Member Info for Gtx1

Youonly totally agree I was wondering about the increasing wage pressures in Burfords now as everyone seems to want more money and they are getting it, it's not about just matching inflation, companies are offering much higher wages to just poach or get staff, I would expect burford will pay more now , but now much more ?? Though we'll pay them out of our YPF case money. Burfords growing and so will our overheads .

GLA

Mrmarroc you may be right anyone who can escape death from a gun jaming inches from her head must have 9 lives , and prisons nothing after that incredible escape, yes that 70 year rule is another life of her 9 lives. If I were her I'd emigrate while she can or after her appeals and aged 70 , unbelievable the laws in Argentina, no wonder the inflation is near 100%

Just give us our money and we'll be gone ,

GLA

I totally agree Renegade, it shows up what type of regime she run and ruled over, with the present one getting closer to America to help them recover tax loopholes for Argentina's tax authorities.

I'm glad she's as good as finished, though she still has some ex presidents privileges to keep her out of prison for a while/ appeals. This should really show up the injustices to the YPF shareholders who lost there money/ now burford,
We will collect ok when Judge Preska gives us our winning judgement.

GLA

Yes it must be down youonly , it’s not working.

34 days to Xmas or a possible YPF summary motion result, with the Xmas rush and employees festivities and holdbacks , yes we could be looking at a later summary motion judgement ok. It would be nice before Xmas though LOL.

Yuri.F I guess you don't believe in father Christmas then . LOL

It often surprises me that all those presentations are not filmed professionally or equally filmed on a excellent iphone with impressive professional looking qualities and then posted on Burfords website or simply YouTube , Most of us here have watched some of Burfords presentations on youtube, it seems like a missed opportunity in my opinion, and especially if it's as easily and cheaply done with a modern Hi spec iphone, why not utilise a potentially excellent presentation and shown to a greater number of people from around the world and save them from unnecessarily traveling to any given venue in any part of the world.

Also It does look like we might get Judge Preska's verdict on our YPF case in December if Sebastian marils tweet is correct.
6 months of average waiting with 7 summary judgement motions , preska took our summary judgement request in June 2022 , a big thank you to Sebastian maril for giving us all that excellent information in his Twitter account. Invaluable sir.

It's going to be a fantastic Xmas period either before or shortly afterwards Xmas , GLA

I find it astonishing that Burfords share price isn't already north of £10 , and even after completely factoring out the YPF case in it's entirety, next year will be a complex set of results, considering we should benefit from most of the pent up covit19 case earnings, the earnings should be substantially higher than a ordinary average years earnings, so I'm unsure how the market will factor this into our share price, that said I believe the share price should still be well of the £10 Mark without the YPF earnings and case win, it's ridiculous to think the Argentine government could possibly be let away with not compensating any foreign countries share holders for a effectively a share grab without a full monetary compensation for that Re-nationalization, no country should allow that to happen,

It would be great to see this positively resolved by judge Preska before Xmas as it's a long time to leave everyone on tenderhooks , though I do understand Judge Preska has to be diligent at delivering one of the biggest and most important judgements of her entire life, and also with worldwide implications for any foreign sovereign government to replicate this corporate act of smash and grab shareholders money, it's simply outrageous at any level of fairness and to corporations or ordinary shareholders.

If Judge Preska gets this just right then she really will have to get her very substantial due diligence and home work done to perfection, and leave no room for complaints or appeals with any merit to her landmark judgement, I believe she has no justifiable reason to not insist on compensation for the wrong doings of the Argentine state in this case, I believe Judge Preska has little or no choice whatsoever but to fully compensate the injured party here / now/ Burford ,
Argentina themselves by their own admission have already pencilled into there own financial liabilities of over $8 billion dollars of a potential pay out in this YPF case, they wouldn't do that if they thought this case was without merit, they know this case is a most likely looser for themselves, that $8 billion is what they think they will most likely have to pay to burford
, with anything less being a bonus for themselves, this case is a winner all day long for Burfords shareholders and the Argentine state knows it, will we conclude it before Xmas or after Xmas, that's the only question I'm asking myself right now, to be fair to Judge Preska she has to take all the time in the world to leave no room for her winning judgement for burford, the longer it takes the more secure her final judgement will be in my experience, and that possibly might even be after Xmas, good things are worth waiting on,
That report below I felt was reasonable until it says a 5 year term share price target, if it had said 1 to 3 years ,that would be nearer my own personal price target, Though he was putting it as a conservative price target, in 5 years a $40
G

Another excellent find youonly, £36 will do me nicely , isn't that around my top price to achieve all them years ago and baulked at by some LOL.

TWT I couldn't have put it better myself in your post, many thanks guy's , onwards ad upwards, no telling how long Judge Preska will take, though she must have most of her and summing up done and everything just going onto paper.

GLA

21 hours ago Sebastian maril suggested Burford should negotiate with Argentina a ten year payments settlement with Burford , I totally agree bar a large fully upfront settlement offer, I also suggested this several times in the past, " WHY, " because it gets Argentina off the hook regarding having to tell it's long suffering people they will have to suffer even more until they pay out on another multi billion dollar settlement court case , if Burford was paid say $800 million in sovereign bonds per year over ten years , just think about the tax saving implications for this spread out over a decade, the tax savings would be huge , in actual fact Argentina would also be saving in sovereign bond interest payments and effectively robbing the tax from USA system, and of course all perfectly legal and above board. Burford get hopefully a reliable steady tens years of a steady income stream and Argentina gets the voters off their backs and a more manageable payments plan. Now that might do the trick for Burford, and then of course Burford could either borrow more cheaply on the strength of this set-up or just sell this partly off or the whole set-up off to another 3rd party at another negotiated lower amount or amounts, whatever way this deal gets eventually cut I'm sure Burfords share price will jump substantially from today's lows.

Sebastian maril is spot on with his thinking around settlement options, it's actually my preferred option bar just getting $8 billion upfront, the tax advantages would be very significant indeed, on a $8 billion settlement award the USA would instantly take over $560 million dollars alone at around it's new York rate of just over 7% + companies tax rate. Now spread this out over ten years and Burford can easily write off its normal average loss making cases to exactly time those losses when it gets its money from Argentina ,to better take advantage of the USA tax system. It could be a win win for Burford and dare I say it Argentina. It really could work extremely well for both parties bar any revolutions in Argentina. and Burford which likes to minimise its risk will factor that into a hold or partly sell off plan. " partly sell off plan I guess"

All food for thought , GLA

If the settlement award was for say $300 million then the posting of a bond could also be around the same figures as for a massive multi billion dollar award. As long as it covers our legal fees, don’t get me wrong I think a huge bond should be posted to be in line with the actual award. Sadly I don’t believe it works that way . If a bond was the same as the award then you would probably find the case looser / Argentina less likely to appeal, and then genuinely start negotiations around the settlements.

GLA

It does look like Argentina will kick this down the road after a clear Burford win, because it's not going to make much difference to Argentina if it's a $14 or $19 billion dollar judgement, why ? Because they ultimately will only be able to pay out X amount of billions to burford , say $6 to $8 billion in the actual settlement amount, their Senate won't struggle to pass anything higher if even that amount , as their own voter's would turn into a Lynch Mob, so they must be saying to themselves when burford win here ,then we'll just appeal and stretch this case down the road for another couple of years and past the Argentine elections and also post a appeal Bond for in around d $50 or $ 100 million into Judge Prekas office, , that seems like a electoral and a financially sensible position for them to take.

Though our soon to be announced multi billion dollar potential judgement amount would still bring us instant and substantial gains to our share price right now , as the market will know they were going to probably appeal this judgement anyway,

This judgement is so important to protect investors in America and from around the world, and the legal investigations and checks needed from multiple jurisdictions might take considerably more time than we had planned for here, American law and basic common sense to protect investors and also commercial companies under international laws should ultimately triumph here, though a timeline for Judge Preskas judgement might take considerably more time, I honestly don't know. It's simple a guessing game around this subject.

I really can't wait to see Burford fulfil its potential earnings from it's massive amounts of money invested in the thousands of cases it's invested in. One way or another Burfords shares will soar this year and if not definitely 100% next year.
GLA

Yuri you or I don't know for sure what it would cost to take a substantial holding in burford, these things can be executed very quickly and below the radar of overall market , yes they will all know soon enough, maybe even in 15 minutes or so, though a massive amount of Burfords share options can be bought in just seconds from multiple parties acting for the Argentine state, but then again is that insider trading, maybe , I down know for sure. Now if Argentina is not aware of the actual judgement then maybe Argentina is free to buy up millions of Burfords share options. I know it's all immaterial as Argentina wouldn't be that clever to carry out a smart move like that, after all look where they're at now LOL.

The Burford share price is totally meaningless right now considering the massive opportunity on two fronts, our YPF case
and separately our huge future earnings next year, nearly all the legal companies are reporting business as usual and a increase in business during this downturn, the likes of DWF have recently told their shareholders when times get tough , Lawyers have a knack of coming out on top, they reassured investors at it's recent annual general meeting that trading is still in line with expectations, and that the successful implementation of a new global operating model last year is fuelling it's strong performance.

Business for Burford will also be on the up from now onwards bar any need for substantial amounts of money at the correct borrowing rates, though that should be be a problem. I'm happy about Burfords future prospects ,we just need our share price to reflect Burfords fantastic and nearly guaranteed future earnings from it's $6 billion of invested money and case loads. "Only a matter of time ."

GLA

If you thought you would loose as Argentina will a landmark and massive YPF court case , wouldn't it be and smart sensible for any government to just buy as many buy options in burford as you can and claw back as much of your money as you can ? or even buy the whole case of the original YPF shareholder party for $15 million as Burford did, isn't hindsight a wonderful thing LOL. Though there's still time for those buy options in Burford , that's far to smart a move for Argentine politicians.

GLA

Though governments are normally daft with voters money as we've just seen in the UK.+ Russia and most other places.

It looks like the market players and manipulators are having their last chance at scaring investors into selling up and taking out stop loss positions today, there is no justifiable reason in the UK or USA for today's fall, our win result can't be to far away unless Argentina asked for a private and sealed judgement from judge preska, and that may last for several months if they indicate to J. preska and Burfords team that they need time to take the judgement in, and put the political work into getting a agreement on a large settlement offer, after all they have already acknowledged the potential consequences and monetary value of any settlement,

I agree with renegade it would be difficult for Argentina's president Alberto Fernandez to push a settlement through now with its people angry at the cost of living and their inflation nearing 100% at year end , and kicking a settlement down the road and around a Argentine election would political help Alberto Fernandez, as I know this week two of his ministers quit, he's walking on shaky ground right now,

The other argument is that Argentina can't afford a bad world reaction or especially a American backlash against Argentina
who won't compensate investors for American shares in a exploration exercise and subsequent lawsuit, it's actually outrageous for any country to pull such a stunt to avoid proper and full compensation. to proceed without paying out on a settlement would be commercial suicide for companies wanting to raise capital for the world markets /namely the American markets, how can the American system "SEC"proceed letting any company trade on their platforms, they would need to intervene somewhere,

Argentina can't afford to just leave this case and a potential $14++++ billion dollar judgement against them and just hanging over their heads causing it incalculable damage to its world trading and it's need to get its hands on American Dollars for its main trading reserves which is in dollars, any other country it might resist, also the American system and it's need to trade there would be catastrophic for its main earnings and revenue streams, it would potentially destroy Argentina if there was no trading with America,

So Argentina and it's very shaky government will most likely pay up one way or another, because of its needs for dollar retention I would suspect even a mixture of sovereign bonds and even some dollar reserve's to close down this , our case is not just about a win and owed money ,it's about Argentina saying to the world it's ok to trade with us we will respect international laws and rulings with settlements to follow.

What's happening to our share price is market manipulators as usual playing inbetween the great news that's coming our way. I've not changed my belief that Burfords share price will be many times it's current level next year if not simply tomorrow.

GLA, never a dull day in this old game , Lamborghini, yes that's a r

If Argentina wishes to respect and pay a USA supreme court judgement it certainly has the resources for that payment , just look at Argentina's reserves from Argentina's central bank just last week of $36.55 billion dollars of dollar reserves. If the political will is there and they get a decent negotiated discount to any judgement then it definitely will get paid ok. With Argentina having a trade surplus with the rest of the world of $14.1 billion dollars and more to follow next year ,then those Argentinean central bank reserves will probably increase to over $50 billion dollars next year, so there's every likelihood that Burford will collect on a multi billion dollar judgement.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/argentina-tighten-import-controls-preserve-dollars-sources-2022-10-08/

It really is a guessing game here, I think with a win here the court award could easily be well north of $14 billion dollars and as much as $19 billion dollars, after all that was written into the YPF rules of the listing documents at 9% interest upon
a re- nationalization.

If Burfords win and as I expect to get well over $14billion dollars of a judgment then that amount will stay there until burford either slowly collects that amount in seized assets or sells the award on, Argentina doesn't have enough American tangible assets to seize for that amount $14+++ billion dollars, though Burford will keep that staggering amount of a award
to embarrass and hound Argentina through the courts of the world, yes they mostly like will sell on a small portion of that award/ 10s of millions to fund its hounding of Argentina assets around the world.

Burford and Argentina could very well be in talks for a settlement with judge preskas private judgement in their hands, and if that is the case then as usual these negotiations take around 3 months to conclude and even then as Sebastian maril states the other side still has to get it passed through its Senate before paying out of it would be political suicide for the offending party.

I'm expecting a clear and easy win here, with a judgement of well over $14 billion and a negotiated settlement of around £7 billion Stirling , giving Burford itself around £4.2 billion Stirling, and whatever way you divide that into Burfords share price it's still many times it's current share price, we have a Burford valuation right now of around £1.6 billion , so the risk rewards here are huge, and with future earnings next year possibly around $1.40 to $2 and without any earnings from YPF
So Burfords share price will jump massively anyway, the risk is actually so miniscule it's unbelievable as a fantastic investment proposition.

Argentina have a multi billion dollar trade surplus this year thanks to grain/ food and minerals prices , so they have p!entry room to settle most of their outstanding adverse court rulings against them.

This is going to be one of the best financial Xmas presents I've ever had in my life, with news arriving any day soon. Just imagine logging on to see your Burford investment multiply by X3 and then even by a lot more next Xmas 2023.

I'm confident of burford delivering very substantial earnings here. Good luck to everyone invested here.

GLA

Sebastian maril states There are speculations that the delay in the publication of Judge Preska's ruling is possibly related to the negotiations for an out-of-court settlement.
- Any arrangement without failure must be approved by Congress unless whoever authorizes them wants to commit political suicide,

Let's cross our fingers about this , brilliant news .

Renegade brilliant find, in-depth and spot on with its analysis on all the facts , excellent read .

Also investors chronicle have another write up on Burford, essentially it says Burford is attractive because of its Defensive position: it should be largely immune to Downturns and economic pressures. With a Hold rating.

GLA

Yes interesting watch TWT, this lady won't be messed with during any case.
Also Renegade excellent spotting on that Burfords women's rights initiative , I'd seen that before but didn't connect the cross over merits of judge preskas presents on our case, I'm sure she's by now well aware of the merits of Burfords generosity to women being championed in law. Though her judgement must always be by the letter of the law.
Thanks guys,
GLA

TWT brilliant news, she's obviously seen through that last minute stunt from Argentina.
That should lift investors spirits now. Just one more hurdle with our judgement day.

GLA