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The actual settlement award amount ? This is what I'm going on and why,

Argentina themselves penceled in the $8.4 billion dollars for their own accounting liabilities to their own people and legislators, they are are not lying here, and that is after their own expected full award amount is reduced by the normal 50% early reduction, from the original $16.8 billion dollar award , my point being is that Argentina and their own lawyers themselves have studied ever part of this case and by their own obligatory financial admissions they have told us the true actual amount of damages to be paid, so that's why I'm essentially personally bypassing this nearing award amount trial, because if anybody should know this elusive award amount figure then surely it should be Argentina themselves, and by their own freely arrived at legally bound compulsory admission. it's about the only honest thing that Argentina has done during this whole legal process. and because they had to comply with there own legal requirements and accounting processes.

DYOR, GLA

The problem I have with the full paying of any surety Bond is that Argentina would find it close to impossible or extremely difficult to post a bond worth $16+ billion dollars of a award right now or even at any future or past time period, even a $8 billion dollar surety Bond would have them struggling right now, so this is why it could work in Burfords favour, because Argentina can't afford paying $16+ billion let alone $8+ billion, so this financial conundrum might only be solved by coming to a early this year agreement with Burford around a staged multi year agreed settlement plan, if Argentina don't want this, then they may have to find the full surety Bond money right away anyway , Argentina's only get out of jail card may be that it can only ask the American government for some type of surety Bond dispensation from the USA courts, such is the massive amount of this potential surety bond, failing that then Argentina really has to seriously negotiate this right now in the next few months and avoid finding the billions in surety Bond money right now, so that seems their very difficult choice right now, if I where them my choice would be just paying a reasonable lump sum now and then a staged payments plan , with Burford probably choosing to sell this arrangement for a reduced price to 3rd parties as Burford themselves can make this money work hard and pay us over those years and offsetting the loss from selling the full award in the first place. that could work for us and I imagine work for Argentina.

Just my thoughts around the potential options here.

DYOR, GLA.

That was very informative renegade , thank you for that information, it really helps in determining a lot of the surety Bond issues, so essentially the Argentine side might be hit with a $16 billion+ dollar surety Bond + upfront interest for the appeal year's, that's music to my ears, somehow I just can't see the surety Bond going anywhere near that level of even half that level, though what would I know other than what your link states, I'm assuming that may ordinarily relate to ordinary big awards and maybe not the billion dollar super awards, a long time ago I tried asking Google for some answers around surety Bond amounts and got nothing decent or reliable to go on, but your link renegade has given me heart to think that it might still be a multi billion dollar surety Bond that has to be posted, so thank you again for that renegade. I'm really looking forward to finding out the size of our surety Bond amount, because who knows if it's sky high as in $16 billion + dollars, then who knows maybe just maybe Argentina might even consider doing Burford a early agreed settlement offer amount, in as much as Burford would probably only sell all or part of the award to 3rd parties anyway. So they'd be doing us a favour and we'd be doing them a favour, because the large surety Bond money would have to be Posted anyway.

This is all just food for thought, GLA, and good night everyone.

GLA

With the obvious huge size of a our award TWT it's difficult to find any comparisons to go on, I was just thinking that maybe when the award get into the billion dollar category then maybe there is some kind of markdown , IE, if the award was say $1 billion dollars then the surety Bond might be say $150 million dollars and if the award was say $2 billion dollars then the surety Bond might be say $250 million dollars instead of $300 million dollars, if you see what I mean, there might be a increasing reduction as the size of the award goes up, or maybe not, I've nothing to go on, so if anyone has anything to go on then please enlighten us here, and that includes that brilliant journalist MR Sebastian Maril.

GLA

Sorry about the typo mistakes, this keyboard changes words after I've went past them, embarrassing or what.

GLA

Bluewiley it's a interesting question, can Burford seize the Argentinean government stake in YPF, I suspect no, or someone somewhere by now would have said the could, I actually thought that this is a interesting question , Argentina essentially steals your YPF shares and calls it a re-nationalization without any compensation, with the now legal owner / Burford seemingly not even able to take those YPF shares back again to sell on the open market and still be able to ask Argentina for the rest of the award amount, but Burford seemingly can seize a Argentine owned war ship or other financial interest from around the world, through mainly in America, but we seemingly can't get our own YPF shares back again, it seems ridiculous at best and commercially disgraceful at worst, I'm confident that Burford already has a well researched plan to seize certain assets up should Argentina have any reluctance to pay out on this soon to be historic settlement amount,

This soon to be announced settlement amount will certainly give the Argentine government a massive embarrassing problem to sort out, if they take away then they must pay it back again, it's that simple, the poor people of that country are paying for a really bad governing past administration, and there's no need to it,

As I've said before my eye's are on the hopefully big surety Bond , wouldn't you think that J. Preska would make this bond proportionate to the massive size of the settlement award, though because of the size of the award then Preska may have to scale it back to accommodate the Argentine position of having very little dollar current reserves , I'm hoping it's at least $500 million dollars, or would it be more like $250 million dollars, I haven't a clue here to be honest.

But one thing I have clue about is that Burfords definitely in the money here big time, how and when we get paid out is another interesting question. Burfords team have done a truly fantastic job to get this incredibly difficult complex case to this winning stage of litigation, so collecting the winnings should be a walk in the park for their own settlement collection staff. Remember burford hired mercenaries to go aboard that Rusand seize that billionaires super yacht to collect a UK court award,

I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Burford have already decided on how much of the award percentage wise they are potentially selling to 3rd parties. These shares will fly on any more good news. £20+ no problem .

Please DYOR, GLA.

I actually forgot about the ex - dividend date, thanks for that renegade.LOL

GLA.

Yes Preska is quite clear that her judgment was arrived at on a solid sound overall and overarching full legal basis.

So it's just a matter of allowing Argentina and the court to arrive at the precise award amount, plus allowing Argentina their legal right to a formal appeals process application.

A big thanks to Sebastian Maril , TWT , renegade here,

A surprising fall in our shares again, though the whole market is wobbly because of the fear around the American borrowing ceiling, and a American payments default, it's actually a appalling situation to put the world's financial markets into, playing chicken with interest rates and ordinary peoples lives, there should be legislation to stop these types of things happening and to allow any elected government to govern freely and properly.

It does seem more likely now of a soft world recession with a increasing of Burfords in take of case loads and accompanying higher profits.

Please DYOR, GLA.

I think that Burford should monitor the overall running cost as much as humanly possible, I remember when the ordinary running cost were around $90 million dollars and very quickly and without any noticeable reason the funny cost were up to $150 m dollars per year, I remember thinking how did that jump so much, I just assumed Burford hired loads of more lawyers and beefed up it's asset recovery side of the business, I'm just accepting that what they needed they've simple got the company , and that cost plenty of money, also a lot of people including lawyer's have been poached by rivals and that in itself also increases the wage levels , so that May factor into the extra overall cost , also Burfords bought plenty of shares before they jumped well above the £6 level, that was a smart move by the company to save money on the employee remuneration plan, I guess overall you have to invest in the business to oil the machinery in the business to. Bring in hundreds of millions worth of business and accompanying profits. With Bogart and molot owning such substantial amounts of our shares then I'm sure they have the financial incentive to keep cost down to a reasonable level. Though cost are bound to go up as Burford grows it business model around the world, India is starting to embrace litigation funding now , so maybe that huge population and country could be another big opportunity here. From what I'm seeing is that Burford has its hands full with just the American side of the business , so there still is a massive potential for more growth from many other countries . So our profits in my opinion have a very long way to climb in the coming years, so who knows maybe we'll get to £100 share price in ten or more years time. That actually wouldn't surprise me at all now. Though I do want to see a even now dynamic push to grow the who!e business and especially see the company streamline it's intake of borrowing requirements so that it's easy to see just one source of financing and more Burford only deployment money going in, and Burford only profit coming out. The company is very complicated for ordinary investors to understand, so any type of streamlining or simplification would be really helpful here, I can see the company is trying to get more Burford only deployments, though I'm sure we just all want 100% of everything to come from us and come back to our own shareholders as huge earnings and profits. We will get there ok, this is a fantastic investment and a life long holding for me.

Please DYOR, GLA

Well strangely enough I picked up one thousand shares yesterday at £10.51 , I've no idea what they are going to do on a daily or weekly basis, though that surprising fall yesterday without any negative news seemed well over done , those shorters along with market players might have been at their game yesterday, or it was simply a overdue normal profit taking occurrence, or we may just never know, I wasn't planning to buy yesterday, though these dips can bring out the immediate buying opportunity instincts in people like myself.

GLA.

Investors have their choice here, to invest in a company that only exist to return a average compounding growth per year of around 20 % to mostly over 25% , with this getting massively enhanced by any potential big pay out in the YPF case, this is exactly what most investors want, it's a kin to putting your money into the bank and getting 25% added to your money every year or most years, the whole point in Burfords existence is to carry out this exact business plan, and it's working fantastically bar the pandemic delays, any investment in Burford is exactly what Warren Buffett himself ask for from all his financial deployments, burford only invest when the average outcome indicates that $1 dollar will come back to Burfords as $1.30c per year, this is a fantastic compounding growth stock, and soon or later the markets should give Burfords a decent share premium as it's years ahead of any competitor, and also having real cutting edge all round advantage to any competitor, with a very close relationship with the top 100 law firms, this also is exactly what Warren Buffett wants from his best investments, so surly this year we can see Burfords share price truly reflect all these excellent financial investing metrics. The MM and shorters will do their short term stuff here , though Stick with burford for brilliant compounding earnings growth year after year here, long term I'm very excited what Burford is going to return to all investors. The analysis were stating that Burfords shares are worth $16 dollars now without any YPF input, though I strongly believe that the full 2023 earnings should beat most of these conservative estimates and share price estimates. This is going to be one truly fantastic turning point year for Burford and it's investors. At least £20+ minimum this time next year.

Please DYOR. GLA.

Https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/what-makes-burford-capital-limited-bur-an-excellent-long-term-investment-1153663/

I've bought in here at 34p and then because of share dealing delays and ended up topped up at a overall average price of 40p 20000 shares in total.

I didn't know what these shares will do before delisting ,through there's already a clear excellent profit ,

My thinking is that I'm owning a share that's worth more than 10 Times what I bought them for, and backed up by the obvious excellent growing earnings that's coming in, and with a very possible very large dividend payout history.

From here the dividend is the key to staying in here, with the fallback being it's biggest shareholder will sell the company or buy it all out for himself at the market average buyout price, it's biggest shareholder will have to ask a ordinary respectable bank to determine a fair price for the shares and buy the shares accordingly at that determined price, now that could easily be £3.50p or over £5 or more according to past online articles and reports, so it's seems to me a good gamble on the sum of the parts and risk, also the strong possibility of getting all your money back or even 10 Times your Moneyback so I'm staying in to see what happens here. Excellent opportunity in my estimation.

Please DYOR, never buy or sell on anyone's positive or negative forum post. GLA

Also HFwizard you can listen to the full conference call again, it's held for Burfords investors here below.

https://www.investis-live.com/burfordcapital/644b751569b6910d00728042/osld

Gla

Yes the market was overall impressed with the results, full year 2022 earnings exceeded analyst expectations by 11% though the EPS did lag behind or missed analyst estimates by 30% , the share price indicates the market is substantially and overall very impressed with the current and future figures, any earnings that look missing are simply delayed and coming through most likely this year or essentially in the next financial reporting period / june, revenue is forecast to grow 33% per annum in the next two years, and that's without any input from the YPF case, I personally see the earnings smash those analyst forecast by a very large percentage. Though mainly because of the pent up case load coming through this year,

The share price looks quite strong here bar the normal driving the shares up and down brigade. I'm extremely happy with everything so far, that analyst presentation and investors call in was really positive and without any fake hype, what they were telling us was factual information around the expected case load with 2023 looking like the turn around year for our case loads, and translating into the expected much higher earnings that they knew would come through after the court backlogs cleared, though I could of done without the echoey sounds in that conference call, some or a lot of the conference call technical metrics would confuse and lose most people or investors,

Overall the conference call left me feeling very enthusiastic about Burford as the biggest earner and funder in the world, also that Bogart sees no threats to its market dominance, and he's even genuinely enthusiastic for new funder entrants to push this trillion dollar industry out even further, though I'm sure they themselves know they must hold their multi year lead over any other funding competitors.

I also see a steady share price increase this year and even beyond my £20+ share price prediction for this year. Believe me It's not wishful thinking because the evidence is all there for anyone to see in Burfords own earnings modelling predictions. and this is backed up by the current soon to be this year realised case loads.

The YPF case is a multi billion dollar win for Burford, and that's from Chris Bogarts own mouth yesterday, how this plays out is anyone's guess here, the trial court judgement is immediately enforceable unless a surety bond is posted by Argentina

or Argentina gets a " stay " from preskas court. there's alsorts of other twist and turns here ,though it's just one big court wasting stalling tactic, in the end as Bogart states a multi billion dollar award has been won by Burford. With a sovereign Argentine state having to pay this judgment .

I'm extremely happy with the full trajectory of Burfords fortunes, also again a big thanks to Sebastian Maril and his excellent following of this ypf case and it's newsflow.

Please DYOR, GLA

I'm perplexed here, it was always my understanding that Argentina had to post a potentially large surety Bond if they wanted to appear the courts verdict, and the reason that no surety Bond has not been applied yet r is because judge preska has not been able to factually determine the date from which the award should run from , so Argentina is using this window of opportunity to try to appeal to preska that their Argentine court award settlement protocols should be followed, this their own judges intervention, thus the current wait to see what the Argentine judge says and then what preska takes from all that, on the face of it and where we are now preska thinks it's a $16 billion dollar award, as she's simply taking that from the YPF rule book or shareholders contract ,in as much as if Argentina 're nationalises YPF ,then the shareholder contract plainly states what is to be paid out to it's own shareholders.

So either way Burford wins here, no bond equals burford being free to seize Argentine assets from around the world.

With a bond then part thereof we have hard cash to collect in any surety bond, though unable to collect before any appeal is heard and won and finalised, so preska has to shortly freely determine the award size or amount, and surely that's when she is free to apply the surety Bond amount if Argentina then wants to appeal, everyone is saying they will always appeal everything, so it's the actual size of that bond that potentially determines just how much we can potentially bank in this YPF case, everything else is wishful thinking and years away bar burford selling this case award to 3rd parties and collecting on this case even this year, and that's a strong possibility considering that is what Burford normally likes to do with these big complex types of cases. Bank it now and let someone else wait for the actual award.

Please feel free to correct me if anything isn't or looking correct here, no offence taken at all. It's just what I thought was correct. It maybe wrong ?

Please DYOR GLA

The expected extra carrying value in our past accounting and assets values shouldn't really add to the share price other than to create a sense of burford being absolutely right and essentially badly wronged by the muddy waters affair,

I think the market and investors are just looking at the big YPF case win and the potential to collect any award. and then to Burfords actual ordinary earnings this year , I've no doubts for my expectations that this year will be the best year on record due to the pent up pandemic case load.

The legal world should be or is back to normal trading with a expected increase in litigation work coming from a soft ?

recession . this should be great news for funders.

My eyes are on the actual size of the YPF case surety Bond that Preska places on this case, as in part thereof then that's Burfords hard cash from this case that's on the table, this should enthuse and wet the market and investors appetite for Burfords shares,

The actual current last minute tactics of the Argentine lawyers is somwhat suspicious to me, to ask a female Argentine commercial judge to give evidence in person on a appeal stinks of desperation or some kind or legal plot by the Argentine side to pull a legal political stunt to publicly have this whole case decided by the USA and Argentine courts, if a Argentine commercial judge advises the USA courts that they are wrong ,then is it a stunt for Argentina to say we need more time to consider all the evidence in both jurisdictions, as their own judge is saying preska is wrong. It doesn't matter if Argentina is wrong, they are only possibly after another stalling of this case because of their own judges intervention, why not just have a video conferencing for this Argentine judge, why would she travel 6000 miles to say something in person when she could write everything down on paper or speak on a video call, all very suspicious, I could obviously be totally wrong here, when you talking $16 billion dollars then people will do anything to avoid paying out, that's why the surety Bond money is money in the bank for Burfords shareholders.

For me this YPF case is a unbelievable bonus for Burford,though the future normal earnings of over $600 million dollars per year is what I'm here for, when that starts to compound year after year then the shares should easily fly past £20+ and I do mean easily, yes exciting times ahead, yes the shares will go up and down though eventually well over £20+ I've no doubt whatsoever here. This year is going to be fantastic with or without any YPF money.

Please DYOR. GLA

Yes of course the surety Bond is paid to the court if they want to appeal the courts decision against Argentina, though that large lodged amount of surety Bond money is essentially Burfords unless Argentina overturns the courts decision, and thats extremely unlikely to ever happen here, so Burford can then if it wants to sell off this year part or all of the settlement award with the surety Bond left as a somewhat hopefully large guarantee to any upfront payment from a 3rd party who buys any part of the settlement award from us, so that's what I mean by cashing in on this big case this year and not waiting years on the appeals process, the institutions that buy this settlement award will make good money ok, also Burford can quickly invest this upfront money into new litigation cases and bringing in far more money and profit than they would have done if they just held it all intact without selling it, Burford can make most of that early sold off award back by going down this route, remember it sold off that Argentine airlines case and dispute from $320 million dollars for a net of $ 94 million , and that money has worked incredibly hard and has by now paid many times that original amount, and yet the buyers of that award are still pushing ahead to claim the original $320 million dollars, they should get it ok, they just have to wait a bit longer, so that's the template that Burford uses in these types of situations, so we may expect this same proven route to a early profit from our Argentine case today.

It's only my thoughts on the subject , please DYOR, GLA

GLA

Pennylots Burford can certainly put the squeeze on Argentinean assets around the world ok, though I'm sure most people can understand that squeezing $16+ billion dollars of a settlement award from Argentina's assets is a very big ask from even burford, those massive assets are just not out there to squeeze, though I'm quite sure Burford can squeeze many hundreds of millions of dollars of Argentine assets from somewhere, and also get the big surety Bond money,

The best course of action for Burford to take would be to be thankful that they can get any surety Bond money and then respectfully negotiate a reasonable discounted settlement amount with Argentina's government , the government themselves see this to be $8.4 billion, and that for me seems fair and reasonable, be that instantly paid or rolled out over many years, I see no justifiable reason for Argentina not to just pay sovereign bonds, as all they have to worry about is servicing the yearly interest payments on those bonds, our money is very little compared to Argentina's national debts, Burford sells these bonds instantly and Burford and us are completely clear of this Argentine big case, the money is in the bank and no concerns around Argentina's economic woes ever again, how this actually plays out is anyone's guess here,
Though for Argentina isn't it better to have a 50% discounted adverse judgement against you on a $16 billion dollars award just paid , than having a that judgement just sit there unpaid and chased up on for numerous years causing all sorts of problems for the Argentine state. It's going to be a fantastic year for us and Burfords coffers here, probably the best ever.

Please DYOR, GLA

Here is the deal with the one monetary fund MrMarroc, America and the IMF will use its financial muscle and influence to make sure Argentina does not get sucked in to China 's financial clutches, as we've seen that happen before and all around the world and especially the nations that are in financial trouble, that was the purpose of Argentina's visit with Joe Biden just a few months ago, though that wasn't put out officially like that, trust me ,it was about that very thing,

So the IMF can relax a little more now and get that money out much quicker to Argentina now or very soon, yes the normal things will be said around new and better payment plans etc, but essentially not much has changed with Argentina's fortunes, it's on its back so as to speak, plus Argentina is working out a payment plan with Brazil around each other's commodities , and to avoid using their own dollar reserves, to essentially keep more dollars to pay Americans and others,

So Argentina should have more money quite soon to pay for its international borrowings payments and multiple types of bonds etc, now seeing they have more money now then they may or may not have more room to issue new sovereign bonds to pay for any legal liabilities / Burford and all the other court lead settlement awards against the Argentine state, if Argentina wishes to trade with America or any other country then it must respect other countries court systems and namely American courts , as America is it's biggest trading partner, and also America is helping Argentina to get its hands on this IMF money much quicker now,

So I see Argentina paying its surety Bond money very soon and Burford negotiating a reasonable settlement award with Argentine sovereign bonds being the financial vehicle here used, if it's paid over a long period, then Buford will sell most if not all of the award off to 3rd parties/ with very ready and waiting institutions to buy those sovereign bonds, and even as soon as this year.

GLA, please DYOR