Member Info for Goldenbadger1

Zama projection is around $20 but then the Mexican government is an unknown in 3 years time regarding taxation .

Sea Lion was $45 at the last count .

GEO 101 as you say could be 50mms or 150mm + this is the part of the joy/stress of oil investing .

I read the other day that the Pemex appraisal drill is delayed until March 2019 and that 30% of the field could be in their block , not sure if fact or fiction . Any INFO ?

Grippa these days a long term plan is 6 months , we could have a buy out , share dilution to fund S.L , collapse in oil price , global recession ect so predicting a share price mmm.
As a LTH and retired businessman i trust the BOD will, in 2019 make the correct decisions at the right time for all stakeholders ensuring we are never again bring out the begging bowl due to debt .( TD and RR need to remember those days }
N.b I am looking for £3.50 in May 2021.............. so there you have it my long long term plan . mmmmmm

Zama net to pmo 150m boe Minimum . Capex max $500m to develope 25% share . Shallow water , Qatar investing locally so possible buyer . Un - appraised 40% went for + $400 m and at this point we don't need to sell . Zama apart from the Mexican Govt is twice as profitable as SL possibly many times the risk . There again this is the oil business and you need a pair .

On PMO, as reported in the 2017 year end financials we now have tightening covenants from March 2019 to May 2021 when majority debt is due . There is the risk for Pi.s
I believe our breakeven is around $43 so with an ave of $63 {bod predicted $70 } for 2019 we should have debt at max 2.0b by end of year .
As stated previously Tolmount is the banker $100m capex for a project the size of Catcher which cost $1.5 b . Tolmount should be brought into full production within 20 months as the debt risk remains with PMO until this point .
Zama has the possibility to change the Pmo financial picture drastically, with an in the ground value of between $3 - $7 once appraised . IMO. Selling Zama at a decent price allows all the other projects to move forward and remove the debt threat . Zama 1.0b minimum . JMBT

With shale debt running at around $600b, global oil needs to be very careful . Selling to the oil majors BP ect the US spreads the risk both financial and environmental . I wouln 't touch it with a barge pole, the 2008 financial crash became a global problem as US bad debt was packaged up and sold around the globe to greedy bankers who did not perform due diligence . IMHO .

Agree with SK and Cash , we have been to the brink Feb 2016, caused by Solan, oil drop, and poor decision making .

We have the opportunity to reduce debt to a level for survival in a 2008 style financial meltdown.

After evaluation sell total Mexican prospects and pay down debt .

Growth from Tolmount ,Indonesia , Catcher area and in 2 years Sea Lion will drive bottom line for Shareholders

Last Dividend 5p 2014 according to spending plan next one 2024 .

TD like May and Trump needs to make a critical decision or two, that could make PMO or break us . In the current unpredictable climate this is when TD earns his £1m + package ( more than the Pm ).
So come on T.D show the shareholders your batting for them no more loans, dilution and get the debt below 1.7b year end 2019 . I will then support a motion to name an oil rig in your name .

Dont take an average for the year at 19p as a base, only people in the know were buying at 19p ,an average for that year was probably where we are now 67P therefore 0% growth in 3 years
.
We are in a sorry state with dilution for pi's at more than 50% plus 520m shares to 817m.

Why do we hold? Well can it get any worse ?

I am however a realist , this can only get better .Ho Ho Ho

Two possibilities
1. Increasing to loan out shares returns are market beating on PMO .
2. Investing in company as see a quick killing possibly Zama .
Either way they are on a winner .
Basil great detail last night on Chrysaor and Solan . Maybe they buy the N sea assets and settle there debt with giving us Elgin - Franklin . lol

Cheers Basil your insight is missed on here , always interesting views .

When are you back in PMO and how is Roy doing ? Hope to see his hand in 2019 for the sake of all pi's.

The transaction i remember was June 2nd 2015 where it was stated , Chrysaor loan $530m plus interest on PMO books
I may have missed this payback to PMO or did they just give us Solan ?
My memory is not what it was so happy for info SK you were around at this stage .

Chrysaor were pmo partners in Solan.

Don't they owe us one huge favour ? OR was it $500m ?

TD projections June 2018 based on $65 oil and in with hedges placed my money is on $400m reduction .
.Q1 2019 the goalposts appear to be moving moving from a committed convenant ratio of 2.5 to 2.7.
As previous get 2019 and 2020 hedges in at 70% of production on next oil spike at $75 boe . Takes all the risk out .....barring Catcher running dry.

Ahem ! last line should read Catcher ... blindsided by otters .

TD earlier in the year stated at $65 oil pmo debt would be reduced by 300m-400m by year end . As we should achieve $70 i would expect min of $2.4 year end excluding Pakistan sale . Oil only below $70 for 6 weeks 16% down . Gas price same period price grew 34% . As in 2018 we are approx 48k oil and 34k gas i assume the gas will bring us in .Hedges are in place for both over this last Q so should be better end of TD prediction .
NB . Project 2019 60k oil and 30k gas taking into account Tolmount and disposals .

Agree with Ovets . Zama worst case is 100m boe to PMO, best case 400m Net . At between $5-7 in the ground, you can do the maths . Also package up, after appraisal the balance of our Mexican prospects to sell, as selling our share in Zama for a huge profit we would no longer be flavour of the month!
IF we could net $800 to 1.5m that indeed would be the Game changer for PMO . IMO .

Agree with Ovets . Zama worst case is 100m boe to PMO best case 400m Net . At between $5-7 in the ground you can do the maths . Also package up after appraisal the balance of our Mexican prospects to sell, as selling our share in Zama for a great profit we would not be flavour of the month. IF we could net $800 to 1.5m that indeed would be the Game changer . IMO .

Anyone tracking our shorting friends latest moves ?