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In December, Jefferies upgraded Bristol Myers Squibb to "buy" from hold based on their sales forecasts for Cobenfy. They raised their price target by $7 to $70. This equates to an additional $22 Billion in market cap.

The brokerage has forecast that Cobenfy will ibecome a $10 billion-plus product.

Jefferies noted positive momentum from recent launches, including Cobenfy’s label hitting best-case scenarios, and projected stronger-than-expected sales for 2024 and 2025.

It also expressed optimism about Cobenfy’s Alzheimer’s psychosis trials, assigning a 70% probability of success for a key Phase 3 study, and pointed to the drug’s potential efficacy in bipolar disorder, with trials expected to begin in mid-2025.

This is obviously incredibly bullish news for PureTech, yet since the Jefferies upgrade, the share price of PRTC is down 15%. This tells me that the market is quite clearly completely oblivious to the fact PRTC still own a decent size stake in Conbenfy.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jefferies-upgrades-bristol-myers-squibb-174803215.html

Agreed JSB. Seaport is undoubtedly the jewel in the crown, and the Board has been quite open about this. The fact that Daphne left to lead Seaport speaks volumes about its potential. This move is further validated by Steven Paul joining as MD. For those unaware, Steven Paul was the former CEO of Karuna and managed the $14 billion sale of the company to Bristol Myers.

It's astonishing to consider that with the current market cap, covered entirely by cash plus the anticipated royalties and milestones from Cobenfy, investors are essentially getting ownership in Seaport and the rest of PureTech's pipeline at no additional cost. If you were to purchase the entire company at today's market cap, not only would you be getting the company for free, but PureTech would essentially be paying you to take it off their hands. This situation is frankly absurd.

Current Pipeline with my estimates on clinical trial readouts. Plenty of value drivers to look forward to in addition to news from Bristol Myers with regard to Cobenfy sales.

Do you agree with the following:

LYT100, P3 2027

LYT200, P1B - 2025, P2 likely to readout in 2027

SPT300, P2B - 2026 (potentially registration enabling)

SPT-320, P1 - 2026

VE303, P3 - 2026

VE202, P2 - 2025

VBP101, P1/2A - 2025

VBP301, P1/2 - 2025

I found the markets reaction to the LYT100 news incredibly baffling. It led me to question, what does the market know with regard to IPF that I don’t. So I spent a few hours researching many of the alternative IPF drugs that are currently undergoing clinical trials. I discovered that whilst there are likely some promising new drugs coming (subject to approval) in most cases: 1) they are best used on top of the existing soc 2) efficacy data from the phase 2B LYT100 is unmatched.

I was expecting to find a candidate where the trial data to date is so impressive that it looks almost certain its going to make the current soc and LYT100 largely obsolete if approved. My research tells me, that this is very unlikely. Therefore, should LYT100 replicate its phase 2B results in a phase 3 trial, it is highly likely it becomes the soc. If not, at the very minimum, I expect LYT100 becomes a commercial drug (in a multi $billion market) giving clinicians another effective treatment option in treating IPF.

Based on the market cap of puretech I would say the market is placing a near zero chance that LYT100 becomes a commercial.

So what gives ? What have a missed? Someone please make it make sense.

I agree with JSB; Vedanta Biosciences might indeed be a sleeping giant in the biotech industry. To date, they've managed to secure $355.7 million in funding, which is a testament to the robust faith investors have in their potential. One of the key indicators of a promising biotech company is its shareholder register. Having a good shareholder register from specialist companies in the field is particularly significant because these entities are experts who understand the nuances of biotech development. The presence of specialized biotech investment funds and major pharmaceutical companies, such as Pfizer, on this register is a very positive sign. In contrast, non-specific investment houses or funds might not provide the same level of validation. That's precisely what we see with both Vedanta and Seaport

It's astonishing to consider that a potential buyer would likely need to pay far more than PureTech's current market capitalization just to acquire their stake in Cobenfy. This fact alone renders the market cap ludicrous.

Rockefellow, don’t forget about Vedanta. PureTech own 36% of that business, who have raised c. $355m over the last 10 years. I’m sure there is still a sizeable cash pile in this business.

In all honesty I also consider the majority of the $371m due in milestones related to Cobenfy to be as good as cash. If you want to be ultra conservative then allocate just half of this figure. The fact is, Bristol Myers paid $14 billion for that drug. I’m fairly confident they know what they are doing and will be vindicated in that decision. With that in mind, it’s hard to see how all or at least most the milestones are not met in the coming years. We may even get some milestones this year.

This stock is truly a beach ball underwater

Its quite clear the share price is being manipulated. 99.9% of holders are sitting on losses yet there seems to be a never ending sell pressure despite the company having by far its best year on record. It just doesn't stack up. Honestly, I don't care if they push the price down lower as it gives me the opportunity to buy more shares at a better value. As Warren Buffett once said ""If you like the business, then you should love the stock at a lower price. If you like the stock at 30, you should love it at 20."

Another great trading update. Alpha always deliver . Stock is criminally cheap. I’ll be adding again today

The Phase 2b results for LYT-100 were very promising. At a dosage of 825 mg, LYT-100 demonstrated an 80.9% treatment effect compared to placebo, significantly outperforming pirfenidone (the current standard of care), which showed a treatment effect of 54.1%. Additionally, LYT-100 exhibited a more favorable gastrointestinal tolerability profile than pirfenidone. These findings suggest that LYT-100 has the potential to become a standard of care alongside nintedanib in the treatment of IPF, making it highly likely that we will progress to a Phase 3 trial.

However, the market reaction seems to indicate skepticism, as the stock is trading as if the trial results were disappointing. This may be attributed to the competitive landscape in the IPF treatment space. Several Phase 2 and Phase 3 programs are currently evaluating novel therapies for IPF. My research has highlighted two particularly promising candidates:

Nerandomilast: The topline data from its Phase 3 trial met its primary endpoint, and if approved, it is expected to be used in conjunction with existing standard-of-care treatments. The full results are anticipated early this year.

Admilparant: This drug is also showing great promise but is likely to be used alongside current standard-of-care therapies as well. The readout for its Phase 3 trial is not expected until 2027.

In summary, it appears that these new drugs will likely complement rather than replace current standards of care, so they shouldn't pose a direct threat to LYT-100.

Can anyone provide additional insights on this situation? What might I be missing? I'm trying to understand why the market reacted negatively despite such strong news for PureTech and those suffering from IPF.

I'd like to know who the hell is selling? There seems to be a never ending sell pressure on this stock, which is perplexing considering c. 99% of the holders must be underwater. We are currently trading at prices we haven't seen since 2018. To put things in perspective the price of Puretech stock this day exactly 7 years ago was £1.29 which equated to a market cap of £306m. Market cap as of close of business yesterday was £335m. Please make it make sense.

The only way you can arrive at the current valuation is to be of the opinion that : 1) BMS made a big mistake in buying Cobenfy as you believe sales are likely going to dissapoint. 2) PureTech are going to burn through most their cash on a pipline of drugs that (in your view) are unlikely to produce a winner.

Apologies. Im being an idiot, ignore my valuation workings completely.

Not sure if your workings are correct @Ivesthome. By my reasoning the correct post money valuation for Seaport is $613m.

PRTC invested $14.4m & held 36.7% ownership afterward = $14.4m/0.367 = $613m. PRTC stake is therefore woth approx $225m

In the H1 report, the company guided that they will have $320m of cash at year end after paying a $40m tax bill in relation to Karuna. The $320m does not include any potential capital inflows prior to year end. We have since seen a $29m milestone in relation to FDA approval of KarXT meaning the year end figure has now increased to $350m.

With a further $370m of milestones to come from KarXT, Im confident PureTech will receive a pretty decent chunk of this over the next 18-24 months. Im speculating here, but lets say Puretech receive $200m in milestones over the next 2 years, that gives us c. $550m of cash to burn through over the next 3 years. For reference, the cash burn in H1 24 was $66m . This also fits with PureTechs guidance that they are funded for the next 3 years at least.

Despite the strong cash position, it is possible PureTech could turn to the market to raise cash next year. If so, they will do the raise on NASDAQ in order to get better liquidity on this market as well as get in some specialist US investors onto the register. This will obviously beef up the balance sheet to the extent they will probably be able to keep 100% ownership of LYT-100. Obviously the comapny don't have to go down this route, its just an option. Therefore, citing cash issues as a reason for the SP collapse is wide of the mark in my opinion.

I think the weak share price is due to: 1) lack of liquidity on NASDAQ meaning the majority of the trading is done on the London market where there is little appetite for this kind of investment. 2) a persistent seller. Considering > 95% of shareholders are underwater at current prices it makes lttile sense why the selling pressure would be so heavy especially after recent news which unlocked $400m of milestone payments for the company 3) I think the market is completely clueless about the significance of the KarXT approval. Cobenfy as it has now be named, is going to be one of the biggest selling drugs in the world and PureTech own a slice of it. Respected analysts have peak sales forecast at $10 Billion per annum. Remember, PureTech own 2% of all net sales over $2 Billion. Now just do the maths on this and tell me the current share price makes sense. Even if you say the analyst are out by 50% in their forecasts, the huge revenues coming into PureTech from the sale of this drug is simply not factored in. Again, I can only summise that the market thinks BMS over paid for Karuna and Cobenfy is not going to be the massive blockbuster the analysts are predicting.

Good to see we have broken out on the chart. I expect Alpha to perform quite nicely over the next couple of months. Catalysts inclyde:

> continued buy backs

>new tax year in April with fresh ISA money

>front running the main market listing in May

Congrats to those who saw the opportunity here and loaded up at the bargain basement prices.

Those results were just a joy to read. Anyone willing to hold these shares in the medium to long term is going to be handsomely rewarded.

Despite missing their ABS targets, they are still growing client balances at a decent pace, suggesting there are plenty of clients wanting to use the service despite earning next to no interest on their balances. This really hightlights what a great service Alpha must have built here.

It appears to me that the market either knows somehting that I don't or they are too thick to figure out that Alpha are making more money than they know what to do with. Its quite clear that Alpha have made an error in reporting interest income in the way they do.

Great news this morning. Will be nice to see some large green candles for once.

Dallo. The deal might not go through if :

• the lawsuit prevents it from doing so or

• the Karuna shareholders vote against it.

It’s clear there are a lot of disgruntled shareholders who feel the board are materially undervaluing KarXT. If the deal does not go through, I’m pretty sure the Karuna share price and most likely the PureTech share price will react negatively to the news. I will view this as a wonderful buying opportunity as it’s quite clear Karuna is worth at least $14B

Big date for PRTC shareholders on 12th March as that's the day the Karuna shareholders vote on whether to go ahead with the BMS merger. Its well documented that many of the shaeholders believe $14B is selling the company short so the vote is definietly not a formality. In addition, the lawsuit by shareholder Jenkins aginast the company could also throw a spanner in the works resulting in the merger failing. Fingers crossed the deal goes through or I think we will see PRTC sell off a bit. PRTC share price suggests market is certainly cautious and in wait and see mode