Member Info for greyw

From my readings of the mining plan and annual reports, they need an average grade of about ~2.5-2.8g/t to produce 20koz/quarter at maximum milling speed (as I personally do my valuation with 80koz/y production).

The last few quarters we have been mining (2.30 2.01 1.78 2.07 1.93 2.44 2.43 2.85) g/t (most recent quarter first, 24q4 to 23q1) with an average weighted grade of about 2.14g/t.

So we are mining worse material right now than we are processing. To keep up production, higher quality ore is mixed in from our stockpile.

According to the mining plan, we should be hitting higher grade material in the next few quarters which should drive up the average ore grade. If we are really stuck with 2.14g/t, gold production would fall to 60koz/y from 80koz/y *in my model*.

I think people still view this stock as some kind of leveraged play on gold prices. Maybe it's traded part of a microcap gold miner basket.

Oh, and happy Easter!

I don't believe in Astrology and Wizardry classes helping with predicting short term price movements. Some people can apparently do it but it's a very very rare occurence. Mostly it's just people confusing confirmation bias with actual alpha.

If you go back a couple of pages you see a bunch of people selling just before the last ~20% move. Why would you sell something so undervalued? Well people reason that a big move upwards must be followed by some move downwards. When does it happen? By how much? It's a nonsenical game.

Another example is just recently when the USA started to do their own version of Brexit with all that tariff idiocy. Gold price shot up, gas prices went down and guess what: THX also went down to C$40! How dumb is that? A canadian company that got crazy bullish improvements in it's margins is falling in price just because the global market is dumping?

Thanks for the cheap shares, I guess!

In my opinion, just need to focus on the fundamentals. It's a much easier and more rewarding task. Then it's all about patience.

You sold?! Just when people started realizing this is undervalued?

I seriously don't understand traders. Anyways best luck to you

Damn. Wanted to pick some more up but was to conservative with my limit order. Oh well.

It's C$0.05 per year on a C$0.40 share price in Toronto. That's a 12.5% yield.

Afaik this was the plan all along. Buybacks and/or dividends this year. I'm just patiently waiting for the official announcement.

There is only so much cash they can blast into douta capex and drilling adventures...

There is a huge $hitposting war raging on the $MATD board. Even weekends offer no reprieve. We are talking 100+ chat's a day.

Too preoccupied with the situation over there I guess. Also hard to deramp a stock that keeps on delivering a solid performance.

If you follow the Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke closely, you see he likes to tout all his "successes" in the media (local conflicts, interfaith problems etc).

So the important part for him about the shares is that he gets a piece of paper that he can hold up so that people can take pictures of it and then book that as a success.

This is my read of the situation.

If you invest with just as much conviction that just a couple of words by internet strangers cause to sell or buy you are never going to make it.

Better take the money to the roulette table

I'm also watching this stock closely. The drama is just really enjoyable. Bears vs Bulls fighting in full force. Looks somewhat more positive for bulls these days.

Harchris I agree with your assessment of how the story is likely playing out. The arguments you gave match my own investment case very well. Also I own a big position.

Im less concerned about the trolls (or derampers) I refuse to believe these idiots have an impact on the price. We need big buyers and that will happen once the RNSs hit. A dude with 2k-5k bucks wont make the difference.

I don't consider it a wrong move to wait for a resolution before deciding on the next step i.e. invest/not invest.

People's tolerance and understanding of risk vastly differs. Better stand on the sidelines when something is not clear for you than let greed dictate your decisions. We are talking about micro- and smallcaps here. Errors can be more violent than in other sectors of the market.

Even If we are right, latecomers can still make a good chunk of money. If we are wrong, I'll go back to the drawing board and try to figure out where we went wrong and make a mental note. I made a bunch of costly mistakes in my investing career but I remember all of them. If there is a price tag attached to a mistake you won't really forget it.

That being said, I have high conviction that the company is well on the way. Communication with shareholders has been somewhat disappointing, but that is like half of the small cap miners out there.

Probably also necessary to know the cash burn rate

Traders are a special breed... they love buying at 10 sell and 11 meanwhile the stock goes to 20 because its worth 30.

Some pundits think the $4k/oz ceiling will be broken this year. Then again there is no way for me to tell whether that is wishful thinking or an actual possibility.

I think hedging some amount of gold makes sense, but really we are just talking about squeezing out the last bit of toothpaste I guess.

Do you know if Segun is going to hedge gold? We might not be capturing all the upside. He previously did that to make sure he can pay back the last chunk of debt.

I don't think it's smart to FOMO in a stock. You can't borrow conviction in a stock... and you need conviction to hold on.

Regarding the Nigeria as jurisdiction in the case of Thor Explorations I see the following problems and possible outcomes:

1) Nigeria's federal government promises extremly good conditions for new mining companies, but the local state of Osun is interfering claiming unpaid taxes etc. We have a lot of discussion material on this problem already so I won't repeat it. Also, western oil and gas companies have been successfully operating in the country for quite a while.

2) Local population of Osun. If you check google maps you can see that there are several villages nearby, one directly adjacent to mining activities. Listening to Segun it seems like he improved cooperation with the local population (see last videos and articles posted)

3) Religious tensions and terrorism. As we all now. Boko Haram is active in Nigeria but if you check where they operate it is mostly in the very north east of the country. Osun is in the south west rather close to lagos. Nigeria is a religiously divided country, the north are mainly poor muslims and the south are somewhat wealthier christians. The difference is wages is something like 3x. Osun is 70% Christian there haven't been any reported terrorist incidences there.

4) Political Stability. There have been phases in the 70s where Nigeria nationalized resources. Since 1999 there is a somewhat stable democracy.