RE: An investors perspective19 Sep 2017 10:47
At last a vitriol free post with a balanced view of the business! See also this piece from Moneyweek for similar:
"It's been nearly four years since Royal Mail was privatised. Whatever the merits of the decision politically, it?s been a poor investment, unless you were among the many small investors who "flipped" your shares early in the process. If you'd invested at the peak in early 2014, when the share price stood at more than 600p, you would have ended up losing nearly 40% of your money. The price has fallen to 376p, below the price at which it first listed. It recently suffered the shame of being demoted from the FTSE 100, which may force several funds to sell their holdings in it. There are plenty of reasons for investors to be concerned. A dispute over changes to the pension scheme mean there is a strong chance that the company will face industrial action, which would hit revenues and reliability. In the longer term, it faces competition from Amazon, which has shifted from being a major customer to a competitor, investing large sums of money in its own distribution network. And in the longer run, drone delivery and 3D printing could make the whole idea of human beings delivering parcels an anachronism. However, the fact remains that the company is making substantial strides in dealing with these changes. It has worked hard to cut delivery deals with retailers, including signing agreements with Marks & Spencer, and John Lewis. These contracts have enabled it to benefit from the rise in parcel volumes as retail sales continues to shift away from bricks and mortar towards online commerce. Royal Mail?s GLS subsidiary also helps it to benefit from growth in e-commerce in continental Europe. There are also signs that its recent investment in information technology is helping it to streamline costs, making it more competitive with its rivals. Even if Royal Mail proves unable to turn the core business around, it is sitting on a lot of valuable real estate, much of it in London. It has already sold some of its surplus property to reduce its debt, but it is still trading at a discount of around 10% to the value of its tangible assets. And if you include intangible assets, this widens to 25%. It also looks cheap compared to earnings ? it trades on a price/ earnings ratio of around 9.6. Its ability to generate lots of cash means that even if the worst comes to the worst, it should be able to keep paying the generous dividend of 5.8%. At these levels, the bad news seems priced in. So I?d suggest going long on Royal Mail at 377p."