Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Good to see we have broken out on the chart. I expect Alpha to perform quite nicely over the next couple of months. Catalysts inclyde:
> continued buy backs
>new tax year in April with fresh ISA money
>front running the main market listing in May
Congrats to those who saw the opportunity here and loaded up at the bargain basement prices.
Despite missing their ABS targets, they are still growing client balances at a decent pace, suggesting there are plenty of clients wanting to use the service despite earning next to no interest on their balances. This really hightlights what a great service Alpha must have built here.
It appears to me that the market either knows somehting that I don't or they are too thick to figure out that Alpha are making more money than they know what to do with. Its quite clear that Alpha have made an error in reporting interest income in the way they do.
Dallo. The deal might not go through if :
• the lawsuit prevents it from doing so or
• the Karuna shareholders vote against it.
It’s clear there are a lot of disgruntled shareholders who feel the board are materially undervaluing KarXT. If the deal does not go through, I’m pretty sure the Karuna share price and most likely the PureTech share price will react negatively to the news. I will view this as a wonderful buying opportunity as it’s quite clear Karuna is worth at least $14B
Big date for PRTC shareholders on 12th March as that's the day the Karuna shareholders vote on whether to go ahead with the BMS merger. Its well documented that many of the shaeholders believe $14B is selling the company short so the vote is definietly not a formality. In addition, the lawsuit by shareholder Jenkins aginast the company could also throw a spanner in the works resulting in the merger failing. Fingers crossed the deal goes through or I think we will see PRTC sell off a bit. PRTC share price suggests market is certainly cautious and in wait and see mode
Nice write up on PureTech here:
https://uksmallcapstocks.com/f/puretech-health
Its absolute madness that the market gave us the opportunity to load up here under £15. Alpha will be trading over £17 by the end of today so last chance for those wanting to get in or add under £17. Anyone lucky enough to have read all the excellent analysis on here over the last few weeks will realise these are still bargain basement prices. Fill your boots ! Similarly, anyone visiting these pages in the months and years ahead will see what a fantastic opportunity we were all lucky enough and wise enough to take advantage of
Great to see a share buy back programme has been announced. As per my post on the 19th Jan, I suggested the company should be using some of the cash to buy back shares at these ridiculously low prices.
This should put a floor on the share price. I will definitely be adding here again this morning .
I agree with your assumptions @ShearClass.
As with everything Alpha does, the growth of the ABS division has been astonishing. Your logic is sound and I agree with your thesis. Once commercial activity picks up, it stands to reason that account migrations will follow suit. Judging by what he had to say in the podcast you shared, Morgan Tillbrook is no doubt that the ABS division will continue to succeed. I quote:
“Its very much the ambition of ours to become the global leader of banking solutions to the alternative investment market”………”The reputation of Alpha within that space is growing exponentially & we are investing significantly in this opportunity”
Any which way you dice it, the valuation makes zero sense. I keep questioning myself, what am I missing here? What does the market know that i don't? I've come to the conclusion that I'm right and the market is flat wrong hence my reference to the Charlie Munger quote.
I believe the market sold off the stock because:
1) Alpha missed its £117m revenue target for FY23
2) The house broker cut CY24 EPS forecast down from 85.8p to 76.8p
3)the market is unaware of the interest income being earned on client balances. I say this because I cannot believe they would assign zero value to this. Lets face it, with ever increasing balance client balances, even if interest rates were to halve this year, Alpha would still make well in excess of £50m in interest income. Also, lets not forget that Alpha have hedged $400m via an interested rate swap at 4.14%. This hedge runs up until the back end of CY25.
Ignore my last sentence "Other than the fact Morgan Tillbrook is quite possibly the best CEO".....
I was going to write a little more about my thoughts but I pressed send by mistake and I don't think you can delete or edit posts on here. No time now, so i will revisit later
I've not listened to that interview before so thanks for sharing.
I've come away even more bullish on Alpha after listening. Morgan Tillbrook is one hell of a CEO. Under his stewardship I can only see ALPHA going one way and that is up. The opportunity here is huge. As the great late Charlie Munger once said: ""Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble." Im firmly of the belief now is one of those times.
Other than the fact Morgan Tillbrook is quite possibly the best CEO
I also struggle to see the shares falling below the 30 month range.
As far as I'm concerned the company should be using some of its cash pile to buy back shares. At these crazy cheap prices, it makes total sense to me. The £177m cash pile is growing by the day - the company are earning in excess of £1.5m per week in interest!!! Time to start deploying some of it in divis and buybacks
@ShearClass, well spotted. I did account for the £177m of cash.
Its quite clear the sp is being heavily manipulated by the mm's.
Also as you and @Koolhead point out, the reason fro the price fall is probably also significantly to do with funds being forced sellers due to outflows.
I will keep adding here as this opportunity is just too good to pass up