Member Info for golfnut59

Can you imagine Luke working for big pharma and trying to negotiate the acquisition of a drug in clinical trials??!! We’ve seen multiple recent examples of multi £billion deals that big pharma have paid for early stage oncology assets. They certainly aren’t using Luke’s methodology for valuation. !!

I understand that Craneware have exposure to Silicon Valley Bank. Probably worth keeping an eye on this situation

I would not ordinarily invest in a people business that is reliant on a smallish number of "partners" to generate most of the revenues. However, after watching the recent excellent investor meets presentation I am willing to overlook this anxiety and I have taken an initial position. I am reassured by their innovative staff retention strategy, which for the reason I have just described, is key in a business like this and seems to be working. The only negative of this strategy is the dilution it causes. Currently the outstanding share options are very high at 10.8m shares (strike price £3.16). Whilst only a very small number of these are currently exercisable it is important to be aware that over the coming years there will be a significant amount of dilution. Current share count is 42.6m shares so we are looking at an increase in share count of over 20%. This is obviously quite significant so investors should be aware.

I have to say, it was one of the best company presentations I have seen. The management team came across as very credible, extremely focused and determined to succeed. They have set themselves the goal of becoming a $1B market cap company in the next 3-5 years. Whilst this is a stretch I the current growth trajectory and quality of the management team and strategy make me think its doable. In particular, I like the acquisition strategy, which creates the ability to cross sell. Its clear from the numbers that this strategy is proving to be extremely effective and is already bearing fruit.

Past performance of the business has been stellar. The numbers speak for themselves. They are making hefty margins and growing at CAGAR 30%. Whilst, they describe/market themselves as a challenger to the big consulting firms they have very lofty ambitions and hope to emulate the success story of Accenture which IPO'd in 2001 at $14.50 per share. In December 2021 shares in Accenture were trading hands for > $400.

Current price at 500p does not look demanding at c 15 times FY23 earnings. The most recent trading update indicates that current forecasts for FY23 might be on the light side so potentially we are trading on more like 12 - 14 times earnings.

Anyway, I would encourage anyone who has not watched the investor meets presentation to do so. I think Elixirr has the potential to do great things.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=elixirr

Im new to Cizzle and still in the research phase. I notice the test is design to detect stage 1 lung cancer. Does that mean if you are in stage 2 or 3 the test would come back negative?

Cenkos slash their FY24 forecasts down from 7p EPS to 3.6p ! That's a pretty hefty reduction in forecasts. 120p share price that's a forward PE of 33. Looks very expensive to me here unless you believe FY25 will see a very big rebound in earnings. With this in mind I wouldn't be surprised to see the price drop quite a bit further here.

Thanks for the update Charlie. Please let us know if you hear back from Jaz.

Not a very inspiring presentation. I can understand why the market reacted in the way it did. Honestly, I'm hoping for a buy out here asap as I get the gist that the management are tired and out of their depth. The technology is worth way more than the current market cap which should help keep the price from falling too much further.

WTF, Still waiting for the TR1.

If 'something major' is going on, then it should have been RNS'd otherwise the seller is blatantly insider dealing. This, coupled with the fact that who ever is hoovering up all these shares wouldn't not be buying such a large position without inside assurances that all is well. This makes me believe there is nothing sinister going on here. All speculation of course. We await the TR1's

Brilliant work ShearClass. Thank you for taking the time to share your research. I'm looking forward to the TR1's

AZN goes from strength to strength. In my view this is a stonking buy. Over the next 6-18 months, as many of the promising phase 3 trials move into approval, the market is going to realise this is a durable growth story. Currently AZN sits at a discount to similar growth stories in America. Big re-rate coming.

Great digging ShearClass

Agreed. As far as I understand it, in order not to go back to the market for more cash the company have guided they need to achieve their FY23 target of c150k prescriptions. This seems like a stretch but I think it’s possible. However, it’s my understanding that they also require the average prescription price to be c.$240. This seems a stretch to me considering they are currently averaging about $150 per prescription.

True, but you have to take into account the majority of the cash has been used to purchase other businesses. A quick glance over the RNS's and I note 6 acquisitions. Looks to me like TBLD need to consolidate a little here. Stop the acquisitions and get the company into positive cash flow.

I don't have a position in this stock.

What the hell is going on here?? Massive sells going through way below the bid

I've been researching this share recently. I especially like the manner in which the company look after their staff. The only slight concern what portion of their revenues does the hello neighbor franchise make up? Does anyone know. Thanks in advance

Please refer me to the clinical trial where they cured cancer. Thanks I’m advance

Liberum 2023 estimate is:
£120m Revenue
£71m PBT
Assuming tax at 20% that leaves a PAT of c. £56m so a PE of 14.
Alpha normal smash it out of the park and come in ahead of forecasts, so current forward PE for 2023 is probably more like 12 or 13. This is great value especially considering the rate of growth here is phenomenal. Those buying at current prices are getting an absolute bargain imo.

If the patient is resistant to Dox, no ethical clinician is going to propose the AVA6000 trial. All the patients who enter this trial do so because they hope it will extend what little time they have left. "Hope" is central to the journey of any cancer patient. Its often hope that keeps them alive and gives them the strength to endure arduous treatments. For those patients who have bravely enrolled on the AVA6000 trial, it will be their hope, that the minimum result will be a few extra months. For some this hope (however small) may include the chance of extra years of life or even a complete cure. For patients, the efficacy of the trial will be determined through scans. Scans which show tumor regression or at least no more tumor growth give hope. Its unlikely we get any data on the results of these scans, but who knows, maybe AS will surprise us

You could have purchased Moderna Inc in August 2019 for $12. Two years later you could have sold for $497.
No one is saying for certain that Avacta will see a similar price appreciation in such a short period of time. However, it goes to show the kind of rise we COULD see if AVA6000 is successful. So far the signs are good and if the data is a good as we all think its going to be for phase 1a then I think even you will agree the share price is far too low at current levels.