Member Info for gordon1237

at the end of the day, it may not matter, as long as the jvvid satisfied that they can make good profits. it just seems ridiculous that they would make such a **** up. interesting to see what briana says.

Conger. It is not mistake. It is quite clear that that sort of change in gas price would produce a massive change in profits, since the costs of drilling would be the same, the extra revenue would be all profit.

Not sure what you mean by " The number does not relate to the headline of the page." on my phone page 7 is " Cambay PSC- Background" and page 8 is the 10 well economic model.

What I want is a good jv and a nice sp rise. My holding is peanuts compared to yours but is massive to me.

That should read

True in one way Espen.

True in one way sausage. It well be that 30% is s more reasonable decline rate but hard to see how they could glean that from c77h a much depleted well. They will have a much better idea as soon as they drill the first new well.

Yes it is great that the income from c77h could be enough to go cash positive and obviate the need for any more raises. Should know that in the next month or so.

It certainly seems like that they are now applying more sensible long term sales rates. It just seems incredible that they were not doing that in the first place.

Not yet sausage.

Conger. Please read the December presentation again. My post of 23.54 last night was a direct cut and paste from page 8. It is not ambiguous. It quite clearly says " 10 Well Economic Model" and gives an NPV of $725 million. The latest presentation is directly comparable and for the same 10 wells gives an NPV of $58 million fot the base case, and $120 million for the upside case. The significant difference is the change in high pressure gas price from $40 to $15, which is no doubt sufficient to change the NPV by that amount. The other change is in the decline rate from 40 to 30% and for the upside case they increase the starting flow rate from 4 to 6 mmscfd.

In the presentation they have changed the expected rate with the pump from the previous 0.5 mmscfd to 1 mmscfd. That would be great news. At $8.57 per MCF that would be $8570 per day. Also around 40 bopd of condensate. At $80 per barrel that's $3200 per day. A total of $11770 per day or $350 k per month. That would almost certainly be cash positive.

I would guess Briana might have received quite a few emails by now. Interesting to see the response. Can't help but wonder if the change is due to the jv insisting on them using a more realistic long term gas price.

Not so Conger. The original presentation clearly says " 10-WELL CAMBAY ECONOMIC MODEL SUMMARY

•25 mmsfd

peak gas production • 995 bopd peak condensate

production

•$725 mm

NPV10, pre tax & financing"

Espen. Yes it did occur to me that maybe it was because they were trying to partially compensate for the reduced price. You'd hope not. Odd that this has happened now, potentially so close to a jv.

You'd also think they might have said something in the Tweet about NPV being reduced due to lower gas prices. Perhaps they thought, no one would notice. Lol.

The other thing, I noticed they had changed was the decline in flow rate. Previously 40% pa, now 30% pa.

Hi Sprint. It is a tiny bit of money, but nowhere near enough to break even. That might improve now that they seem to expect c77h to increase to 1 mmscfd with the pump.

I have 10 million at an average 0.19 or if I take into account the profit I made when I sold last time, it's 0.13.

Jack. The NPV is in both cases a model for 10 wells.

TBH I didn't take much notice of what gas price wsd being used. Since the field development is going to take many years, I would have assumed they would have used some sort of long term average.

DP. Sprint. You are right. It is in Investors, Overview. I was looking in news, which is where the original, December version is.

Jack. You are right. It seems to have disappeared. It was there earlier. I still have the download on my phone. The original from December is still there. What the hell is going on?

Can someone else please check that it is no longer there?

Well spotted Espen. Looks like you may be right.

In the original December presentation the high pressure gas price was $40 per MCF, in the latest presentation it is reduced to $15 per MCF. The low pressure price is the same.

Given that the drilling costs are the same in both cases, that drop will massively effect profits. Pretty appalling that they didn't allow for a drop in prices in the original presentation. Prices were never going to stay that high forever.

Must read it more thoroughly tomorrow. On the face of it, it seems quite shocking. May need another email to Briana.

Yup. It's still on the website. Dec 13th 2022.

Conger. It was previously $725 million for the 10 well example.

Read the new investor presentation?

Unless I'm totally misunderstanding something it looks like they've drastically reduced the NPV for 10 wells from $725 million to between $58 million for the base case and $120 million for the best case. Somebody please tell me I'm wrong.

On the upside it seems they now expect c77h to give 1 mmscfd with the pump.