Advice for a newbie gold investor14 Feb 2021 08:52
Despite being an experienced investor I have never owned a gold company until now. I took a position on Friday in Landore after digesting what I thought was an excellent RNS. Its only a small position to start with as I have minimal experience in analysing gold companies. I'm taking the time to research the sector with a view to hopefully adding to my LND position as a gain more understanding of the investment opportunity on offer. Since I'm not au fait with some of the terminology used in gold mining/exploring, I have written a quick summary in lay terms of the investments case as I see it. I would be grateful if those with a lot more knowledge than me (most of you on here) could scan over what I have written, correct me where appropriate and maybe add a bit more meat to the bone.
As far as I can make out, LND own a potentially multi-million oz gold resource in Ontario, Canada. To date they have discovered a confirmed 1m ounces of gold. Despite the low grade, the resource can be mined relatively cheaply since its open pit. Over the last few months the company have been further drilling the resource. The drilling has been split between 1) Infill drilling at the location of the original gold find, the aim of which is to increase the 1m oz to 1.3m oz. 2) drilling at a new location along the strike
The latest update showed that the recent drilling campaign has hit gold at the new location as well as hitting gold at a greater depth at the existing confirmed resource. We will find out in the next few months of the size of the upgrade once the new discoveries are defined. Over the coming weeks and months, we will be getting back the assay results from the lab which will be used to make this calculation. Its very encouraging that the most recent assay results all showed the presence of gold, some of which were at very good grades - apparently !
The gold deposit extends along a 31km strike which is 100% owned by LND. To date they have only drilled c. 1/4 of this. Due to the successful drilling campaigns and a similar geology along the strike, it stands reason that there could be further discoveries, suggesting the resource has multi million oz potential. I notice some on here are suggesting the total resource has the potential to be north of 5m oz's. In addition, the site has other deposits inc Nickel which could be explored.
The project is run by Bill Humphries (CEO). After Bill's success at Brancote Holdings (1999 – 2002), he is now applying the same successful business model to LND. Eric Sprott is a Canadian billionaire and gold expert, he has taken a 10% stake in LND.
The Broker, Cenkos has a NPV5 of £211m – I believe this only takes into account the 1m oz of confirmed gold deposits and assumes a gold price of $1,650/oz. Further defined resource will increase the NPV. Using a discount to NAVx 0.25, the broker has a current fair value at £59m/64p per share.
In a nut shell, that's the investment case as I see it. Comments wel