive read. ? Just love the headline LOL.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/12/11/shares-i-love-burford-capital/?xnpe_tifc=b.Ydx.VlOFULxFs.4FxXb9psafeWaeiWhFWlRkiAbM4NVuijauU1a9Q3EdiZakncbdiArFnDbdYX4dUNxFx8xIHdhIzT&utm_source=exponea&utm_campaign=IC%20-%20Investment%20Daily%20-%20Newsletter%20-%2025.09.23&utm_medium=email&promo_code=O1BDAILY

Argentina have a legal requirement to furnish their own legislators / congress and also any old or new President with accurate liability figures around the YPF case, Thus they have already done that , they officially concluded the expected pay out and liabilities should be set at $8.4 billion dollars , that would be after a normal haircut of around 50% of the full $16+ billion award itself, as people may remember I pointed this out at the time that Argentina itself had scored a own goal

by making this judgment call, they basically officially told the world were they thought this whole case would land, and they were correct.

So as far as Burfords cut in the settlement award goes I believe this will be how this will play out,

Full settlement award $16+ billion

Approximately 50% hair cut in the award leaving = $8.4 billion, As Argentina have already admitted to that actual liability amount.

Burfords sold off 38.75 of the Peterson claim which leaves Burford with $2.502.500 billion of that part of the settlement.

Burfords gets 73% of the Eton park part leaving them = $ 620,500 million

giving Burford a Total settlement amount $3.123.000,000 B

Take off 20% of the American corporation tax charge leaves Burford with $2.498.400.000

As of tonight Burfords valuation in America was $2.91 Billion with many analysts stating recently the YPF case is in this for

absolutely nothing . and that's still before the full earnings for 2023 have been announced,

It's difficult to know how Burford will accept their own potential settlement amount/ sell off for say $2 billion or borrow with better terms on the strength of the full settlement amount, though whatever happens here the share price should be comfortably around I'd say £18 stirling next year after a settlement is announced. I believe this is a reasonably SP figure , though this is until it's known doesn't at all reflect Burfords full 2023 earnings and share price potential.

It's definitely very difficult for analysis to properly price our shares at the minute as the pandemic has skewered Burfords normal earnings figures, 2022 has run into 2023 and 2024 , so we have to just rely on what Burford has told us it can make from its deployment money and I think that's around $2 billion over a average 3 year cycle, and yet again that will get skewered because of our potential YPF settlement money, I can live with this type of skewered LOL.

Burford isn't getting the respect from any of the markets from its top position in it's market dominant position it commands, and I guess we've muddy waters to thank for that painful wound.

I'm very confident next year will bring us to or very very close to if not past my £18 figure , with our ordinary earnings and settlement award and Javier milei in government , for me it's a near certainty Milei will pay up in some shape or form, be that any of the payment scenarios mentioned

Milei also very recently installed a new top man Horiacao Marin, and a interim middle management for YPF, though I did read that Horiacao Marin mentioned it may take around 24 months to get YPF into it's best commercial condition place to extract the best price for the YPF assets,

So this leaves me thinking that possibly Argentina might not offer or pledge to the courts / " Preska" any of the state's assets upfront, but solely rely on doing some kind of early mutually beneficial deal with burford, Preska will go for that ok if Burford is satisfied that Argentina is genuinely negotiating with burford in good faith and ending all this delaying, the reason I say this is that Argentina really needs to allow Horiacao Marin approximately 24 months of time to fully prepare YPF once again for it's privatisation. This also allows Argentina time and space to gather the extra billions of dollars from it's 2024 crop taxes, with part of that money going towards Burfords first settlement instalment, that extra money is of the utmost importance as it's a huge dollar surplus to pay the country's urgent liabilities , and that means us / Burfords first settlement money.

I would guess that Argentina might request from preska in early January another 1 to 3 month extension window to formally finalise a agreed $8.4 billion settlement plan with Burford , with the bonus or prospect of the whole YPF case getting closed down at the same time. With Burford and Argentina saving face time and more court expenses.

Milei could save himself endless headaches if he went down this type of settlement path, by not requiring any extremely difficult and awkward upfront financial asset pledges to Judge Preska's court, he gets the space time and money to save face without losing the momentum of his big election win , plus any pledges to his country's electorate, burford can wait for its first instalment as it wouldn't be a kick away from the time period of getting any YPF asset money anyway. They win we win we all win here. With Argentina seen as a good place to do business in.

Only Food for thought.

GLA

Burfords wants to be part of the solution to sorting out this huge financial dilemma for Argentina, so all options should be on the table, Burford will be extremely grateful that judge preska has brought Argentina to the negotiating table, part of preska's job is to make some judicial decisions that encourages all parties to sort things out between themselves , and freeing up the courts time and system, also preska knows were everything is potentially heading , so it's her trying to delegate everyone into their correct position and rolls to run out this legal historic pantomime to a possible early mutually agreed conclusion. Remember it's in everyone's interests for a mutually agreed settlement to this YPF case.

The commercial world is watching to see if Argentina respects American law and especially international commercial law, that should mean burford should definitely get paid in " full " in some form or another. With this current level of certainty around any negotiated payment it's absolutely astonishing that Burfords shares are so lowly valued.

GLA

If the 10th of January is the new deadline then we can expect milei to offer a substantial lump sum to Buford and pacify our quest for some of our settlement money, he will also pacify his own voters and congress with not pledging all the YPF shares away to burford, a big compromise, he wins, we win , and hopefully the full agreement payment can be negotiated at or around the same time period, preska will be happy to accommodate all this if burfords happy to proceed in this way,

the new era of Javier Milei's presidency should allow preska to give milei some room to manoeuvre , milei's choices are severely limited here to what I've mentioned above, it's the most logical sensible route to take, any less of a offer probably wouldn't swing Burfords signature to any financial settlement document.

The other option would be to just give everything that preska's asked for, and that's very unlikely to happen, so we're !eff with a compromise that benefits both parties, that's what normally swings people into signing on the dotted line.

Lump sum here weeee come, big settlement announcement around the January 10th or very positive friendly negotiations to conclude our big Lump sum pledge agreed by Argentina , burford and of course Judge Loretta Preska . There will be no years and years of endless waiting to get our large Lump sum. The remaining large settlement amount of money could come in any shape or form. Though Burford will be genuinely flexible here as they wish to be part of the solution and not the problem. So that's how I see this playing out, as I've always said, Burford is continuously proving itself to be a brilliant fantastic investment . 2024 will be Burfords year.

GLA

Https://buenosairesherald.com/business/consultants-forecast-agricultural-exports-will-grow-over-us13-bn-in-2024

GLA

Argentina looks like it's in the clear regarding it's much needed dollar earnings from its crops for next year, see link below, the rains have come spot on time to produce a decent crop other than to be around 5% less than a good year, so these dollar earnings can bolster the strength of Javierq milei 's administration to pay the IMF and also to pay Burford a lump sum on our settlement award with the balance in a longer-term settlement arrangement.

Milei is speaking to all the right people in Washington to carry out all his manifesto plans, I can easily see America getting behind Argentina, though only because it's truly in America's very best interest to do so, Joe biden was away at former first lady's funeral and couldn't meet milei. But his administration did meet Milei.

Preska really has put Argentina against the wall with her latest declaration , with burford now in a good negotiating position regarding how quickly the appeal will proceed.

The greatest certainty burford has to being paid is Milei's need to align Argentina to the American system and his dollarization agenda , he can only achieve his aims for Argentina if Burford gets paid from the American courts judgement, there's no real way around this big financial hurdle, because they are all essentially part of the same package. No negotiated burford payment , no dollarization .

I'm genuinely 100% positive Burford will get around $8.4 billion dollars , that normally plays out with a Lump sum and the rest over a number of years, that allows Argentina time to recover it's own crop and natural minerals based earnings in the coming year and beyond, that should put Argentina in a much better position to carry out it's manifesto pledges.

Because of Argentina's dolllar earnings next year milei should be able to steer a mutually beneficial and positive course through our settlement award and his own countries financial needs.

Burfords shares could right now at least double in value with just one simple statement from Javier Milei's mouth. And that is what he said in a televised interview before he was president , after being asked about burfords $16 billion court win , he said in Spanish, I quite " it has to be paid," this was brilliantly spotted by Sebastian maril in one of his post as in was a very long interview. Milei said it, milei Needs it done to carry out all his other pledges to his electorate, what more do investors need to be convinced that Burfords shares will at least double in the coming year.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/milei-holds-first-meeting-with-biden-administration-in-washington.phtml

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/argentina-asks-for-more-time-for-ypf-case.phtml

GLA.

Wait,

GLA.