Member Info for Goldenbadger1

Zama valuations range from $300m- $600m . Personally think if we cant get $600 m keep it .

Tolmount is the key for PMO as low capex good margins even at low gas prices . As we cannot afford to buy anything the option is try and get Tolmount into full production by Q3 2020 pre winter not Dec 2020 with first gas .
The capex may increase slightly with pushing overtime but the winter full production will cover that . Concerning that Big-p has been quietly slipped into Q4 now from Q3 previously .

Earlier in the day we were looking at where PMO may go in the next 24 months . Looking at the warrants outstanding and based on trend we are looking at around 1.1m shares in issue by May 2021. A prediction/observation made by a couple of people August 2017 at refinancing , a 100% dilution ....... Shares in issue Aug 2017 511m , Aug 2019 830m and counting with 52% of warrants exercised so 48% STILL outstanding .
2017 and 2018 PMO paid out 329m and 373m net interest and finance costs , recovering 350m through asset sales . The issue of 220 m shares plus cash to the remaining warrant holders by May 2021, should cover some of the interest /finance costs over the next 18 months of around 300m .
With Pmo Debt probably below 2.0b in Jan 2020, its critical we get simple bank financing at 3-4% , no warrants, no 9% deals ect . Thereafter Pmo have to start delivering shareholder value as promised , through share price growth .
1p Divi's will not cut the mustard as effectively with 100% dilution the Pi's have paid for poor risk management and the survival of this company ..... unless i am completely wrong ! Enjoy the weekend . Well done Wales .

Tolmount a low capex , low risk , high return asset has 500 bcf , Tolmount East 250 bcf and Far East 150 bcf . At this point with PMO still struggling to pay debt , fund Zama and Sea Lion and most importantly show share price growth .

Surely a low capex 2nd production platform on Tolmount East would give PMO the cash flow required at low risk to pay debt down between the 2 fields with approx 60k boepd leaving the balance of company production to fund Sea Lion and Zama ect ect
PMO retain all the assets to grow production medium term and sort out the short term risk presently crippling the share price . AIMHO

Thanks Mrd , Suresh , Love you , sound points .
Maybe a little clarity on the deal between PMO and RKH .As i understood PMO lend RKH the development carry of $750m to be repaid from profits on production . Is that correct ?
Yes Sea Lion is probably 20 times larger than Solan but i still have mares over our deal with Chyrsaor also paid back out of production and a 19p share price that went with it .
That is why guys/gals i don't stress tooo much over days like today. This share is a real challenge and if you can live with it for another year and we get a decent refinancing ,we are A for Away . On RKH as with PMO look after the shareholders and employees by bringing them into the fold for a win win . Stronger together no duplication of well paid exec's .

Decision time this Q2 and time to contemplate Rockhopper deal .
To refresh the memory Guardian 12th July 2012 .
PMO have purchased 60% of Rockhoppers interests in the Falkland Isles for $231 m upfront payment and $770 m more when the plans are approved .

60% of around 500mboe

Rockhopper Market Cap £105 m with 200mboe . Is there a better time to buy them, as once we sign up this sounds like another Solan financial deal ?

With the recent movement of certain majors back into the N sea, BP declared they are looking at production of around 200k in the N.sea going forward .
With PMO having many large projects lined up Globally and needing a strategic British partner in the Falklands, we are an ideal takeover target for BP in my opinion .
£2 should do it .Although If we can get to end 2020 with Tolmount in full production , refinanced at 3% ,no dilution, we should be valued £3 + .Maybe we can assist each other in some trade off of fields where we cull our debt in the deal
Just a thought as all the Falklands action is now kicking off .

With that many shares and the rest of the Bod also well paid and having shares, maybe they should stop giving themselves easy targets and putting through pay increases and bonus' .
Until the share price increases a minimum of 20% p.a from £1.20 then they can wait until A positive refinancing as it looks like the Pi's will have to .

Shareholder value is at this point just a statement on a Flip chart .

The plan is sound we need a "Win Win "......TD ....

The article on" revolt over exec pay" reads like a government investigation........... i.e " kick the can down the road and by 2020 when this issue returns maybe the share price will have solved the problem " Anyway tell us about it until then and we will listen but do S.F.A.

NO wonder Corbyn and his cronies have a stick to beat capitalists with .

Pmo pay policy should read " You will start on a Market related salary and all increases or bonus payments thereafter will be as a direct result of Share price performance over a sustained period . With the aforementioned audited by Shareholder appointed auditors "

Simple we all then have skin in the Game and no distraction's . Problem solved .

Positives :

Possible Refinance 2020 to remove present unsatisfactory finance costs ect . Boost to Pi's i believe finally !

Hedging out to end 2020 on good pricing , need to build to 50% for 2020 at min $69 .

Zama evaluation complete June '19.... Pemex not a problem.

Debt reduction, even with front loaded capex and importantly interest payments made in this period also front loaded .

Tolmount and Mexico further appraisals adding to an already great portfolio of prospects.

Difficult decision on Sea Lion may be dependent on Block 30 , if as discussed another Zama, then fund SL through Zama sale . Problem solved .....

Baillie Gifford with 10.21% the single biggest shareholder of Pmo, would be very good as an activist . Obviously having recently increased that investment they are very confident .

Anyone with any knowledge on B G and why they believe in Pmo and TD ?

Agreed Ribeye we will lead them by the nose until we have served our purpose. They have form .

Anyone have any thoughts on the implications to the Zama project of Pemex not drilling their well . Have they no money or is it a purely poor management ?
Maybe a sign to sell our interests before we become part of that particular circus .

100% Red . Our financiers have PMO until May 2021 when we can gain back control of the company . Until that point we are at risk and i believe as we extract ourselves our financiers would like nothing better than to lock us into another deal like this one with 7.4% interest and zero risk to them . TD should pull his horns in get $70 hedges in place and sit tight .
Not to hopefully contradict my last statement , if Catcher deal with Mol can be done for - $300m then ok .

£££££££ NOT $$$$$$

Love-you...... sound post i agree with your valuation and with oil now around $74 we should be de-risking and hedging at $70 up to Q4 2020
.
Tolmount and May 2021 refinancing will move PMO on fundamentals to $3.50- $4.00.................................................
IF Zero dilution prior to 2021 .

Hawkey It is a guessing game on why we have been managed upwards in bands present band 100-105p

1 Possible set up for Ineos , Delek or Chralor hostile takeover we are being kept ridiculously cheap .

2.GS assisting with taking risk out of short positions for customers .

3.GS acting with PMO to finalise outstanding creditors financial instruments and close them .

4. None of the above they are looking to influence a future vote on a PMO issue .

Not an expert so ......... i am but guessing .

Just a thought .

2018 hedges delivered a net $63.5 for production 80k, not bad considering low hedges .

2019 hedges are significantly better at 40% @ $69 , so PMO have learnt something from Tullow,

As we know $45 is breakeven and our business modelling is based on a $65 net 2019 figure .
We should have delivered most of our hedges in Q1 at $69 if we were sharp enough . In Q2 we should be selling at market levels of $70 + and with this, H1 should be in the bag at around $69 net.
If my limited understanding of hedging is correct .

With oil running between $70- $75 in Q2 , PMO i would presume, should be pushing $70 hedges for H2 as a priority. Achieving a $70 average for the year, rather than $63.5 of 2018 .This reduces the risk of any debt issue substantially and leaves only 2020 as a high risk year .
At a risk of repeating myself , 70% hedges for 2020 @ $70 + would remove 90% of the risk in this share . I believe our poor share performance is still based around our refinancing when the Pi's were bent over and thrashed to save the company .
Pi's had to deal with 300m extra shares , Cb's , 7.4% interest , huge fees for refinance , Creditors dictating operational issues eg Hedging and many other sweetheart deals .
TD and the BOD have looked after all the above and themselves and credit to the guys for EON and Zama while under the Creditors Hammer........ fantastic .
The promised land is now within reach, in May 2021 we are finally free from this Desperate Debt trap and can refinance at around half the present rate . I believe as a LTH Pmo has huge potential which is why i remain invested .TD and the BOD need to deliver returns via growth in share value for long suffering Pi's, achieved by sound, low risk financial performance paying down the debt and hedging .
Zama lets take too production , low capex , low risk $450m for 43k boepd . Will also guide us on Block 30 and Brazil Enough ....... good luck all ..

Agreed Love you . Projects Big p, Tolmount ,Solan , Zama and Sea Lion can be game changing to share price . i would prefer a significant increase in share value however instead of a dividend . As important as project delivery and production, PMO have to ensure in 2021 May we remove ourselves from our present financiers . The present control and structure of the re-financing is key to our share non performance . As stated when oil hits $75 + we get our hedging in place at $70 .We then remove the risk to a great extent in this share . In May 2021 we will have Debt at $1.5 b and can refinance based on Tolmount full production at around 3% instead of over 7.3% presently .

" Potential"

For LTH'S like moi .

2025 200k production zero debt 800m shares Revenue $4.0 + ..... Why not .....

POSSIBLE :
2020 FIN YEAR : BIG P ONLINE + 3K BOEPD / GAS OIL 55K GAS 25K TOTAL NET 74K REV $1.6B DEBT $1.7B
2021 FIN YEAR : TOLMOUNT +30K BOEPD /GAS OIL 50K GAS 50K TOTAL NET 94K REV $1.9B DEBT $1.5B
2022 FIN YEAR : ZAMA +40K BOEPD/ OIL OIL 80K GAS 50K TOTAL NET124K REV $2.4B DEBT $2.0B
2023 FIN YEAR : SEA LION +50K BOEPD/OIL OIL120K GAS 50K TOTAL NET160K REV $3.2B DEBT $2.0B
2024 FIN YEAR :TUNA + 30K BOEPD/OIL OIL 150K GAS 40K TOTAL NET185K REV $3.5B DEBT $1.5B
2025 FIN YEAR :ANDAMAN + 30K BOEPD /GAS OIL 140K GAS 70K TOTAL NET 200K REV $4.0B DEBT $1.0B
2026 FINYEAR :MEXICO BLOCK 30 +30K BOEPD /OIL OIL 160K GAS 60K TOTAL NET 210K REV $ 4.OB+ DEBT
ZERO .
Risks......
1. Oil price collapse below $50 in next 2 years due to Debt schedule .
Mitigation , Hedge 24 months Oil and Gas 70% at $70 .
2.Oil price collapse after May 2021.
Mitigation , Refinance Jan 2021 at 3.5% v 7.4% max facility $2.0 B.
3. Hostile takeover 2019-2021 . Company undervalued and sold .
Mitigation , Reduce share issue to 800m push price to £1.80 to force a hostile bid to +£2.00 per share .
Just a few Sunday afternoon musings .AIMHO .
I think this is the strategy and yes have used an abacus as quite a few variables lol