Member Info for gotreal

Estimated EBITDA for SA this year is $35 - $40 million (H1 = 16.5 million and chrome and PGM prices improved in H2) on a multiple of 3 - 6 times, the industry norm, values South Africa at anywhere between $105 million and $240 million or 2.5p - 5.7p / share ....

ALL of this talk is just sheer SPECULATION until we have the circular....

The majority of that debt is revolving and if it weren't for the sale would be re-financed as it has been routinely. Most of it is associated with financing the South African business (First Rand facility - £11m; ABSA RCF facility - $7.5m; majority of the Tennant Metals facility - est. $20m) and will be unnecessary immediately post-sale. Debt has grown mostly as the Chrome business has grown as well as for copper investment. Overall the debt to equity ratio assuming full draw down of facilities (which is not necessarily the case as it fluctuates) is about 20% which is low for the industry and generally. Scare-mongering going on now..... it is NOT a fire sale and anyone suggesting it is is .....disingenuous.

There was no more detail than has been announced as you would expect.

They are producing copper; why do you think they are not? Wild assumption?

The majority of that debt is revolving and if it weren't for the sale would be re-financed as it has been routinely. Most of it is associated with financing the South African business (First Rand facility - £11m; ABSA RCF facility - $7.5m; majority of the Tennant Metals facility - est. $20m) and will be unnecessary immediately post-sale. Debt has grown mostly as the Chrome business has grown as well as for copper investment. Overall the debt to equity ratio assuming full draw down of facilities (which is not necessarily the case as it fluctuates) is about 20% which is low for the industry and generally. Scare-mongering going on now..... it is NOT a fire sale and anyone suggesting it is is .....disingenuous.

"As you can see the SP closed at 2.56% up so I really don't think the market took it as neutral because there were so many more sells than buys. " Classic.

You prefer to make it up yourself, HDs....??

We don't yet know how the payments will be structured, shev... and it is likely this is an expansion of an existing operation so their capacity to pay is probably not wholly reliant on the SA business standalone.

Edzi, that's true ... but if they were paying it all up front then they would be able to retain those profits. As it is they have to give them to us. It means we are financing the deal basically.

Shame your magnificent judgement didn't extend to HUM.... "The difference between me and the cheerleaders here is that I know this stock is a dud."

"(For clarity I do have qualifications in mineral valuation through the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, but with so little transparency, what's the point of even attempting any of that technical stuff " Tosh. Made up numbers Estimated EBITDA for SA this year is $35 - $40 million on a multiple of 3 - 6 times, the industry norm, values South Africa at anywhere between $105 million and $240 million or 3.4p - 7.8p / share ....

"The sale of Chrome and platinum assets is worth about 2.1p per share." Justify.

The chrome-PGM assets for sale. "The assets include the toll milling chrome recovery plants (Inyoni, Windsor and Windsor 8), the chrome plants at Thutse which are, combined, capable of producing ~1.85Mt/yr of chrome concentrate. Waste from the plants feeds the Inyoni PGM flotation plant capable of producing 38-40koz PGM/year with an agreement for excess waste to be treated by a nearby PGM producer. Last FY (ending June 2024) the PGM-chrome division generated an EBITDA of $24.5m, in the six months to December it had already generated EBITDA of $16.5m, with the anticipation of a better H2 financial performance driven by increased production through Thutse and the chrome price."

What do you think of the valuation of the Chrome business, Jack?

Well Mr Market doesn't think too much of it on first reading....

Bulk supply / purchase contracts will have such standard clauses to protect the parties because the issue applies to any bulk shipment of product that might vary in quality. Why would you not have them ? There need to be terms of reference to provide a framework for agreement if a "reasonable outcome" cannot be reached.

Damn.... hit the return too early.... but the intent is plain.

"Also Leon said they didn't cherry pick the 10 million tons.. I beg to differ." That is quite an arrogant statement HDs.... You don't know the terms of the agreement to purchase. There would have been clauses in the contract to protect both parties:

Clause Type Purpose

Grade Warranty Clause Guarantees minimum grade level

Sampling & Assay Protocol Ensures fairness and accuracy in grade estimates

Material Adverse Grade Clause Allows opt-out or renegotiation if grade falls significantly

Price Adjustment Clause Links payment to actual recoverable metal

Due Diligence / Contingency Provides exit if early bulk tests contradict initial results

was have been a clause to the effect that if the blended copper percentage across the whole wasn't within X% of the initial random samples then

Actually 8.25 million.... over £300k's worth.....