Member Info for gordon1237

Sorry Jack . I find that completely bizarre . Cambay thrown in because they had to? At this stage Cambay is by far the most important thing, even though as you say, there are a few holes. Without Cambay there will be no cash for CCS. Also , how on earth can you say it's going to be far more profitable than they say? Only the other day you were saying they would use it to attract institutional investors. They need it to be inviting as possible and obviously as accurate as possible, having just downgraded possible future profits by more than a factor of 10.

The upside case would obviously be a lot more profitable ,but thete is no way of knowing how likely that is .

We already know they have a preferred partner, because they told us they were negotiating terms with them.

Going back to CCS , are you really planning on being invested for the next 10 years, when profits may start to come in ?

Buci. I am sure the expectation is that the concession will be extended again .

Yes Espen . I assumed that was why there was 40 million spend in the first year,although some of it could be other infrastructure ,connecting to the high pressure system perhaps . In the first year they say 20 million profit versus 40 million Capex, so a net outflow of 20 million .

In the first 4 years there is 125 million Capex,so either other expenses or allowing for the cost of wells going up.

Thanks Espen . At least somebody responded. Those Capex numbers in particular made me wonder how the deal is going to be structured. Will the jv be willing to put up 40 million usd in the first year? Briana said in an email they were trying to " avoid conceding too much to potential farminees. " Makes me wonder if they may have to give up more of Cambay to get the deal over the line. Hope not.

As I said before for 10 wells break even is in the 4th year. For the Upside Case it is after 2 years . I can post the numbers for that if anyone is interested ?

Fair enough Zag . However, the numbers in the presentation and their implications do seem important. Anyone else puzzled that it was not rns'd like the first presentation?

That worked . Just about readable.

Been having a look at the graphs in the presentation. These are the approximate numbers from the base case graph. Capex, profit after tax, net cash flow and NPV. All numbers in million usd. NPV is calculated from the net cash flow discounted by 10% for each year in the future. Bear in mind this is for the 10 well model only. The full field development will be 30+ wells.

Year,,,,,,,Capex,,,,,,,Profit,,,,,,,Net CF,,,,,,,NPV

2024,,,,,,,,40,,,,,,,,,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,,,- 20,,,,,,,,,,,- 18

2025,,,,,,,,25,,,,,,,,,,,,,,35,,,,,,,,,,,,,10,,,,,,,,,,,,,,8.1

2026,,,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,30,,,,,,,,,,,,,10,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7.3

2027,,,,,,,,40,,,,,,,,,,,,,,45,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.3

2028,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,40,,,,,,,,,,,,,40,,,,,,,,,,,,,,23.6

2029,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,28,,,,,,,,,,,,,28,,,,,,,,,,,,,,14.8

2030,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,9.6

2031,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,14,,,,,,,,,,,,,14,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6.0

2032,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,10,,,,,,,,,,,,,10,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.9

Total,,,,,,,125,,,,,,,,,,,,242,,,,,,,,,,117,,,,,,,,,,,,,58.6

The Total NPV is pretty close to that in the presentation of 58.3.

A couple of comments. The first year Capex is 40 million. Does this mean they plan to drill 4 wells in the first year? Or are there other infrastructure costs. The break even point is in the fourth year. All the Capex is in the first 4 years. After that, it is all profit.

Of course if all goes well, the full field development will go ahead and they will be drilling more wells before the profit begins to decline and also more Capex. The overall NPV will be much greater.

Of course this is all for the base case. If results were to move even part way to the Upside case, returns could be much greater.

The cash flow in the early years emphasises why they need a really good jv dealm

Will post the upside numbers later.

Nope .That didn't work. Won't waste any more time .

Been having a look at the graphs in the presentation. These are the approximate numbers from the base case graph. Capex, profit after tax, net cash flow and NPV. All numbers in million usd. NPV is calculated from the net cash flow discounted by 10% for each year in the future. Bear in mind this is for the 10 well model only. The full field development will be 30+ wells.

Year Capex Profit Net CF NPV

2024 40 20 - 20 - 18

2025 25 35 10 8.1

2026 20 30 10 7.3

2027 40 45 5 3.3

2028 0 40 40 23.6

2029 0 28 28 14.8

2030 0 20 20 9.6

2031 0 14 14 6.0

2032 0 10 10 3.9

Total 125 242 117 58.6

The Total NPL is pretty close to that in the presentation of 58.3.

A couple of comments. The first year Capex is 40 million. Does this mean they plan to drill 4 wells in the first year? Or are there other infrastructure costs. The break even point is in the fourth year. All the Capex is in the first 4 years. After that, it is all profit.

Of course if all goes well, the full field development will go ahead and they will be drilling more wells before the profit begins to decline and also more Capex. The overall NPV will be much greater.

Of course this is all for the base case. If results were to move even part way to the Upside case, returns could be much greater.

The cash flow in the early years emphasises why they need a really good jv dealm

Will post the upside numbers later.

Looks like it will only allow one space between characters.

Give up

I give. Increased the spacing and it still came out the same.

Been having a look at the graphs in the presentation. These are the approximate numbers from the base case graph. Capex, profit after tax, net cash flow and NPV. All numbers in million usd. NPV is calculated from the net cash flow discounted by 10% for each year in the future. Bear in mind this is for the 10 well model only. The full field development will be 30+ wells.

Year Capex Profit Net CF NPV

2024 40 20 - 20 - 18

2025 25 35 10 8.1

2026 20 30 10 7.3

2027 40 45 5 3.3

2028 0 40 40 23.6

2029 0 28 28 14.8

2030 0 20 20 9.6

2031 0 14 14 6.0

2032 0 10 10 3.9

Total 125 242 117 58.6

The Total NPL is pretty close to that in the presentation of 58.3.

A couple of comments. The first year Capex is 40 million. Does this mean they plan to drill 4 wells in the first year? Or are there other infrastructure costs. The break even point is in the fourth year. All the Capex is in the first 4 years. After that, it is all profit.

Of course if all goes well, the full field development will go ahead and they will be drilling more wells before the profit begins to decline and also more Capex. The overall NPV will be much greater.

Of course this is all for the base case. If results were to move even part way to the Upside case, returns could be much greater.

The cash flow in the early years emphasises why they need a really good jv dealm

Will post the upside numbers later.

That's come out garbled. It was okay before I posted. Not sure how to fix that.

Been having a look at the graphs in the presentation. These are the approximate numbers from the base case graph. Capex, profit after tax, net cash flow and NPV. All numbers in million usd. NPV is calculated from the net cash flow discounted by 10% for each year in the future. Bear in mind this is for the 10 well model only. The full field development will be 30+ wells.

Year Capex Profit Net CF NPV

2024 40 20 - 20 - 18

2025 25 35 10 8.1

2026 20 30 10 7.3

2027 40 45 5 3.3

2028 0 40 40 23.6

2029 0 28 28 14.8

2030 0 20 20 9.6

2031 0 14 14 6.0

2032 0 10 10 3.9

Total 125 242 117 58.6

The Total NPL is pretty close to that in the presentation of 58.3.

A couple of comments. The first year Capex is 40 million. Does this mean they plan to drill 4 wells in the first year? Or are there other infrastructure costs. The break even point is in the fourth year. All the Capex is in the first 4 years. After that, it is all profit.

Of course if all goes well, the full field development will go ahead and they will be drilling more wells before the profit begins to decline and also more Capex. The overall NPV will be much greater.

Of course this is all for the base case. If results were to move even part way to the Upside case, returns could be much greater.

The cash flow in the early years emphasises why they need a really good jv dealm

Will post the upside numbers later.

I live in Surrey, but we love the North York moors. Lots of great scenery and great pubs.

Why Steven, what's going to happen again? Lol.

Why Steven, what's going to happen again?

Why Steven, what's going to happen again?

Not sure it is possible to day trade this. Tiny movements and a large spread.