Member Info for greyw

So there is a gold loan that instead of being paid back in gold can be paid back at a much lower historical dollar price per ounce.

Using common sense, does that sound reasonable to anyone in here?

At some point we were looking at 6 times adjusted earnings, 10% dividend yield, a super high margin business (84% gross margins, 38% operating margins!) and a bunch of managable legal troubles in Canada. I don't know who was so eager to sell this at bankruptcy prices but I was happy to take other side.

Conversly, a company with an AISC of 0 dollars per ounce perceives a 0.1% movement in gold price as a 0.1% movement in profit.

Imagine a company with an AISC of 3000 dollars and the gold price being 3001 dollary. This company earns a profit of 1 dollar per ounce. Now the gold price increases by a tiny amount, say 1% to 3004 dollars.

The profit of this fictious mine is now 4 dollars per ounce four times higher while gold only moved 1%!

> We've got at least one, more likely 2, and probably three gold mines queued up, imho.

I like to make conservative predictions so that surprises are more likely to be positive. That being said, I wouldn't disagree with you here either....

I hope they won't venture into anything else than gold for the time being. It's an illusion to think that this would help the company as small as Thor.

Think about it: $THX by now knows how to explore, drill and build a gold mine. They and the contractors they use have built a good set of knowledge how to do that. The resources drilled so far can be mined in an economical fashion. There is a huge safety margin as gold would have to drop to $1500 to turn these future mines into an unprofitable mess. We've got at least one, probably two gold mines queued up....

Why waste capital on lithium now, something which Thor has no experience in building when you can built something super profitable for certain?

I believe Segun stopped talking for this reason about lithium. He hoped to quickly drill out some lithium resources to help the back then languishing share price, but I think what he found just doesn't make economical sense especially given the alternative investment of just mining gold (which is basically just a license to print money).

Apparently, the lithium move garnered some interest of some retail investors (see twitter) but then turned into disappointment once the news flow stopped. It feels like he also became more careful about forward looking statements because of that whole episode (and the douta pfs delays).

Right now, it's all about execution.

Senegal is a good starting point for the next mine. The mining code is good and the country has been somewhat stable since the 1960s. Still we are talking about west africa here...

Building mines often means cost overruns and delays, both drastically affecting how economic the operation is going to be. Luckily, in Senegal most of the mines are open pit copy-paste mines. Historically, mines have been build on schedule and without cost overruns on average.

There is a new interview with Segun on cruxinvestor dot com. Someone else already posted the link to the interview but it got nuked so I assume I can't post links.

In any case, the most interesting tidbit is that

1) Douta, PFS due Q4 2025, is probably going to be a 100-120koz/y mine. That means 20-40% higher production than Segilola.

2) Uses conventional CIL for ore processing

3) The EPC contractors building the mine are going to be same as for Segilola which afaik is Norinco

The points 2) and 3) somewhat derisk the project in my mind.

Stock is up 5% despite junior miner sector being down due to the gold slightly dipping. There must be a bunch of people wanting hurrying to get in.

I got the impression that the last RNS was leaked as it ran up one day before we got the news. Maybe someone knows more about the MLE already...

The company will certainly explode (implode?) at some point that much is clear.

You'll get your 1000x bagger any moment. I'll let Mike Buck know that he should hurry.

Well Adw189 (or TenBagTag I guess) you already need a 3-4x bagger just to break don't you lol

Certainly, there is room for multiple expansion, but a direct comparison between mines with such metrics is not sensible when the mine lifes are short. Here a valuation based on NPV makes much more sense.

Once we get better insight into the Segilola MLE, we can make a more reasonable guess on what multiple it should trade at as the cutoff of future cashflows is farther away.

Gold futures are up to $3,601 (+2.42%). Each $100 rise is about $9mn that goes to our bottom line

Its a bug with the profanity filter. Whenever they censor your text it breaks all capital letters.

I would say we have been a growth story already before. The pipeline of projects has been known for more than a year at least.

What happened is now the market starts to price in some of that future growth, especially the Segilola MLE.

We are now up 13% since the RNS (on the TSXV) and 20% in the last 5 days.

The comments in here remind me of the meme where traders love to buy at 20c, sell at 25c, buy at 50c, sell at 55c etc.

The tax holiday will end after five years, thereafter we are looking at 30% tax rate. My understanding is, that the extension from 3 to 5 years of the tax holiday is contingent on further investments in Nigeria which we are doing by expanding the mine and drilling deposits.

Regarding AISC, we naturally will face an increase as it gets harder and harder to mine more ore (deeper pit, underground, trucking distance from satellites). This is unavoidable but we are starting from a very low AISC of $1000/oz< due to low gas, electricity (natural gas) and explosives prices.

Some new information from Segun about Segilola

* He heavily implies we get a reasonable MLE, please listen yourself for the exact wording

* He estimates each additional year of mine life is $100mn that goes to the bottom line

Some new information from Segun about Douta

* 10y+ mine life

* "something much bigger than in Nigeria" in terms of ounces (meaning more than 500koz)

* "production above levels of what we produce in Nigeria" (meaning more than 90koz)

* Higher AISC due to lower grade (meaning higher than $1000 AISC/oz)

* Update/PFS delivered this year (this is old news)

There it is. ATH at C$1.01