RE: SEC approved fair value model24 Apr 2023 10:42
Thanks for that TWT.
I still don't believe that most if not all of these share tipsters have got Burfords future earnings correct / especially " this " year's earnings right !!! . Burfords own business model indicated earnings of over well over $600 million dollars this year and per year without any input from the YPF CASE, and that was without the current coming pent up case loads getting delivered this year, we could easily add on another $300 million or more this year, taking our earnings to $900 million dollars before running cost of around $150 million are taken out, that would work out at $ 3,42c or £2.75p Stirling in earnings this year, though our share price shouldn't really reflect this amount as possibly $300 million of that amount is from our pent up case load and not repeatable in the following years, though it should overall cause or create in general a great enthusiasm for Burfords shares,
The YPF case, I'm hoping that Argentina is correct in their analysis of their own potential pay out of $8.4 billion dollars to burford, surely they should be the one's who should actually know best , as they are the ones who have to officially inform their own parliament and public alike, I'm hoping judge Preska will deliver a very substantial surety appeal Bond here, even in the billion dollar range, with a potentially award of over $16 billion dollars, surly a billion dollar bond would be needed here to ensure Argentina won't abuse the potential lengthy appeals process,
Now I think if Argentina can be made to post such a bond then it's a kind of insurance policy for Burford to then go off and start negotiating a full or partial sell off of the settlement award to 33rd parties , they don't have to wait on the lengthy appeals process of 1 to 3 years. The reason I now believe they will mostly cash in now is that it they can even get their hands on even $1 billion dollars then getting that used in litigation cases ASP can bring back another $300 million dollars or more from that early settlement money, Burford can make it pay and work much better than the banks or institutions that would pay us now, and that could easily happen this year if a big bond is posted by Argentina, a really big bond is essentially a insurance policy for anyone to pay Burford a upfront payment on our settlement award, and that could potentially could easily come as soon as this year, that would send Burfords earnings obviously massively higher here. So most of these share tipsters estimates could be massively well out here in so many ways, the potential here could very easily play out with my reasonable thinking or estimates , if Argentina is made to pay a large appeals bond , then expect my
theory to play out like this at some level, Burford will move fast here, whatever way this gets cut then Burfords shares should be substantially higher here.
Also a big thanks to Sebastian Maril for all his excellent Twitter postings.
P