Market won't stay asleep forever7 Oct 2025 10:13
The market is overlooking PureTech, but it won’t stay asleep forever. A similar mispricing was exposed yesterday with Spruce Biosciences. The market had ignored the stock despite stellar news about its drug, tralesinidase alfa (TA-ERT), for Sanfilippo Syndrome Type B. On August 14, 2025, Spruce released five-year integrated clinical data for TA-ERT, revealing a breakthrough for this devastating genetic disorder, often called "childhood dementia." The data showed that the drug halted progression of this terrible disease where children rarely live to see beyond their 15th birthday. There are currenlty no treatments for this disease. Despite this groundbreaking data, Spruce’s stock barely budged. Investors, fixated on the company’s past failures, overlooking the positive news staring smack in the face at them. They were stuck on the company’s troubled history, not its promising future. The turning point came yesterday when the FDA granted TA-ERT Breakthrough Therapy Designation. This external validation jolted the market awake, sending Spruce’s stock soaring over 1,300%. Remember, the trial data was public since August, yet it took an FDA designation to shift the narrative. This is a billion-dollar drug hiding in plain sight. How the hell was the stock priced so low?
Spruce has only $16 million in cash, so I anticipate a capital raise - likely around $50 million - within the next week to fund commercialisation. With FDA approval expected next year, even after the 1,300% surge, the stock could still 4 or 5 x in value from its current $130 share price ($73.42m market cap). This underscores how the market can sleep on exceptional opportunities. I see the same dynamic with PureTech. A Phase 3-ready drug with the best 52-week efficacy data ever for IPF should not be priced this low. Like TA-ERT, it’s a transformative opportunity hiding in plain sight. The market wont stay asleep forever. Full diclosure Im long SPRB.