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It can pay you to keep looking at the potential winning settlement figures from burfords YPF case, no matter which settlement figure that comes through, the value of these shares will lift significantly, also Argentina will have to pay up in some form or another if it wants unfettered access to American markets in goods and services and especially the multibillion dollar loans markets. If they don't burford will crucify them through the courts until they settle our potential judgements. No matter what Argentina will ultimately have to pay up with sovereign bonds / debt,

Good post Accomp, very informative.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SebastianMaril/status/1515292007882981376?s=20&t=5hJZ_KPW5VnIqoSqdfpoyQ

Good entry point Da_Master , and already in profit, I also just topped up at similar prices,

The burford reports can be very complex and confusing, though seemingly it's what investors have pushed burford for, and after the muddy waters fiasco. everything is put out there for all to see to dispel any notion of hidden risk or accounting cover-ups.

Fair value I think is a very basic accounting standard, to mark burfords valuations of its value on it's existing litigation cases to a very basic accounting price, but which can rise if the underlying case looks like it can be worth more at any given time during its lifespan, example = YPF case gets heard in a american court and not a Argentina court, that increases the value of the claim , and the amount burford can then sell parts of the claim onto other 3rd parties/ institutions.
Fair value can quite often be aligned to the initial cost of the case itself.

Burfords "Model" is them looking at the average returns from historical court case returns, so if that model is applied to the deployment money in our current court cases then the returns over a 3 year time frame would be around $2.2 billion

So basically Burford can keep to a basic accounting standard $1.3 billion and fair value and yet still inform shareholders that it can return profits of around $2.2 billion from it's deployment money, as that is what it historically achieves from those amounts of monetary deployments. and somewhere inbetween Lies the truth.

The market watchers want burford to give a low very basic accounting to its valuations of cases on its books, that seems fair enough and in that accounting conundrum lies a hidden value in burfords valuation and share price.

I hope that helps a little , also I'm happy to be corrected on anything at all in the above.

Yes $15 dollars around £12 Stirling , + add in another £6 if you believe burford collects a" low" settlement offer from our YPF case near certain win , so that's at least a share price of around £18 Stirling,

What does burford need to do to give us that £18 Stirling Share price , to just deliver on its business model deployment money forcast, and that would only be out by a tiny margin.

The current share price is the equivalent of finding a lost lottery ticket to any newly buying burford investors. Hold and wait for the big return. Potentially at least triple your money.

Nice one renegade, the similarities to Argentina setting the presidents for burford winning the YPF case by already admitting liability to repsol by compensating it with $5 billion dollars, and the European commission already giving a $319 million fine for the same breach of anticompetitive EU rules, burford has another near certain win on its hands with this new case, because it's already been proven by the EU commission itself. Easy money. Excellent work burford.

GLA

Let's hope the short sellers loose as much on burford as they did on Tesla shares , the shorters lost $5 billion on Tesla stock in 2 days in 2020, and around $40 billion in just a few years shorting Tesla. It should be banned or seriously restricted as it's more often than not misused to harm good trading companies and also disheartening to ordinary investors who quite often avoid a sharply dropping shares, Tesla had a amazing solid fan base behind Elon Musk pushing it's shares to unbelievable highs, I wonder can we get Christopher Bogart to do some we strange arm shaking dance on a stage in front of a burfords future earnings forecast LOL. You never know LOL

Our shares will probably just blow in every direction until the serious money comes in , then they can retrace there historic highs and even go well beyond that, but until then we can sit safely knowing we're in a recessionary proof business model that thrives during any global downturn.

GLA

Da_Master you done well holding burfords bonds at that interest rate,

The recent SP fall does seem like a excellent " potential " opportunity to buy burford at a low entry point, and I say this even though the market could still fall further, I done know what the markets going to do for definite, nobody does,

Da_Master ignore a lot of what burford says around carrying value with the YPF case, instead call it a guesstimate , also whatever they have banked from selling parcels of the YPF case , well that's burford being incredible sensible and making sure burford don't loose on this case, it was a master stroke to lock that profit in ok, Anything else is a bonus.

The average settlement of a case right now is around 2 to 3 years, though it was lost pandemic 2 years I believe, though there are longer cases that can drag on for 7/8 years and more and even still come back as winning cases and settlements. That's been stated and proven by C.Bogart,

So you need to recalculate your sums again, I think burford said they should return around £2.1 billion from their $4.8 billion deployment money inside a 3 year time frame, / Average settlement time, and that doesn't include the YPF case,

The deployed $4.8 billion would be mentioned in numerous places on the Main Burford PLC site,
The funding for our cases is from a mixture of different diversified source's, bonds like you bought, +sovereign wealth fund, and anywhere burford can borrow money at a low interest rate,

When Burford win the YPF case as indicated even by highly informed and very sharp respected Argentinean journalist like Sebastian maril, then you know this is a done deal, though to collect on the expected settlement money of many billions might take another type of expertise, and Burford certainly has that in abundance, as we seen in the recent Russian divorce case.
MW, what does that mean ? Muddy waters, a american company that specialises in targeting and smearing companies to sell loads of there shares to only buy them back at a much lower price and seriously profit.

Da_Master, do your own research, burford is not loved by the market, though if it collects from Argentina then the markets will absolutely love Burford. Good luck what ever you do sir/ madam.

Burford is a great innovative company . GLA

Inside a year or so investors will be banging their heads against the wall that they didn’t buy these shares, I get it ! the market and also Burfords shares are down, a incredible opportunity to snap up Burfords very cheap shares, That £4.8 deployment money will definitely come back with a huge payoff for Burfords shareholders, not maybe, “Definitely “have more faith in the business model.

Poindexter I can really understand your present outlook on burford, share price plunges will nearly always bring out negative and resentful sentiment in investors, that's completely understandable ok, though with believe in what a company can deliver in future earnings should balance that up , and knowing that burford will definitely fulfil it's indicative future earnings from it's deployment money, it will it absolutely will hit those figures or there abouts, it's whole business model has been painstakingly designed around the lowest level of potential risk to future earnings from it's deployment money, that's incredibly comforting for me and it should be to other investors, we've all seen company share prices at rock bottom and then seen them rise unbelievable highs, and that's what burford should do in the medium to long term, as long as I know burford is deploying billions per year then I know they will profit substantially from those billions, it's when they don't deploy billions per year into legal cases should you stop and seriously think twice about future earnings and your investment in burford. Burford will churn out buckets full of cash over the next few years and one day it will have to pay out to its share holders bucket loads of dividends when it sees it's balance sheet stronger than it is right now,

It does look like the world will head into a recessionary phase, governments around the world are increasing interest rates to essentially slow down public spending to control inflation, and yet they are jumping the gun, as in my estimation that has already started by the huge increases in prices which makes people reduce their own spending on heating/ oil/ gas and electricity, sucking that money out of the economy will be the equivalent of raising interest rates to slow inflation, so they might possibly be giving the economy a double blow, which in itself would make a downturn much much worse, I guess we will see, though none of this should really impact burfords future potential only really help it .
YURIF yes all major markets are down and we can't be surprised if it temporarily drags burford down with it.

Burford is a steal at this low price. Fill your boots I say.

GLA

This is a astonishing opportunity to pick up shares in a company that increases it's volume of business and absolutely thrives in any downturn or recession, the general world markets pulled burfords share price down alongside the ordinary hard hit sector's, and yet burford will churn out buckets loads of cash with several hundred million indicated, 4/5/6/7 hundred million, it could very easily be those earnings, and even higher if the YPF case pays out billions,

I genuinely can't believe burford is giving investors this incredible opportunity to at the very least double their money, it goes to show you how a share asset opportunity can sit at this very low valuation and share price but with a huge upside opportunity , Burford will bring that $4.8 billion deployment money back with around $2.1 billion profit over the next few years, I will be astounded if burfords share price is not £14 this time next year and even without any YPF settlement money,

I'm certainly topping up today in a recessionary proof business model named burford.

If burford is a dog " Poindexter" it's definitely a " Crufts " supreme champion. It's a fantastic company.

GLA

Chris Bogart recently clearly stated Argentina have a good history of negotiating and paying up on their sovereign debt liabilities, basically they eventually pay up , so it was on the e strength of that risk and also the strength of the YPF case itself that Burford is proceeding to win this case, I’m expecting a easy win and negotiated settlement amount, the share price will increase accordingly. With another major share price increase when Burford shows how it’s deployment money of nearly $4.8 billion gets returned, This year and next year should be transformational for Burford. the doubter’s make me laugh, really laugh.

GLA

NGR1616, yes nanoco was a great buy at 16p and I also considered buying it myself at 20p , though now at 31+p the downside if its litigation was to fail would be hard to take, the same could be said for shield therapeutics plc it's another risky gamble , and on one really excellent iron deficiencies medication, 19p now but could go to round £2.50p over 3/4 years if they can get that medication established around the world though mainly in America, where it's management are giving it the hard sell right now , it's right now a risky opportunity ok, though possibly 22+ times your money looks highly attractive, but if they can't get enough sales then the company will have to sell up to a larger company, also if it succeeds it will probably get swallowed up by a big competitor at a fantastic takeout price, nanoco and shield therapeutics have high risks written all over them , though burford capitals risk compared to the potential rewards are really extremely low should any small number of cases fail, and even including our YPF case, any astute investor would see that , as much as I'm tempted to throw a few thousand pounds at each of the higher risky investments I always seem to come back and favour a share that should one day quadruple it's safer share price,

I would keep a eye on shield therapeutics ok, because if they can establish that iron medication product those shares will really fly ok, and at 19p it looks like a reasonably safe gamble at that price point, because very wealthy bidders will be watching with bigger pockets to get that excellent iron product established , with the bidder probably coming from China where a bigger Chinese company is getting the product through the regulatory testing process, 22 times your money looks tempting ok, high risk high reward, though right now I'm relaxed and very excited about burfords fantastic future potential.

GLA

Brilliant " TWT, " and to Sebastian maril going through all 100 or so documents to fish out one of the most important documents we've been waiting for, it's jaw dropping to see those multi billion dollar amounts of damage estimates right in front of your eyes, if we can land this win and settlement then we're all massively in the money. That will send me to bed a happy man , LOL absolutely brilliant post .

GLA

Yes NGR1616 I'm also quietly watching that lawsuit unfold, it very well could be burford patrolling that case, the monetary value could indeed be huge, and no litigation funder would bankroll that case unless it had a identifiable on paper breach of a patent , Anne's it does seem like Samsung have infringed on several of nanocos patents , ask Samsung have a long history of infringements on other people's patents, it looks like a winner ok , but should the case fail the shares will plunge to around 16p or so, though I see plenty of value in nanocos huge patent porfolio, and that should eventually bring forth another bidding war for those valuable patents, should nanoco win then yes the rewards could run into several hundred million dollars or as high as you state, , and yes burford would also be looking at a massive slice of that lawsuit settlement money, as the risk in that lawsuit would be higher than a ordinary lawsuit case. The risk there seems to be a 16p fall back with a no win and nanoco running out of operating money sometime next year,

As I've stated here this morning , the all round risk with burford at £7.05 is so small it's virtually non-existent in my opinion.
NGR1616 some people might think your advertising nanoco to buy it, I see it like your presenting a potential very good opportunity for a higher risk taker to make a lot of money should nanoco win this case, so thank you for that imput sir.

For those here who think I'm bashing on here to much about the strengths of burfords potential, let me just say there are other new investors looking in on this forum practically every day, and just one decent reasonable positive post might catch there eye and make them buy another lot of 50k or 64000 shares or higher, if people don't repeat there post enough then
numerous other investors may just pass over this fantastic opportunity in seconds , and looking at day week months of old post, most people can't be bothered to look back on older post, and normally rely on newer positive factual posters,

though I can genuinely understand that feeling that your looking at the same old same poster same story rehashed in different ways and bashed out every other day week or as some say 6 hours.

May I also add that this pandemic is having a terrible effect on the world's population in regards to people being generally more angry and losing patients and attacking others much more easily than normal times , and we've seen this in my opinion on TV / Oscars etc, and I've seen this in life in general just recently.
Maybe we could all find more tolerance for others in a world that seems so sadly broken right now.

GLA

Oldandwiser you only have to go back around a couple of past week's when the markets Hit squad drove down and took out buyers stop loss positions to drive burfords share price down to around £6.40 and in the following week it was bought up to and hit around £7.47 and now sitting at £7.05 to buy . So there's been plenty of opportunities like that from 2017 you just have to catch them, and just like now , there's another fantastic opportunity to get in before burford skyrockets,

Just to make this clear burfords no oil or precious metal drilling prospector, hoping the seismic imaging reports come good, it's future earnings are nearly guaranteed to a certain high percentage of around 90% by its diversified range of lawsuits, that's why burford future earnings will definitely come in at at the 90% range to case deployment money, that's a historical earnings fact, yes those earnings can be lumpy by the very nature of lawsuits completions, though overall investors are increasing their money by around 20%+ per year , and even though that can jump significantly with any major win as in our YPF case, no case is definitely won until a judge or early settlement says so , though burfords business model has clearly demonstrated it works extremely well outside of a pandemic.

The opportunity here is in the eye of the beholder, what I see at the very least is a doubling of burfords share price and with no real long term stretch a tripling of the share price, even that in the next 12 months,

Very rarely do you get the chance to at least double your money with extremely little downside risk, and yet right here and now burford offers just that potential opportunity, bite it off with both hands I say.

There's always new investors looking in and everyone here should be putting burfords opportunity to them in a fair and balanced way, anything can happen in this old game, nobody knows for definite how Russia's putin will act in the Ukrainian war , and yet it has major implications for every investor and person worldwide, so on that basis always always DYOR.

GLA

Yes I find burfords shares a extraordinary free opportunity to at the very least double your money from this YPF case, or double your money from burfords pent up case load, either way you should at least double your money, though this really should win on both separate individual accounts ,with the share price tripling from today's price .

Also how do you price burford in price per earnings PE after a near definite huge win from this YPF case, as we've seen recently Chris Bogart seems supremely upbeat and confident around burfords trading and prospects, and especially when he talks about our YPF case, I've never seen him happier.

Burfords shares are genuinely a amazing opportunity right now to get in before they triple in value or even much higher over just a 12 to 16 months time period. I genuinely can see no better reward to risk share out there. there's plenty of rewarding shares out there, though they would definitely plunge in value should the gamble not pay off, burfords shares have the backup of a multitude of diversified lawsuits cases that will easily deliver enough earnings to still double the shares from today's £7 price , thats what I find astonishing,

What I'm interested in is what investors perceptions of Burford will be when they win this YPF case , will they flock to burford to give it a premium share price ? ,or still give it a average PE rating, I feel many won't like waiting a few years for a case and sell on a average PE, though them not not seeing how quickly earnings can really take off from a multitude of big case's and huge deployments of money , quite literally burford can get extraordinary opportunities and very quickly putting hundreds of millions into cases in a very short time period, plus the amount of work out there is literally over 90% higher than we take on, with this market growing exponentially every year, the opportunity and future earnings of burford should really make the shares a tight very long term hold.

What a incredibly opportunity to see how this all plays out, with any real risk at all to your initial investment money.
The more I study this opportunity the more I still can't believe investors are not loading up and sitting tight for at least 1 to 2 years.

GLA

Luthrin all that information you diligently compiled is very much appreciated.

The final court lead total amount does look like a very substantial amount indeed and should prove a real headache for the Argentinean side, I initially thought burford could net just over $2+ billion for itself alone, though it's clear it could be much higher than my figure.

Your total claim amount is $15.888 Billion

The usual settlement amount / repsol was 50% less than their actual award , so that leaves burford with
= $7.94 Billion settlement figure .
60% of $7.94 billion is $4.764 billion

$4.764 Billion seems reasonable, though in the interest of getting this case settled and closed burford might still accept a reasonable lower figure ,

Also as I've stated before Argentina should have a $14 billion trade surplus this year due to the very high grain and commodity prices , that should help Argentina cope with any public or political backlash over paying out on this case.

This case will pay out big ok, and I just can't wait for that to happen, throw in the other pent up cases and settlements and this year and next year should increase burfords share price and valuation very substantially indeed.

GLA

Thank you for all those post especially TWT ,

If there was any way whatsoever that Argentina could have gotten out of compensating repsol that $5 billion dollars then they would have never ever have paid that money at all.

The only way YPF could list in new york/ America was to write a investors protection clause into the YPF listing documents, and to protect investors should Argentina wish to nationalise YPF, the Argentinean regime at that time thought they could ride rough shot over that compensation clause, though substantial political pressure from spain and in general the EU around monetary funding for Argentina along with retaliatory measures meant Argentina compensated spain/ repsol,

Argentina knows perfectly well they have no legal standing in America or otherwise to refuse paying compensation to all the YPF investors and lost shares money .

I'm pretty certain that the legal certainty around the winning of this case is right there written down in black and white and written into the SEC listing documents when YPF listed.

I really enjoyed that bogart YouTube video, and thank you to Sebastian maril for his close following of the YPF case and again to TWT. Excellent information.

GLA

Argentina should have a financial $14+ billion surplus this year to pay our settlement money.

Interesting development, and in the year our YPF case gets finally settled with a big pay out expected+ now Argentina can easily pay this from the expected $14+ billion surplus money. As they say timing is everything.

https://en.mercopress.com/2022/04/11/argentina-foresees-foreign-trade-surplus-for-2022-study-shows

GLA

Excellent spotting TWT, one down one to go, we could do without these
Nuisance shorters.

The courts and the law ! It can be a dirty old game, though depending who's playing the game , someone like Trump who treats the law like it's just a awkward obstacle to his desired outcome , let's hope the new Argentinean regime respects the American law better than Trump does.
Though Burford will shine either way as it's portfolio is incredibly well diversified and would easily out manoeuvre any failings with its win rate of 96% , when you think about it burford can easily take on hundreds of more cases and still reduce that win rate and still make a health profit. The opportunity is enormous here, I see loads of other really good opportunities with good percentage gains though nothing approaching burfords future gains.

GLA