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Seems likely although a member on here was in contact with TBLD recently (via email) and was told that none of the directors were selling. Either TBLD were unaware of this at the time or they were telling porkies.
Results today read well. This share is at bargain basement levels so I’m not surprised to see the shares are up heavily today
Very shrewd piece of business imo
On 17 February 2023, the Group entered into an interest rate swap for a notional amount of up to $400m to fix the rate of interest receivable on US Dollar cash balances held in respect of the Group's client cash balances. With the interest rate swap, the Group receives a fixed rate of interest and pays a floating interest rate based on SOFR, the difference between the rates results in the Group receiving a fixed rate of interest. The contract commences in August 2023 and expires in August 2025 with a net interest rate receivable of 4.14%. Hedge accounting is applied in accordance with IFRS 9.
It makes me chuckle when investors in companies like ARGENTEX look towards ALPHA when making valuation comparisons. They use various ratios to determine how cheap their investment is compared to ALPHA. The problem is the are completely unaware that in most cases they are comparing their donkey with a racehorse.
As ever, another fabulous set of results for ALPHA. For me, without a doubt the best company on AIM
I referenced your AVA6000 valuation of £90m. I did not remark on your overall valuation of the company. I noted the reasons why in my view your valuation is low and indicated areas that you had neglected or forgotten when making your valuation e.g no consideration of milestone payments was made. Rather than address my points you just seem to be getting rather defensive.
You have put your views out there so don't be surprised if people critique them. I'm trying to have an open and reasoned discussion with you. I started a new thread as your original thread has just turned into a mud slinging contest.
Anyway, thanks for your efforts, you certainly created a bit of a storm on here this am
Luke has opened a good discussion but I disagree with his valuation. £90m for AVA6000 is way too low. I take this view for multiple reasons, a couple of which I will explain below.
One of the biggest issues I have with Luke's valuation is its entirely based on licencing AVA6000 at P2 for a miserly 10% royalty. No mention of milestone payments either. Lets face it, if Alistair Smith did this deal, he would literally be giving AVA6000 away and we shareholders would be livid. I certainly don't think Avacta would have any issue in raising the funds in order to commercialise AVA6000 considering P2 is likely to be pivotal. Even if it meant doubling the share count in order to take AVA6000 to market themselves, this scenario would be infinitely better than Luke's forecast. My point is, which ever route Avacta choose, basing it on a 10% royalty is very pessimistic and in my view unrealistic. At the very least you would expect royalties plus a very hefty upfront payment plus further milestones.
The next gripe I have with his valuation model is based around market potential. He has based his forecast figures on Doxorubicin sales of £1.98bn by 2028 (globenewswire.com). He points out this figure is for 100% market share. Basing his forecasts on this figure is highly floored for multiple reasons. If AVA6000 do take 100% market share then sales will far exceed £1.98bn. Why? Because Dox is an off patent drug that is marketed by multiple pharma companies. As a result, its relatively cheap. AVA6000 will be patent protected. It is therefore reasonable to assume the price of AVA6000 will be at least double the current price of Dox. I'm being very conservative here when you consider the price of other Precision drugs such as ADC's. We must also take into account it is likely a wider demographic of patients will be receiving higher doses of AVA6000 for longer, thus further increasing sales volumes vs standard Dox.
Can you imagine Luke working for big pharma and trying to negotiate the acquisition of a drug in clinical trials??!! We’ve seen multiple recent examples of multi £billion deals that big pharma have paid for early stage oncology assets. They certainly aren’t using Luke’s methodology for valuation. !!
I would not ordinarily invest in a people business that is reliant on a smallish number of "partners" to generate most of the revenues. However, after watching the recent excellent investor meets presentation I am willing to overlook this anxiety and I have taken an initial position. I am reassured by their innovative staff retention strategy, which for the reason I have just described, is key in a business like this and seems to be working. The only negative of this strategy is the dilution it causes. Currently the outstanding share options are very high at 10.8m shares (strike price £3.16). Whilst only a very small number of these are currently exercisable it is important to be aware that over the coming years there will be a significant amount of dilution. Current share count is 42.6m shares so we are looking at an increase in share count of over 20%. This is obviously quite significant so investors should be aware.
I have to say, it was one of the best company presentations I have seen. The management team came across as very credible, extremely focused and determined to succeed. They have set themselves the goal of becoming a $1B market cap company in the next 3-5 years. Whilst this is a stretch I the current growth trajectory and quality of the management team and strategy make me think its doable. In particular, I like the acquisition strategy, which creates the ability to cross sell. Its clear from the numbers that this strategy is proving to be extremely effective and is already bearing fruit.
Past performance of the business has been stellar. The numbers speak for themselves. They are making hefty margins and growing at CAGAR 30%. Whilst, they describe/market themselves as a challenger to the big consulting firms they have very lofty ambitions and hope to emulate the success story of Accenture which IPO'd in 2001 at $14.50 per share. In December 2021 shares in Accenture were trading hands for > $400.
Current price at 500p does not look demanding at c 15 times FY23 earnings. The most recent trading update indicates that current forecasts for FY23 might be on the light side so potentially we are trading on more like 12 - 14 times earnings.
Anyway, I would encourage anyone who has not watched the investor meets presentation to do so. I think Elixirr has the potential to do great things.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=elixirr
Cenkos slash their FY24 forecasts down from 7p EPS to 3.6p ! That's a pretty hefty reduction in forecasts. 120p share price that's a forward PE of 33. Looks very expensive to me here unless you believe FY25 will see a very big rebound in earnings. With this in mind I wouldn't be surprised to see the price drop quite a bit further here.
Not a very inspiring presentation. I can understand why the market reacted in the way it did. Honestly, I'm hoping for a buy out here asap as I get the gist that the management are tired and out of their depth. The technology is worth way more than the current market cap which should help keep the price from falling too much further.
If 'something major' is going on, then it should have been RNS'd otherwise the seller is blatantly insider dealing. This, coupled with the fact that who ever is hoovering up all these shares wouldn't not be buying such a large position without inside assurances that all is well. This makes me believe there is nothing sinister going on here. All speculation of course. We await the TR1's
AZN goes from strength to strength. In my view this is a stonking buy. Over the next 6-18 months, as many of the promising phase 3 trials move into approval, the market is going to realise this is a durable growth story. Currently AZN sits at a discount to similar growth stories in America. Big re-rate coming.
Agreed. As far as I understand it, in order not to go back to the market for more cash the company have guided they need to achieve their FY23 target of c150k prescriptions. This seems like a stretch but I think it’s possible. However, it’s my understanding that they also require the average prescription price to be c.$240. This seems a stretch to me considering they are currently averaging about $150 per prescription.
True, but you have to take into account the majority of the cash has been used to purchase other businesses. A quick glance over the RNS's and I note 6 acquisitions. Looks to me like TBLD need to consolidate a little here. Stop the acquisitions and get the company into positive cash flow.
I don't have a position in this stock.