Shadow litigation ? It's very possible that judge preska has already reached her YPF judgement, with Burford and Argentina
asking Preska for complete secrecy and confidentiality around the judgment itself, giving burford and especially Argentina time to negotiate a private and out of the glare of the media a fair settlement amount . Also with Argentina ready to post a $ 1billion dollar bond for the appeal should Argentina not get the settlement deal it wants.
Judge preska is still within her court time limits for such a very important multi billion dollar case, also she effectively has no real time limits to allow the two parties to come to a mutually agreed settlement amount, and maybe/ only possibly that's why we are actually waiting right now on news from our YPF case .?
Only food for thought.
GLA
Yes renegade I completely agree ,we can't post Sebastian marils tweet with a potential $8.4 billion dollars of a award enough here LOL, the Argentine state would not have acknowledge and factored in such a huge potential payout if their lawyers thought the YPF case and no merit, their lawyers have already told them they will mostly likely loose,
And for the Argentine state to get ready to negotiate the settlement downwards, and to do that the Argentine state would be better to post a $1 billion appeal bond to dangle in front of our eyes to smell the money so as to speak, and then them saying it's here to just bank what we offer you in bonds, if you say yes to say $6.5 billion we will get it to you very quickly and you don't have to wait another few years of maybe several nasty politically charged appeals, and no money in your coffers, just more expensive outlays , Now what do you say Burford ,and remember you only paid $15 million for the case and we Will pay all your court cost as expected which runs into tens of millions,
All that might be off a little but I'd be confident the Argentine state will try something along those lines, carrot and stick job,
So if Argentina appeals it would only be a tactical move to give them time and space to allow burford to think over the cash in your hands now offer, or wait another few years. we all know cash in your hands now would probably win out here,
that's why these negotiating settlement advisers or lawyers get involved as they know all the tricks in the trade to get us a fantastic deal, can't wait, no matter what happens Burfords shares will fly this year.
GLA
In my last post that’s why I stated $8.4 billion, that’s because I was quoting that same amount in Sebastian marils tweet, Sebastian marils tweet was posted here at that time to bring it to everyone’s attention, I thought everyone already knew about that Argentina $8.4 billion provision. It’s also great to bring that tweet to everyone’s attention again.
GLA
If Argentina appeal then a proportional amount of the award would be posted to the court and that proportional amount would be determined by judge preska. A $1 billion bond seems a fair enough amount considering the potential award could be , say $17 billion with a expected amount of negotiated settlement coming down to $8.4 billion , I say that as Argentina itself has pencilled in their potential liability to the YPF case of possibly paying out $8.4 billion. to burford.
Anything can happen , I'm just glad I'm holding Burfords shares and not a handful of pesos.
GLA,
That is a very strong possibility timing wise, Argentina posting a $1 billion bond and then appeals the YPF ruling against them , giving Argentina more time and leverage regarding the actual eventual settlement amount, in other words they say to us take this offer of $5 billion dollars instead of a reasonable expected $8.4 billion or we can stretch this lawsuit out for another few years, and with all the political risk that involves, it's actually a very good bartering tactic for Argentina's lawyers. Sebastian maril could very well be on the money with that excellent twitter post. Thank you sir.
GLA
Yes this year one way or another is going to be a brilliant financially rewarding year for Burfords shareholders, I won't be surprised to a share price of between £14 to well over £21+ a share here,
Judge preska obviously won't be hurried by anyone to reach a fair judgement on our YPF case , I can completely understand the need to be absolutely thorough as it's going to cost Argentina $billions in compensation, as they themselves have even factored in a potential $8.4 billion pay out in this case to burford, they even recognise that error of the past administrations mistakes and they are also duty bound to legally defend that very expensive mistake, I'm quite sure their feed back from their own lawyers would have prompted them to make a financial provision in there own accounts for $8,4 billion of a payout, anything less will be a bonus for the Argentine state, Burford can't financially loose from this case as we all know they've already sold 40% of the case to 3rd parties giving them a win either way.
It could still be months before judge Preska gives the Argentine state a financial headache, bad decisions cause bad legal outcomes for Argentina's coffers, I'm just glad I'm behind Burfords side of the fence on this case.
A big thank you again to Sebastian marils and his close following of YPF case,
Also happy New year to TWT and every poster/ shareholders on here, ******HAPPY NEW YEAR**********
Youonly totally agree I was wondering about the increasing wage pressures in Burfords now as everyone seems to want more money and they are getting it, it's not about just matching inflation, companies are offering much higher wages to just poach or get staff, I would expect burford will pay more now , but now much more ?? Though we'll pay them out of our YPF case money. Burfords growing and so will our overheads .
GLA
Mrmarroc you may be right anyone who can escape death from a gun jaming inches from her head must have 9 lives , and prisons nothing after that incredible escape, yes that 70 year rule is another life of her 9 lives. If I were her I'd emigrate while she can or after her appeals and aged 70 , unbelievable the laws in Argentina, no wonder the inflation is near 100%
Just give us our money and we'll be gone ,
GLA
I totally agree Renegade, it shows up what type of regime she run and ruled over, with the present one getting closer to America to help them recover tax loopholes for Argentina's tax authorities.
I'm glad she's as good as finished, though she still has some ex presidents privileges to keep her out of prison for a while/ appeals. This should really show up the injustices to the YPF shareholders who lost there money/ now burford,
We will collect ok when Judge Preska gives us our winning judgement.
GLA
34 days to Xmas or a possible YPF summary motion result, with the Xmas rush and employees festivities and holdbacks , yes we could be looking at a later summary motion judgement ok. It would be nice before Xmas though LOL.
Yuri.F I guess you don't believe in father Christmas then . LOL
It often surprises me that all those presentations are not filmed professionally or equally filmed on a excellent iphone with impressive professional looking qualities and then posted on Burfords website or simply YouTube , Most of us here have watched some of Burfords presentations on youtube, it seems like a missed opportunity in my opinion, and especially if it's as easily and cheaply done with a modern Hi spec iphone, why not utilise a potentially excellent presentation and shown to a greater number of people from around the world and save them from unnecessarily traveling to any given venue in any part of the world.
Also It does look like we might get Judge Preska's verdict on our YPF case in December if Sebastian marils tweet is correct.
6 months of average waiting with 7 summary judgement motions , preska took our summary judgement request in June 2022 , a big thank you to Sebastian maril for giving us all that excellent information in his Twitter account. Invaluable sir.
It's going to be a fantastic Xmas period either before or shortly afterwards Xmas , GLA
I find it astonishing that Burfords share price isn't already north of £10 , and even after completely factoring out the YPF case in it's entirety, next year will be a complex set of results, considering we should benefit from most of the pent up covit19 case earnings, the earnings should be substantially higher than a ordinary average years earnings, so I'm unsure how the market will factor this into our share price, that said I believe the share price should still be well of the £10 Mark without the YPF earnings and case win, it's ridiculous to think the Argentine government could possibly be let away with not compensating any foreign countries share holders for a effectively a share grab without a full monetary compensation for that Re-nationalization, no country should allow that to happen,
It would be great to see this positively resolved by judge Preska before Xmas as it's a long time to leave everyone on tenderhooks , though I do understand Judge Preska has to be diligent at delivering one of the biggest and most important judgements of her entire life, and also with worldwide implications for any foreign sovereign government to replicate this corporate act of smash and grab shareholders money, it's simply outrageous at any level of fairness and to corporations or ordinary shareholders.
If Judge Preska gets this just right then she really will have to get her very substantial due diligence and home work done to perfection, and leave no room for complaints or appeals with any merit to her landmark judgement, I believe she has no justifiable reason to not insist on compensation for the wrong doings of the Argentine state in this case, I believe Judge Preska has little or no choice whatsoever but to fully compensate the injured party here / now/ Burford ,
Argentina themselves by their own admission have already pencilled into there own financial liabilities of over $8 billion dollars of a potential pay out in this YPF case, they wouldn't do that if they thought this case was without merit, they know this case is a most likely looser for themselves, that $8 billion is what they think they will most likely have to pay to burford
, with anything less being a bonus for themselves, this case is a winner all day long for Burfords shareholders and the Argentine state knows it, will we conclude it before Xmas or after Xmas, that's the only question I'm asking myself right now, to be fair to Judge Preska she has to take all the time in the world to leave no room for her winning judgement for burford, the longer it takes the more secure her final judgement will be in my experience, and that possibly might even be after Xmas, good things are worth waiting on,
That report below I felt was reasonable until it says a 5 year term share price target, if it had said 1 to 3 years ,that would be nearer my own personal price target, Though he was putting it as a conservative price target, in 5 years a $40
G
Another excellent find youonly, £36 will do me nicely , isn't that around my top price to achieve all them years ago and baulked at by some LOL.
TWT I couldn't have put it better myself in your post, many thanks guy's , onwards ad upwards, no telling how long Judge Preska will take, though she must have most of her and summing up done and everything just going onto paper.
GLA
21 hours ago Sebastian maril suggested Burford should negotiate with Argentina a ten year payments settlement with Burford , I totally agree bar a large fully upfront settlement offer, I also suggested this several times in the past, " WHY, " because it gets Argentina off the hook regarding having to tell it's long suffering people they will have to suffer even more until they pay out on another multi billion dollar settlement court case , if Burford was paid say $800 million in sovereign bonds per year over ten years , just think about the tax saving implications for this spread out over a decade, the tax savings would be huge , in actual fact Argentina would also be saving in sovereign bond interest payments and effectively robbing the tax from USA system, and of course all perfectly legal and above board. Burford get hopefully a reliable steady tens years of a steady income stream and Argentina gets the voters off their backs and a more manageable payments plan. Now that might do the trick for Burford, and then of course Burford could either borrow more cheaply on the strength of this set-up or just sell this partly off or the whole set-up off to another 3rd party at another negotiated lower amount or amounts, whatever way this deal gets eventually cut I'm sure Burfords share price will jump substantially from today's lows.
Sebastian maril is spot on with his thinking around settlement options, it's actually my preferred option bar just getting $8 billion upfront, the tax advantages would be very significant indeed, on a $8 billion settlement award the USA would instantly take over $560 million dollars alone at around it's new York rate of just over 7% + companies tax rate. Now spread this out over ten years and Burford can easily write off its normal average loss making cases to exactly time those losses when it gets its money from Argentina ,to better take advantage of the USA tax system. It could be a win win for Burford and dare I say it Argentina. It really could work extremely well for both parties bar any revolutions in Argentina. and Burford which likes to minimise its risk will factor that into a hold or partly sell off plan. " partly sell off plan I guess"
All food for thought , GLA
If the settlement award was for say $300 million then the posting of a bond could also be around the same figures as for a massive multi billion dollar award. As long as it covers our legal fees, don’t get me wrong I think a huge bond should be posted to be in line with the actual award. Sadly I don’t believe it works that way . If a bond was the same as the award then you would probably find the case looser / Argentina less likely to appeal, and then genuinely start negotiations around the settlements.
GLA
It does look like Argentina will kick this down the road after a clear Burford win, because it's not going to make much difference to Argentina if it's a $14 or $19 billion dollar judgement, why ? Because they ultimately will only be able to pay out X amount of billions to burford , say $6 to $8 billion in the actual settlement amount, their Senate won't struggle to pass anything higher if even that amount , as their own voter's would turn into a Lynch Mob, so they must be saying to themselves when burford win here ,then we'll just appeal and stretch this case down the road for another couple of years and past the Argentine elections and also post a appeal Bond for in around d $50 or $ 100 million into Judge Prekas office, , that seems like a electoral and a financially sensible position for them to take.
Though our soon to be announced multi billion dollar potential judgement amount would still bring us instant and substantial gains to our share price right now , as the market will know they were going to probably appeal this judgement anyway,
This judgement is so important to protect investors in America and from around the world, and the legal investigations and checks needed from multiple jurisdictions might take considerably more time than we had planned for here, American law and basic common sense to protect investors and also commercial companies under international laws should ultimately triumph here, though a timeline for Judge Preskas judgement might take considerably more time, I honestly don't know. It's simple a guessing game around this subject.
I really can't wait to see Burford fulfil its potential earnings from it's massive amounts of money invested in the thousands of cases it's invested in. One way or another Burfords shares will soar this year and if not definitely 100% next year.
GLA
Yuri you or I don't know for sure what it would cost to take a substantial holding in burford, these things can be executed very quickly and below the radar of overall market , yes they will all know soon enough, maybe even in 15 minutes or so, though a massive amount of Burfords share options can be bought in just seconds from multiple parties acting for the Argentine state, but then again is that insider trading, maybe , I down know for sure. Now if Argentina is not aware of the actual judgement then maybe Argentina is free to buy up millions of Burfords share options. I know it's all immaterial as Argentina wouldn't be that clever to carry out a smart move like that, after all look where they're at now LOL.
The Burford share price is totally meaningless right now considering the massive opportunity on two fronts, our YPF case
and separately our huge future earnings next year, nearly all the legal companies are reporting business as usual and a increase in business during this downturn, the likes of DWF have recently told their shareholders when times get tough , Lawyers have a knack of coming out on top, they reassured investors at it's recent annual general meeting that trading is still in line with expectations, and that the successful implementation of a new global operating model last year is fuelling it's strong performance.
Business for Burford will also be on the up from now onwards bar any need for substantial amounts of money at the correct borrowing rates, though that should be be a problem. I'm happy about Burfords future prospects ,we just need our share price to reflect Burfords fantastic and nearly guaranteed future earnings from it's $6 billion of invested money and case loads. "Only a matter of time ."
GLA
If you thought you would loose as Argentina will a landmark and massive YPF court case , wouldn't it be and smart sensible for any government to just buy as many buy options in burford as you can and claw back as much of your money as you can ? or even buy the whole case of the original YPF shareholder party for $15 million as Burford did, isn't hindsight a wonderful thing LOL. Though there's still time for those buy options in Burford , that's far to smart a move for Argentine politicians.
GLA
Though governments are normally daft with voters money as we've just seen in the UK.+ Russia and most other places.
It looks like the market players and manipulators are having their last chance at scaring investors into selling up and taking out stop loss positions today, there is no justifiable reason in the UK or USA for today's fall, our win result can't be to far away unless Argentina asked for a private and sealed judgement from judge preska, and that may last for several months if they indicate to J. preska and Burfords team that they need time to take the judgement in, and put the political work into getting a agreement on a large settlement offer, after all they have already acknowledged the potential consequences and monetary value of any settlement,
I agree with renegade it would be difficult for Argentina's president Alberto Fernandez to push a settlement through now with its people angry at the cost of living and their inflation nearing 100% at year end , and kicking a settlement down the road and around a Argentine election would political help Alberto Fernandez, as I know this week two of his ministers quit, he's walking on shaky ground right now,
The other argument is that Argentina can't afford a bad world reaction or especially a American backlash against Argentina
who won't compensate investors for American shares in a exploration exercise and subsequent lawsuit, it's actually outrageous for any country to pull such a stunt to avoid proper and full compensation. to proceed without paying out on a settlement would be commercial suicide for companies wanting to raise capital for the world markets /namely the American markets, how can the American system "SEC"proceed letting any company trade on their platforms, they would need to intervene somewhere,
Argentina can't afford to just leave this case and a potential $14++++ billion dollar judgement against them and just hanging over their heads causing it incalculable damage to its world trading and it's need to get its hands on American Dollars for its main trading reserves which is in dollars, any other country it might resist, also the American system and it's need to trade there would be catastrophic for its main earnings and revenue streams, it would potentially destroy Argentina if there was no trading with America,
So Argentina and it's very shaky government will most likely pay up one way or another, because of its needs for dollar retention I would suspect even a mixture of sovereign bonds and even some dollar reserve's to close down this , our case is not just about a win and owed money ,it's about Argentina saying to the world it's ok to trade with us we will respect international laws and rulings with settlements to follow.
What's happening to our share price is market manipulators as usual playing inbetween the great news that's coming our way. I've not changed my belief that Burfords share price will be many times it's current level next year if not simply tomorrow.
GLA, never a dull day in this old game , Lamborghini, yes that's a r