Member Info for gordon1237

Exactly VF. Hence my annoyance that they implied the massive reduction in NPV was due to tax etc

Atb.

Conger. Thanks for your final comment in your last post m

Conger. That is not in any way negative. It is fact, as I see it anyway. I know you are an accountant, so maybe I am missing something.lThis is how I see it.

If all goes to plan after the jv they will own 49 % of Cambay. Therefore , if the 10 billion shares are to be worth 1p each that means the 49 % needs to be worth £100 million and thus 100% to be around £200 million. Surely the value of the company is money in the bank, plus the perceived value of the remaining share?

We know that Roland is hoping that the price of 51% will be a free carry for the first two wells, which is worth $20 million usd. I really hope that or better is achieved. Hopefully, it is possible that with operatorship being included they will add some cash. Surely you are not suggesting 50 million?

So,as I see it, post jv, Syn will own 49 % and no longer be the operator. They may have a few million in the bank. If that was say 5 million that would be great. In that case it would be valuing the 49% at 25 million. We all know it's worth much more than that and ultimately its worth whatever value the market puts on it.

Not sure why you have suddenly become so annoyed about this. Unlike most you have done very well out of this. Wr alway seemef pretty much on the same wavelength.

Also, you feel able to be negative when it suits. Weren't you recently complaining about CCS, delays and dilution

I concede that I do get quite annoyed when people construe what seem like perfectly reasonable points as general negativity. I am actually quite confident that I will make a profit at some point. Atb.

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Lol.

Walkman. Good morning. I presume you are referring to me. I am not a basher as you put it. I still believe this will come good and make us all some money. I have been here for 8 years. Those who have been here a longish time know that I have no agenda other than wanting to make a profit. I am too old to play games.

If you read my posting history you will see that I have been largely positive of late. That certainly doesn't mean I shouldn't comment when the company does something as extraordinary as reducing the predicted profit by up to 90%. Wouldn't be surprised if this wasn't due to the potential jv wanting some more realistic numbers out there. It seems obvious that the reduction is due to the lower assumed high pressure gas price going forward. This is no trivial matter. Just to be clear, I do believe that even the lower predicted profit may well be sufficient to attract a jv and get a good deal.

As a former scientist I find it frustrating when others can't or won't see, what seems to me to be obvious. As for trading, I wouldn't know how. In early 2021 I had been involved for 6 years, had an average of 0.32 and fully expected to lose the lot. The price has been as low as 0.06. Then out of the blue we heard that the company were buying gspc's share and I was able to get out at 0.40

When the price subsequently dropped, I couldn't resist getting back in at an average of 0.19. Probably daft at my age but at that time things seemed to be moving quickly. Don't know if you are aware but originally the first two new wells were supposed to be drilled late 2022 and early 2023. It has been frustrating but hopefully we are now close to the end game.

As for wanting to get in lower, that always make me laugh. I am sure you don't really believe that anything said on here has any effect on the sp. Have recently been tempted to top up, and might still do so depending on events. Probably not sensible, but what's life without a bit of risk or excitement.

That's a bit long winded but I hope you can see my point. I will always post things as I see them. Good or bad.

Good luck to you and all other investors.

Conger. You are of course right that the company is undervalued and it would be great if the sp went to several times what it is now. That's what we are all here for.

However, it is hardly a detail to suddenly reduce the value of the asset by a factor of more than ten.

They then claimed that the difference was due to tax and GOI deductions. That would mean a deduction rate of more than 90%. It seems obvious that the vast majority of the change is due to reducing the assumed high pressure gas price from 40 to 15 usd.

The other errors that have been pointed out may be minor but it does make it seem a bit unprofessional. If the decline rate has indeed changed from 40 to 30%, it takes a few moments to change it to 30, on the graph axis also. I know, I've done it hundreds of times.

Oh btw, since Syn will be owning just under half of the asset Cambay would need to be valued at £200 million for a share price of 1p. Personally, I would be delighted with 0.4p. Atb.

Agreed Jack. These errors info show a slapdash approach. Very unprofessional. If you look at the cash flow chart it is a year or two before it turns positive. So you are right that the first wells can't be self financing. This emphasises why they need a partner to pay for at least the first two wells.

You're right Espen. They can't even get that right.

Also the graphs show the first wells starting in HI 2023. They can't even be bothered to update that.

Hopeless.

Jack. The profit of $58 million is for 10 wells over the life of those wells. I suggest you read the presentation thoroughly.

Also, Jack, you are misunderstanding the decline rate. It is 30 % per annum, so the flow rate is down by about 75% after 4 years. In the presentation for 10 wells it shows the flow rate peaking after a few years and then declining. For a larger number of wells, more would come on line to replace the declining ones.

Hi Jack. A couple of points. The figures from this morning are income not profit. Nevertheless, if they are accurate they should be enough to make the company cash positive. Hard to say how quickly this old depleted well will decline. Also, they have doubled the expected flow rate to 1 mmscfd from the previous 0.5 mmscfd, so who knows. Should find out soonish.

You don't need to extrapolate from this well. The new presentation gives expected profits for 10 wells of $58 million. For 30 wells that equates to

$174 million. That is if you choose to believe any figures they put out. Guess they be more realistic than the previous ones.

Agreed buci. Seems too much of a coincidence that they have made this drastic change as the jv deal gets close. (Hopefully)

Makes you wonder what you can believe, when they overestimate potential profit by a factor of more than ten, and then claim the difference is due to tax.

Oh well, as long as a jv is convinced there is still enough in it. On we go.

Conger. I wish that, because it would be an honest thing to do. Everybody makes mistakes. It wasn't a small mistake. It made a huge difference. That number was quoted on this board many times.

A bit different in science but had I made a mistake of that magnitude, I would have been in serious trouble.

Just wish they'd admit the mistake.

Alan. The drop us much more than pro rata, using 15 instead of 40. The costs are the same, so everything above 15 is all profit.

I am sure that what Briana says is absolutely true, as far as it goes. The 725 is before tax, whilst the lower numbers are after tax. This however ignores the main reason for the drop, the change in assumed gas price.

Received the following reply from Briana.

" The $700m figure is the pre-tax, pre-govt of India take NPV.

The numbers on the presentation are net of tax, net of government of India take."

Doesn't add up. I replied.

" I thought profits were going to be tax free, thanks to the massive inherited loss pool. The reduction in NPV for the base case is 92%. The tax and govt take can't be that much. Surely most of the drop must be due to the big drop in assumed gas price from 40 to 15 usd. "

Not yet Alan. What's it say?

at the end of the day, it may not matter, as long as the jvvid satisfied that they can make good profits. it just seems ridiculous that they would make such a **** up. interesting to see what briana says.