RE: Winner winner chicken dinner… mostly4 Jan 2022 14:32
Yes Happy New year.
It's a excellent rise today, though what the share price still tells me is that the markets still don't know how to come anywhere near to accurately pricing burfords shares, and yet the big in your face clue is in the deployment money put into a carefully chosen diversified number of litigation lawsuit claims, the market is telling us they don't know if we we win or even collect on our huge YPF case, we will win it ok, the collection of the settlement money may take more time to collect than we would like, given that other settlement collectors are in a Queue for lesser amounts, though they don't have the expertise in-house that burford has to collect large sums of settlement money, / the Russian divorce case that very few people thought would be collected.
Burford only accepts around 7 % of the litigation cases it gets asked to fund every year, " WHY ", because of a very stringent acceptance criteria that needs to be met on paper, in other words the lawyers can visibly verify and see on a paper trail that
they have most likely got a winning lawsuit in front of their eyes, it's that simple, the other 93% of rejected cases that they turn down will not have met that threshold, but in that 93% of rejected cases lies a very substantial amount of other winning cases that taken together with losing cases can still pay burford a very handsome profit, other much smaller litigation funders like " litigation capital " take on parcels of cases and knowing that 5/6 out of 10 winning cases will still leave them with a good overall profit as they know certain cases are nearly guaranteed winners with big payouts, burford is the goliath when it comes to massive funding requirements and group action claims, so they have the enviable position of cheery picking the biggest and best claims, any thing below these size of claims is looked at and taken on ,or passed on indirectly to other litigation funders, all those rejected cases are potential winning lawsuits, that are not as easily identifiable on paper to win. This there rejection, so if we are only taking 7% of cases from that 100% market, then the growth in litigation is all just sitting there in front of our eyes, and with thousands of more cases landing on burfords desk every year, this market is absolutely massive with far more work than all the litigation funders out together can even handle .
Burford could easily pump tens of $$$$ billions into litigation funding in the next few years and still not cater for this entire market, it's simply to big and his bigger as companies need to outsource this financial drain on there financial resources,
As far as the share price goes it should be 4 to 5 Times it's current share price in just a few years time, and even double this price right now, the evidence to that share price projection is simply in the current carefully picked lawsuits and funding
deployment money of $4.8 billion, " Our Day