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Sebastian maril has numerous years of expertise to be able to put his finger on the pulse of this YPF case and give that expert conclusion advice in how to settle this case, by a mediation settlement for the amount of that billion dollar settlement money.

Burford will show what it's made of and win this case, I've no doubts whatsoever.

GLA

Great find TWT, something to get our teeth into now,

Yes excellent write-up and opinion Sammy88,

We have a solid case here to win against Argentina, also Sebastian maril knows this is a losing case for the Argentinean state, with only a out of court negotiated settlement needed to close this one out,

Exactly just now much ,and knowing the Argentinean state is on its financial knees , maybe $2 or $3 billion dollars in sovereign bonds money , or I would be happy to take Argentina's 51% share of it's American listed oil shares as a down payment right now. that should bring in over $750 million right now.

What I still find absolutely astonishing is that all this potential is essentially a free bet on burford shares , and everything else in burford is thrown in for next to nothing as it's still extremely cheap on its future bare litigation earnings.

I said burford should be more than triple it's current share price in just a couple of years time, though when they win this YPF case it could be quadruple it's current share price in just a few years time,

This is a absolutely crazy situation , a opportunity to basically take a risk free bet on the outcome of a near certain win court case, that could at the very least double your money, and potentially more than quadruple your money.

The share price as I've said before can dance up and down all it wants, but ultimately it will hold a much much higher level with what's coming down the road for burfords share holders.

GLA

Yes youonly great find, although a little on the conservative side , though I would say that, LOL.
How many people will it take before the market makers on both sides of the Atlantic mark burfords shares up to a reasonable level. !!!.

also that write-up didn't factor in any money we should quickly receive back in our actual ongoing litigation court cost, never mind any actual settlement money, this could be around $30/$50 million dollars we'd quickly get back.

That guy Marco Brecciaroli a student focused on fundamental analysis and deep value investing into financial companies has done a excellent analysis of burford, huge respect sir.
Another thing the dollar has once again risen strongly against Stirling tonight, this obviously makes our future earnings and dividends higher in Stirling terms . our share price will eventually double and then triple over the next year or two. and even then we will still probably be a cheap PE company to buy,
If burford can get their hands on our a nearly guaranteed win and settlement money from our YPF case then that win should elevate burford in the eyes of American investors big and small, remember a lot of us were not convinced burford would collect on that Russian broken marriage settlement money, and yet we won fantastically, I feel burford has some hidden clever idea's up its sleeve to win and retrieve our near certain YPF win and to get some of not all of that YPF settlement money.

The share price can keep doing it's merry dance up and down , though eventually that excellent burford report from Marco Brecciaroli will be fulfilled and burford hitting and surpassing his future share price and earnings predictions.

My earlier post and predictions around the share price rises still stand / if you believe them , as I believe in what can come out of that $4.8 billion dollar funding and deployment money , and a future aggressive March Into new litigation territories and even much much more increased deployment money. The futures bright.

GLA

Pointdexter the share price can do whatever it wants as it's basically directionless , with American investors still not getting how burford will perform in the long run, the muddy waters fiasco will take some time to completely disappear in America, though once burford shows it can churn out the settlement earnings year after year outside any pandemic court closure then burford will multiply its share price many fold, it's not something that might happen it's something that will definitely happen, I can be reasonably sure of this because of the $4.8 billion of deployment money invested today, I've never been so sure of any investment in my life as I'm in before right now, yes the share price is directionless now, but give it a little more times to catch up with the markets high share price valuations and our future substantial earnings from our deployment money.

The futures really bright for burford,

GLA

TWT great minds think alike, I've only seen this now LOL, yours makes better reading LOL.

Yes it was March the 8th for motions for summary judgement but that was in 2021, so wasn't it all just put back a year or so ?
I dropped my kindle /tablet and destroyed it with all that information on it, and after this new omicrom variant, who knows how our long our opponents lawyers will take to come to the table, any excuse to stall I guess,

I'm actually relaxed about these things because of how resilient burford is in any downturn bar a pandemic court closure, as all that future stalled profits will just appear at a later stage with higher interest bonuses for burford, the YPF case is a winner all day long ,though getting the settlement money off Argentina will be another drawn out process, but as long as they owe us the settlement money we can still go back to the courts to quickly or slowly collect. Maybe over many years , but I really don't know as I'm quite sure burford will have private plans to recover money from Argentina in some way, probably financial assets, though that maybe a bit tricky as sovereign assets can be protected in some ways.

GLA

Another brief update from Sebastian maril , Argentina will present in court in New York tomorrow with its own findings around burfords finding and report from last September, though it's all confidential.

The average PE in the USA is 23 PE, Burford sits at just over 13 times PE, so it's not difficult to work out the substantial discount and opportunity in buying burfords shares right now,

Burford will definitely deliver a substantial profit from its $4.8 billion of deployment money ,

It's actually laughable that the markets can't see this one coming , and even after burfords BOD have pointed to the expected future earnings from $4.8 billion of deployment money, even without a average USA PE of 23 burfords shares should still double with the expected future earnings and even again a low PE , if the USA market eventually understands burfords and gives it a fair valuation of around 23 times PE ,and given the future average expected earnings from the $4.8 billion of deployment money, then burfords share price is set to soar , burford is indicating profits averaging out at around $6 to $7 hundred million dollars over a 3 year period, I have no reason to doubt it will get near those figures other than delaying tactics from the court systems and other lawyer teams. and in even saying that profits will only be delayed to another near term time frame.

With profits of around " $6 "to $7 hundred million per year then given $6 HM, burford could earn £2 Stirling per share and easily have a Share price of around £26 Stirling at a low 13 times PE IF the USA institutions give burford a average 23 times PE then burfords share price could climb to around £46 Stirling or $61 dollars, I feel when burford delivers this expected average profit then the market may just split the difference with a 18 times PE giving a share price of £36 Stirling.

So there's a huge opportunity here to multiply your money with plenty of room for error, throw in burfords drive to grow and dominate this industry on a world-wide basis and the USA may just give burford that average USA 23 times PE and a £46 Stirling share price. I've done my sums and this adds up to a genuine excellent investment opportunity with the biggest litigation funder in the world with a very significant dominant lead and position .

GLA

One uk share or the equivalent in dollars for one listed on the NYS.

Also the simply Wall Street platform and app have now given Burford capital a fair value of £21.33p

You can check this out yourself by easily looking this up. Now that’s what I call a reasonable fair value and then building on that price from later on next year.

Yes TWT happier profitable times.

The market strategist or players driving our share price up and down on a daily basis should take note and tread carefully now ,
Just one decent positive write up or buy note from investors chronicle or otherwise could see our share price shoot very quickly upwards to reflect burfords true future earnings and case realizations, these financial journalist should be interpreting burfords future earnings guidance and probably give a similar future share price to my ordinary share holder forecast , it's not rocket science just simple common sense, the facts are all there, the funding money is out and only waiting for it to return in profits, that's what gets to me it's stairing people in the face here, what more do potential investors want, but and sit tight for 2/3 years and potentially triple or quadruple your money , or even much more, even a market fall shouldn't knock burford off its course to deliver its guidance forecast of $2.3 billion dollars inside 3 years.

GLA

Oldandwiser burford is cherry picking the best cases because they get handed thousands of cases each year with only around 7 ? of cases accepted and they are the most lucrative in relation to the risk reward opportunity. That's why burford will grow exponentially in profits and size, it's a fantastic company to get invested in and even right now.

Syoun11 a typical average case will take 2 to 3 years to conclude , that's why burfords management have give the guidance to expect that return from the current funding money employed, yes some cases sit on the books for much longer, though this very scenario has been discounted when burford gave that substantial guidance figure, believe me burford have very carefully
and legally checked everything out with the blessing of the SEC / securities and exchange commission, and also gave shareholders a several pages long written declaration that this guidance is from their money employed and expected returns from their business model, and not a cast iron profit forecast to any future earnings, they simply can't preempt to shareholders a judge's decision even though our YPF case should clearly and easily win , though the markets reluctance to factor that win into our share price is because it may be temporarily difficult to collect that settlement money from Argentina, though in saying that Argentina will still owe that settlement money to burford , and it will be collected by burford one way or another, and maybe over a longer time period, but it will be collected with all our cost paid upfront by Argentina.

So as renegade says their is that YPF settlement money to objectively factor into any future earnings guidance or forcast,

GLA

I reiterate !

Burford guidance average earnings over the next 3 years should average out at
Approximately $786 million per year , equalling $3.50 per share equalling even at 10 times PE = $35.00 dollars or £25.68p Stirling.
Burford have already deployed this money to bring back this guidance return, they have already shown they can deliver this return with their business model over many years, I have no reason whatsoever to doubt they can meet this guidance return ,
It's even more than possible this guidance return can be built upon and even increased as some cases can be taken now with very early settlements inside that 3 year guidance stated.

So it's a reasonably assumption that burfords shares could easily be sitting around at the very least £25 Stirling at 10 times PE in 3 years time ,
given a average PE in this type of sector of around 14 times PE we could even see a share price of around £35.96p stirling inside that 3 year guidance from burford.

I don't know about anyone else but I think this is a extraordinary situation and opportunity for investors.
Why should this guidance actually happen and translate into substantial profits ? Because burford capital have cherry picked the best and most likely winning big cases and have deployed the funding after exhaustive business modelling testing with specific lawyer committees and numerous safe guarding to that funding money, so I've no reason to believe burford won't deliver on that future profits guidance from their business modelling forcast.

My share holding will make a great second pension, what a incredible opportunity to multiply your money over just a few years.

GLA

Apologies, it should have read averaging out at $3.50 per year earnings at 14 PE equating to a share price of $49 dollars or £35.96p share price valuation.

Burford state $2billion +360 million of performance fees of profit inside the next 3 years
In 2018 they made $ 343.65 million profit equalling $1.50.+ earnings that year
So dividing that $2.360 billion over 3 years = aprox = $786 million per year .
So burford should easily earn a "average "over $2 dollars a share per year over the next 3 years," balancing out at that".
Give a current PE of 14 that equates to a share price of $28 dollars or £20.55 pence
that doesn't factor in our YPF case.
Also our smaller competitor LITIGATION CAPITAL funder sits on a 24 times PE.

So it's straightforward to see the potential for substantial capital appreciation over this time period.
Burford capital is substantially undervalued even at it's current share price , also the risk reward here seems very low even with a stock market fall, as burford is virtually immune to a normal worldwide recession though seemingly not a very rare worldwide pandemic.
The market seems to want to see that profit before it gives that £20.55 p share price.
Though the deployment money is spent and only waiting to come back from realizations , burfords business model indicates that burford will deliver that indicated forcast,

It seems to me a excellent very low risk with high rewards opportunity.

A big thanks to you "renegade" for summarising all that for us , thats all worth saving to our notes etc.

GLA

So going on what Sebastian maril has said on his twitter feed burford could even get a settlement offer in January next year , also as Chris Bogart once verbally said this YPF case is basically a straightforward lawsuit case for burford, he wanted to say straightforward "winning" lawsuit case, but he can't use them words or he could or would get into trouble with the stock exchange rules and regulations. The Repsol settlement money has already dictated the outcome of our winning YPF case, that's why burford grasp the opportunity to buy the rights of these cases, with the knowledge that they could sensibly sell parts of the claim to 3rd parties and negate any monetary risk for its shareholders, a absolutely brilliant stroke of conservative risk taking.

Also again a big thank you to Sebastian maril for giving us all that information in his twitter account.

GLA

Reposting this from Sebastian marils twitter account for those that hadn't twitter,

Sebastian marils OPINION.
The responsible way to end this lawsuit is a out of court settlement , if both parties bet on waiting for a ruling from the judge,
Who ever loses will lose a lot, they both know that the monetary damage of the loser is significant.

Me,
I have immense respect for Sebastian maril, though before that burford have already substantially profited from the Peterson case and any monetary loss to burford surely would only be with a temporary share price retreat before burford found its natural earnings and fair value or price, that was the whole point in selling several parts of the Peterson case to negate any lawsuit loss , it's now a win win situation for burford other than a most likely billion ++ dollar + settlement win or a temporary loss of confidence in winning cases, and we all know Burford win around 87%+ of cases.

This has to be the best low risk high reward opportunity around today.

GLA

The excellent journalist Sebastian Maril has posted.

And Argentina the {Tax payers } if we loose we will have to pay more than $3.5 billion dollars on top of the $ 5 billion dollars that we have already paid to Repsol.

For this reason at the hearing , on Dec / 21 it will be the first opportunity to start negotiating a agreement.

Thanks Sebastian Maril for getting that info to your followers and our forum posters and readers.

Any good lawyer right now would say this is a done winning deal bar any settlement agreement , Argentina will have to settle this with sovereign bonds, it would be to damaging and humiliating to watch burford freezing Argentinean state assets held in America and around the world .

This share is going to fly either now, this year or next year , but it is absolutely going to fly to match this incredible opportunity for investors here and in America.

GLA

Warno01. That write -up was last weekend/ week’s edition, not next week, it was a large writ-up, though it did mention taking earnings estimates with a pinch of salt, though to be fair to Burford I genuinely feel those estimates are wrong and the earnings will be much higher, WHY!? Because I don’t think those estimates at all take into account the unsettled cases from our last 6 months of losses, so I’m expecting those to come through next year on top of our normal earnings and settlements and even without the Peterson case outcome and settlement,

I also feel that the confidentiality clause Is to help Argentina negotiate a final settlement with Burford.

Gla