Member Info for Goldenbadger1

On the financials of Hurricane , the Debt due July 2022 a Convertible Bond $230m with Qtr payments in arrears at 7.5% .
Approx $18M pa . So a liability of $266m over next 2 years .
Interesting point in 2019 financials .
'Repurchases of the Bond AHEAD of maturity could also be considered given the Additional benefit of reducing future Coupon requirements ' .
With cash presently at +- $190m the possibility above , resulting in minimal dilution could be considered again in Jan 2021 after hopefully stabilty returns .
The CMD tomorrow and the size of the present production field , could be a Game changer for Hurricane .
You have to be an extreme Optimist to be invested in the market and in Oil investment ........ Steel ......s

As an investor and failing miserably at averaging down here and in Pmo , i look at the CMD to deliver one critical piece of news.
Confirmation that the present Lancaster wells sit on + 180mboe of productive formation or can be connected cost effectively . The aforementioned will deliver 40k boepd (14 m pa )for the next 10 years, crucially with minimum capex. Thereby de-risking to a great extent most other factors of debt and the possibility of another Solan (PMO).

Apologies price based on Platt formula so forget hedging .
Will we see action at 4.30 today prior CMD news ?

The total cost to business based on $26 boe as quoted in year end report , as not paying CBs has dire consequences .
Very interesting agreement formula with BP, as Hurricane price realised will be difficult to calculate as variables include BP 2020 Hedging and impact for HUR .

Thanks adoubleuk had a look previously will re-look .

Fag packet calculation : Total Company costs 2020 $180m based on production of 7.0mboe .
Brent Q1 ave $50 . Rev +- $90m.
Brent Q2 ave $25 . Rev +- $45m
Brent Q3 ave $25 Rev +- $45m
Brent Q4 ave $35 Rev +- $60m Total Revenue $240m probably best case at this point .

Has anyone detail of the offload agreement with BP, regarding price paid on delivery and volume covered ?
As Hurricane is now in the production business , was there any Hedging in Jan/Feb for 2020 ?

Option 2 we sell our Solan processing capacity to Hurricane as i think close enough to pipe from Lincoln once proved up . If Hurricanes 2b+ fields are proven up the only limitation apart from early cash flow is processing capacity . Finally Solan could become very economical .
There's plenty on the table presently that we cannot afford so this option gets us to Tolmount .
1. Tolmount when on stream 30k per day . Dana selling $200m . 50%
2. Catcher on stream 33k per day Mol price $400- $500m .
3. Spirit Energy on stream 35k per day Bayern 31% $600m .
So if pmo picks up Strathmore and gets Solan right $50m tops .
just a thought .........

Reckon that on Thursday we may see news on a pmo deal with Hurricane regarding either Solan and or Strathmore where Hur is giving up the licence .
The possible resources for Solan are +- 45mboe , Strathmore 55mboe combined another Catcher . The Strathmore field is next to Solan and not part of Hur plan .
We already have on site a processing capacity of 35k per day and both fields have been previously drilled, so if with new tech we cant find the oil we are in trouble . I believe we can and capex wise this would be an extremely cheap option for 30boe per day . We already have a drill planned for Q1 2020 .

Santa Tony delivers the following :
1. Tolmount reserves in line with expectations or better .
2. Zama packaged and sold for min $400m .
3. Solan agreement with Hurricane to share infrastructure and Dr T give assistance with next drill at Solan to find missing 50m Boe's in area . Making Solan finally profitable .
4. Debt year end , below $1.5 b ( after Zama sale ) and financing thereafter by 2 U.K. banks only .... with overdraft at max 4% interest for a $2.0 b overdraft facility to ensure we can finance Sea Lion . No other financial structuring !
5. Pmo 2020 Share price on Oil at $60 ..... above 1.30p . By Feb 2020 .

And most importantly goodwill to all after a very Difficult year .

My thoughts on Ceo's are very simple . Basic market related package at beginning , any other payouts based on share price performance over 3, 5, 7 years then Ceo leaves . TD and BOD fall on this point as have received rewards for zero return to shareholders . It is wrong ...... that Fred the Shred , Green , Thomas Cook Execs , Conn at Centrica all have reaped huge reward for failure . So ..........TD needs to deliver to shareholders full stop .

I think i have a dose of the T.D.s ..... Members lol .

As a LTH and suffering with all on here last few days , this kak share has i am sure aged me rapidly over last few years . However ..... just a thought .
Previously i would demand debt reduction based on Zama sale of $400-$500m as a priority, removing many shorters . There is however an opportunity with buying the Bayerngas 31% share of Spirit Energy , producing net 40k boepd. For sale at around $500m .
The beauty of this is we get production , good licence options and most importantly a foot in the +2.2b boe Hurricane fields .

PMO Debt will be sub $2.0B year end and this transaction would accelerate debt reduction significantly . The deal would also benefit Solan with use of the underwater storage facility , thereby improving profitability on our White Elephant . that is Solan Just a thought ....

I used to think like that H , until i realised Ceo's are not stupid at all, as they usually leave having trouser'd millions in pay, bonus' and Golden handshakes .
Most just repeating the exercise if young enough , Green and Fred the Shred ect spring to mind . Many Ceo's also believe that they cost cut to profitability ,which any idiot can do basically, usually strangling the business .
The Strategy is geared to produce efficiency's whilst growing revenue , market share and profit . Millions are paid to Ceo's for the aforementioned knowledge and skills they bring to setting and delivering that Strategy .
Therefore CEO'S should only be rewarded by share price growth over an extended period and paid out at the end of their tenure ...... max 7 years . Conn in this case would have only received basic pay at this point and should the CNA strategy succeed in next 24 months he qualifies for a pay out . If not , tough for him and rest of Bod . CEO'S have very little risk going into the position as most are already wealthy ( Generalisation ) so risk/reward needs to re-focused with medium term delivery .

One or two positives . CNA share of Spirit increased in value , with Oil price rise next week and Hurricane drill results gaining traction with + 2 Billion BOE's being proven up presently.
Also just to make it interesting a Beast from the East being forecast . ..............All risks to shorters IMO .
Apart from aforementioned Conn needs to clear debt .... simple . This will sort out Shorters .

PMO have a window next week .
Hedge H1 and H2 2020 production 80% if possible between $70- $80 . We then have Tolmount on line .
Trade Zama for producing North Sea assets in next 4 weeks with rise in price . We will get more for an asset swop than cash .
The Hedges will de-risk debt .

If Nuclear assets and Spirit energy sales rake in around 2.5b as they should , majority goes onto Debt reduction bringing debt below 1.5b. That's now Conn's focus (or should be)
Thereafter targeting debt below 1.0b by June 2020 , CNA will then not be going further into a high risk Strategy with high debt and interest payments .
With Nuke , Oil and Gas holdings for sale , part of these sale agreements should contract supply options at favourable rates for 5/10 years this would allow CNA breathing space to cement new strategy or kick into touch, if after 18 months it has failed .
Zero bonus' and increases should be paid to BOD until share price has recovered to Pre - Conn levels . If they choose to leave no golden handshakes . Any new blood is given a Market related salary with anything else based on Share price performance . IMHO .

Based on trend and oil ave at around $60 ,Pmo should hit $1.7b Revenue 2019 with Net profit after tax $250m a solid result .
As discussed previously refinancing at around 5% net would add $100m to the bottom line .
Selling Zama , farming out Sea Lion and re-financing are critical as our net position presently is $8 net profit (after tax) boe based on $68 oil . H1 2019 .

Tolmount East , only October for comms i believe. Catcher and other reserves added year end .
The Q at the moment is how much to leave in the game until after Oct and the Market manipulation of ......... Deal - No Deal . Settled on 30% off ....but who knows..... outside MM'S .

PMO Oil production H1 should be around 10m ( oil only ) at $67 and as stated by TD giving a 30% margin improvement .
Gas even though hedged , at 30% of production will eat some of that margin .