Member Info for Gtx1

Another thing how sick would you feel if you were one of those red ink sellers who sold your shares on Friday and a judgement came in over the weekend and Burford and Argentina have indicated they're locked into private talks for a multi billion dollar reduced sovereign bond settlement agreement. That actually could happen at anytime, if judge preska has done her home work all along and been really on top of every aspect of this case, and has established all the complex legalities around this case. though more likely a month or so of deliberations. I wouldn't risk selling and buying back in a situation like this , good luck to everyone here.

Those previous estimates we've seen posted here before were expertly prepared by Daniel Fischel , President of compass Lexecon , a consulting firm that specialises in the application of economics to a variety of legal and regulatory issues, they took everything into consideration including the YPF bylaws, including the minimum tender offer price , so the actual amount judge Preska may arrive at may actually be much higher than $12 billion dollars, though as in the repsol settlement, to speed up a settlement award and close this whole commercial fiasco down then burford would be financially prudent to follow repsol's footsteps and negotiate a similar settlement reduction, that way the Argentinean side can say , didn't we do well at getting 50% off that settlement award, and putting some kind of pressure on its own parliament and politicians to ok the award in its own congress and Senate. They actually are getting a good deal ,as most richer nations would be asked to pay nearer the full amount.

As big bigbaggerhungry says FFC what do you think the award will be ? or even the actual settlement amount ? Mind you it's only a guess like the rest of us here, but taking into account the officially expertly published estimates that may be part of the courts actual discovery calculations.

The higher the award the more Burford has for it's negotiating team to bargain with, all we need now is the thumbs up from judge Preska. to be honest it's quite a situation to be in, and basically because of the astronomical amount of money we're talking about, and also the implications for the Argentina state itself. If it issues more sovereign bonds they will have to find around $90million dollars extra a year to service the Interest payments at 3% on even a low ? $3 billion dollar settlement award.
It's mostly a Catholic country so I'm sure there's some candles being lit for a judgement to go their way.

Yes Renegade I would expect judge Preska to give a somewhat long verbal initial judgement to bother parties and also a even longer legal detailed written report to both parties and media outlets.

Going on what Christopher Bogart has verbally stated in the past, albeit a off the cuff remark , that this YPF case is really a straightforward case, with the implications being that Argentina compensated the other shareholders but not all of the shareholders, they should have compensated everyone in that 're-nationalization of YPF, with the complications arising from Argentina being a sovereign foreign state, with a somewhat loose cannon of a government at that time, which conducted itself in a recklessness commercial way to placate its genuinely poor anger voters, that hasn't changed only got worse, in fact I believe poverty in Argentina has increased by around 8 times from that time period, mostly food poverty.

I believe we will win this case easily enough and the judgment will be so big it will actually be internationally embarrassing for the Argentinean state not to address or pay down the settlement bill in some way, burford can hold onto this potentially unpaid Settlement amount for 10 years before getting it renewed by a court for another 10 years,

So I ask myself does Argentina want a American court settlement amount of say $12 billion dollars just sitting there for all to see and hinder its needs to borrow even more international funds , or secure a negotiated much lower amount of a settlement with burfords settlement team.

The reason I'm bringing this up is because of the size of this huge potential judgement, if it's not paid then this judgement will be used again and again against Argentina and won't go away ,well for 20 years, with potentially numerous burford grabs for Argentina's assets from around the world, as most countries will uphold a American high court judgement as reciprocal arrangements are enforce from around the world. Because of the size of this potential massive judgement is could easily be around for 20 years if Argentina don't try to reduce it down to a more reasonable manageable and less embarrassing amount, it should be around $12 billion with some good faith negotiating that could come down to $6 billion and I wouldn't be surprised if Burford accepted a quick in your bank account amount of $3 billion . Though somewhere between $3 and $6 billion maybe required to stop this dragging out to long , as burford would like this case behind them and to concentrate on its extensive portfolio of other big private cases.

Though because of the potential $12 billion settlement amount burford is in the driving seat here, so they have to play a tough pay up ASP stance or burford won't even contemplate a 50% reduction in the first place. I'm very confident burford will profit massively here and reward shareholders with a massive 're-rating of its shares.

always DYOR

From Sebastian maril,

One week has passed since the last possible set of briefs were filed in relation to the YPF expropriation case,
At this point, it is my opinion that Judge Preska will not call oral arguments and she will publish her ruling without hearing both sides , " I could be mistaken. "

So that's Sebastian marils current thinking around this case, you would think that after around 7 years everything that could be said at this point was said and if not written down in plain english, with all the required legal documentation identified and validated in the discovery process.

There must be mountains of paper work to go through , though probably only a small amount that actually is needed to conclude this case, desperate people do desperate things and looking at what the Argentinean lawyers are doing imply to me desperation , IE , asking judge preska to state that burford didn't actually own the shares during the share grab /nationalization stunt, Argentina at that time were doing the same thing to other Argentinean companies and in that desperate politically charged process their president Cristina fernandez de Kerchner didn't think through her nationalization actions because she got carried away with her political win and Argentinean flag waving pledges and promised anything to carry favour with the then voters, and in doing so she landed Argentina with a nearing multi billion lawsuit settlement amount, the current Argentinean president seems a somewhat more reasonable thinking person who knows the implications of bad governmental commercial decision making, I don't know how he will address a multi billion dollar adverse American judgement against the Argentine state , but he should deal with it much better than Cristina F. de Kirchner and her angry Donald Trump voter pleasing policies.

Bluewilly yes I'm sure we will all. Buckle up and enjoy the free ride here. This share will at least double even without any YPF case on its books, and should we get a good negotiated settlement then then we will all be very wealthy indeed.

Brilliant safe share to hold , Please DYOR,

YPF the ADR's , I'm guessing they are falling in price and value because of selling in relation to the risk of someone freezing that Argentinean government controlled asset, namely Burfords unpaid settlement and enforcement department.

Also when we win this case the settlement would have to come in the shape of Argentinean sovereign bonds, now normally you might not find smiling willing faces when selling these Argentina bonds for all the obvious reasons, but here's the thing burford have sold around 40% of this settlement amount / bonds to around 40 separate parties and at least 11 of these are institutional and banking groups, so it's in the institutional and banking groups own interest to buy these bonds and place them widely and accordingly with as many other bond buying groups as possible,
burford has assured itself of a ready made market for these bonds, and all because of its clever lining up of these institutional companies and the minimising of any potential risk to its financial initial outlay, burford can eat its own cake, and it's going to eat the last 60% of its big financial cake in around one months time. Everything will fall into place ok. It's going to be a truly fantastic rewarding year one way or the another for burfords shareholders.

But always DYOR and never buy without proper and fully informed consideration .

Brilliant read " renegade ", great find. Very informative.

Why should this share price not stop going up.

Because Burfords future nornal earnings should fall between €1.40c and $ 2 dollars and that's not even taking into account the pent up earnings held back by the pandemic, yes people can chase this up more knowing the fall back / any negative judgment , will be temporary and still going on to rest on even a lowly valued 10 times PE giving a share price of $14 to $20 dollars or £11.48p to £16.39p now that has to be quite a safe place to be and still chase these shares higher than what they are now, that's the whole point of me and others banging on here about the attractions of Burfords shares, and this very real opportunity to really earn some big money, for me it's like a back-up guarantee should anything go wrong, the risk here are low for long term shareholders , but as we all should know DYOR and buyer beware, as anything can happen in share buying, I take my lead from our directors, reduce the financial risk wherever you can, that's their business model and it works, remember any potential fall back will be temporary until burfords shares reflect its normal future earnings, and that means at the very least a doubling of our current share price, low risk high reward here, strong buy, always always DYOR and buyer always beware.

No it doesn't directly relate to our YPF case, though indirectly it does, it will show the Argentinean government that non compliance to a American court judgement will incur another court lead directive of seizures of Argentinean financial assets or information about those financial holdings, and that information most likely used to freeze or seize and offset those financial assets against those bondholders judgement and settlement. So in other words judge preska is setting a President for any non paid Argentinean future judgements and settlements. Notably our own case.

If Argentina insist on non payments , then it's legal reputation and financial credibility and currency drop in overall value , pushing borrowing costs much higher and also repayments to the IMF, international monetary fund. Become even more difficult to pay off. So it's in Argentina's own interest to genuinely and seriously negotiate on any owed money or bond payments to stave off that really nasty financial chain reaction.

Yes this really could have some time to go before the share buying tapers off, as Sebastian maril has stated judge preska's previous judgments took 51 days in 2016, and 115 days in her ruling in 2020

So it's a free for all where burfords share price will rest before a final ruling , I myself would say somewhere between £9 and £10 seems like a reasonable place, and even though Burfords share price should be around £14 to £20 without any YPF case and using only it's ordinary future earnings to fall back on. "When" the ruling goes our way it will be a spectacular achievement for burford and it's patient shareholders, and also safeguarding innocent investors share buying for future generations to come in America and around the world. every foreign listing should then get solid legal protections from their listing regulators and respective governments .

400k shares traded across the pond, " accomp" more please LOL,

I really think right now we should be sitting well above £9 even before any YPF result, we've been there before without any imminent YPF win, still I'm very pleased with the increasing share price , every extra penny allows investors the opportunity to exit or stay in for a nearly guaranteed more than doubling of our share price and even without any YPF settlement win,

Judge preska must be asking herself , why would Argentina with a awful financial standing just pay repsol $5 billion dollars for 51% for the YPF shares if it didn't have to do so, and also thinking they could just ignore the other YPF shareholders, it's absolutely outrageous and truly scandalous for any country to think they could continue to avoid proper justice for that injustice to the remaining YPF shareholders, it took a amazing company like burford to essentially drag Argentina through the courts systems to get justice not just for this case and it's shareholders, but to establish and prove that no other country can try this type of a corporate raid or nationalization on American investors or otherwise , and set a President for any foreign listing to protect innocent investors from loosing their money, this case should have be been taken by the American government and not left for burford to fight this case.

So I would expect in the near future that judge preska will deliver a strong rebuke to Argentina's peculiar pick and mix approach to it's interpretations of international laws, and to remind Argentina that they have already agreed to and signed a international agreement that compensates American shareholders to any nationalizations from the Argentinean government. The actual settlement amount, i can see that this could be open to different interpretations, though a very large settlement is required to settle this YPF case.

It certainly is exciting ok, though this situation is prefect for those share sellers who specialize in selling and driving down a share price and scaring investors into selling and taking out their stop loss points, and investors thinking there's bad new coming, or they know something I don't know, and well anyway, I'm sitting tight here, as my eyes are firmly fixed beyond YPF, and on the hugh earnings that will pour in next year or even earlier. either way it's going to be exceptionally rewarding to hold Burfords shares right now and into next year. Good luck and good fortune to everyone holding these here.

Burford has passed the most stringent of listing test to get listed on the American markets, burford passed everything with flying colours, nothing whatsoever was reported, muddy waters themselves are/ or where investigated by the American authorities quite recently, Burgled is a billion dollar fantastic company

So what Sebastian is saying is that he thinks burford will probably win on the actual legal case though the exact compensation calculus is disputed and it may need a trial to settle that monetary argument. That's just my interpretation of what he said. I do think judge Preska will need loads of time to give all parties their full say and then come to her own conclusions, after all its a massive monetary case with maybe a lot of political anger in Argentina's assembly, it has to be fair to both parties or Argentina will balk at the proceedings in America.

The very fact that the Argentinean lawyers stated they wanted judge preska to state that burford actually didn't own the shares when Argentina nationalised YPF means to me that they argentina are against the ropes so as to speak, and clutching at straws to win the case.

Renegade= excellent posts,
Also both parties have stated they don't want this case to go to trial, so a summary judgement would be very helpful for both parties here.

When exactly that potential summary judgement comes in " is anyone's guess. "

Sebastian Maril is Hypothesizing the outcomes for our YPF case, very interesting theories he's coming up with, well worth a visit to his twitter account. It's probably a long waiting game here now, + A big thank you to Sebastian Maril.

I'm expecting a clear YPF win for burford here, with the amount of around $12 billion dollars, with a negotiated 50% discount for early settlement without a appeal on the case, =$6 billion dollars , burfords. 60% cut $3.6 billion or £2.956 billion Stirling , burfords current company valuation is around £1.59 billion, now that's not a kick away from tripling our current share price to around £21 + add on the substantially increasing earnings that are expected and we should have a Share price of at least around 4 times today's current share price, at around £28+ now that's got to be something to get excited about.

I genuinely believe burford has already won this bar any more stalling tactics from Argentina, they will as usual stall around paying up to quickly, and also getting it passed by its legislative assembly in Argentina, but they should eventually pay up ok.

I guess our case is only getting really serious right now around the ultimate legal clarity and in front of a judge with huge Argentinean legal dispute resolutions and experience, so we're well on the right tract to get a definitive resolution and legal answers to our YPF case, no matter what happens in this one case, burfords future earnings are nearly guaranteed to give it's share holders at least a doubling of its current share price.

The next few months will be very interesting, imagine holding a share that will double in value because of its ordinary future earnings, and also getting the free opportunity to maybe quadruple your money because of this YPF case, it's probably one of the most exciting shares I've ever held, also who knows what other interesting and very large earnings enhancing legal cases burford might find. Fantastic share to hold right now.

Excellent TWT, & Renegade,
This is so important to Burfords YPF case in court. It wouldn't surprise me if it was that signed agreement that initially spurred burford on to purchase the legal rights to that YPF case in the first place.

I'm guessing it's only the complexities around the collection of any settlement from a foreign country and that huge multi billion dollar YPF case.

I just wonder what burfords share price would look like if we win /"when we win, " but not collected on the settlement money . Or is there a inbetween optimistic higher share price that factors in that risk either way. Or can burford freely sell a discounted part of any settlement amount long before any money comes in ? . Interesting scenarios.

Yes it's a breach of contract from the agreement from the contracts agreed on and signed on the 14th November 1991 by America and Argentina and entered into force on October 20 1994. .
The agreement was concerning the reciprocal encouragement and protection of investment.

That Argentina nationalization of YPF broke that signed contract between America and Argentina. Compensation should have been payed to any investment parties that lost due to that nationalization decision.

I'm unable to post a link from this signed agreement as it's a PDF downloadable file,

Though if you put exactly this into your browser you should/ May gets this up ok. " On the next line. "

Put into browser = Argentina and American invest treaties

Then go down to the line that says = Treaty between United States of. You will see a PDF file attached,

After download save time and skip pages and go to page 4 and read ARTICLE IV. In this part of the treaty it clearly shows the agreement that Argentina has sighed for, and then broken its agreement, allowing burford a clearly stated broken signed agreement to proceed to court with, and that should completely see burford get full compensation from Argentina.

https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/.../treaty-files/12…

Short, ? more like the inflation numbers 8.6% are dragging the American markets down + everyone else down today,

Burford is sensibly filling it's boots full of cheap shares for their employees and before a near certain and significant re-rating leading to a very possible and significant share rise.

Brilliant TWT, again in that Sebastian Maril Argentina v YPF nationalisation it shows over and over again how totally bankrupt of corporate governance and respect for normal international law, judge Preska will be aware of all that government’s background and failings.

The ruling will go in Burfords favour, the collecting of the settlement will be another drawn out affair, though Argentina do have a history of eventually settling most of these big adverse judgments against them. Also Burford employs the industries gold standard expert’s at collecting ordinary settlements and also huge billion dollar judgements . It really is a win win win here at this current share price.