RE: Roast podcast....11 Jun 2025 13:21
...is now on the website https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/corporate-videos-2025/ After all of the flummery and speculation here, it makes listening again to it quite useful. In many ways Jubilee is very similar to a farmer - it is a price taker not a price maker, the prices for its products being decided by a market, not the company. Farmers must decide, usually a year in advance, what to grow that will maximise their returns based on the best available market information. And during the growing season they have to cope with the vagaries of the weather and and variable, often increasing, costs of inputs. There is a large element of luck involved. Ask a UK farmer about the price variance of fertiliser, or the impact on yields of the recent dry spell we have had to see a worried face. The more variables that a business of any type can control the less risk there is to its profits. The Jubilee South African business buys in all of its Chrome ore and, for the non-tolled operation, the price it pays varies in line with the Chrome concentrate sale price. Therefore, even with the non-tolled operation, the potential for margin growth is limited whilst the potential for input cost rises are unlimited. As Leon says in the podcast, electricity prices in SA are due to rise by far more than inflation, shortly. This makes the Chrome business vulnerable, as we saw when the price dipped to $200/t, and with it the PGM operation which depends upon processing Chrome ore for its input material. A major downturn in Chrome, where net operating profit margin is at best slim, affects the whole, country operation. Which is why it is a mine owner that is interested in buying it not another processor.
By contrast, and from learning from South Africa, the strategy in Zambia from the outset has been to acquire copper resources, removing the most important price variability suffered in SA and at the same time ensuring longevity of operations. Should this sale go ahead it will result in a Copper operation that already owns a great deal of valuable resources worth more than the current enterprise value of the whole, including South Africa, with a balance sheet free of debt and able to acquire even more high grade mines, an ability to expand far more rapidly without the capex restraints that have held it back to date and a product with a much greater degree of certainty of demand and price stability compared to Chrome or PGMs. Yes, the price of PGMs is going up this week....but can just as quickly come down again next.... and there would be nothing we could do about it.