Member Info for Goldenbadger1

Thanks Basil puts Mexico tax in perspective ....so Zama is a big thumbs up and Mexico as a whole the dogs b's .

No chance of a straight swop with Chevron - Zama block for 65k NS today with a cash sweetner ?+- $500m ? would make sense for both parties quick clean, tax credits. Similar to BP deal with Conoco Phillips .
If in play , 2019 appraise Block 30 Mexico , Jan 2020 Sea Lion fcf should fund a staggered programme without increasing debt - oil price + $65 .

At Talos CEO Duncan stated ZAMA is a 2.0b boe discovery and with recent positive reports confirming this, PMO are looking at around 300mbs net .Given the following production plan this should net PMO 75,000k boepd .
The early Talos Plan looked at 3 production platforms each capable of 100k boepd . Featuring a single drill centre with wells drilled from the platform .
Oil would be transported via a 70km pipeline to the Dos Bocas terminal located on shore . Full production planned for 2025 with the 3rd well operational was the original plan although Mexican govt requires delivery 'yesterday' .

The Financial note is important in that, ONLY AFTER development costs are recouped by the consortium, will Mexico receive 80% in royalties and taxes on all oil and gas produced .
At 75k boepd PMO would have 10 years production,based on 300mbs net PMO .The biggest unknown remains the Mexican govt ........ however a 3 year payback on a 1.2b ( 25%) capex investment, would be possible thereby limiting the risk .
At $60 oil , the numbers are superior to Sea Lion although both are great assets .
Final note we have close to 2.0b boe either proven,probable or highly possible yet we have high debt and zero finance to extract these reserves we are thus a Prime target for a cash flush O&G midcap .
Exciting Times .

Shocking month to date....... .Only positive Mol Catcher value was a possible $300m + at today's price $200m for the 20% if lucky .

Also Elgin-Franklin 3.7% should now be around $70m max, so maybe work in PMO's favour . If we can grab either of these to enhance production to 2020 and put a lid on rumours then a positive with zero RI .

Interesting Oil majors meeting in Davos to discuss why investors are staying away from oil companies . Unfortunately like most issues they believe it is about green issues aswell as ROI .
At PMO believe 90% the issue is ROI and a balance, in looking after your PI'S v II'S .
Should there be an RI then a little innovation should be applied ,where LTH's are offered a superior deal to newbies to encourage PI'S to become LTH's . PMO as an investment would then seek to become more competitive and secure v banks . Also as a UK strategic asset could lead by example and rebuild trust in Mid cap investments .After all the FI's as strategic assets can never be developed by anyone other than a UK company securing the UK's energy in part along with the NS .
Yes oil price is driven by Market forces but when in debt and under threat , reduce risk implement 70% hedges as price allowed to ensure we reach the Tolmount promised land of 2021 . IMHO.

Jan 2019 80p
Jan 2018 85p
Jan 2017 85p
Jan 2016 30p
Jan 2015 1.79

As stated disappointing to say the least for LTH . Even though most have averaged down

Maverick they need income and investment and have hopefully viewed the Venezuela experiment. Middle ground NEEDS to be found on tax and Roi otherwise they will travel down the same path .
The Mexican's approach so far should give PMO hope as it will be viewed as a test case for both parties.
Strategically we should stay with the Yanks with any project as they hold the pressure points, should it go ' pear shaped'. IMHO . If we do develope both fields in Mexico FI will need to be kicked down the road .

Catcher 21.5k boepd ave
Elgin Franklin 6.7k
Huntingdon 5.8k
Solan 4.6k
Babbage 3.5k (sold)
Kyle 1.6k
Balmoral 1.2k
Ravenspurn 1.1k
Johnson .6k
Scoter .2k

Grand Total 46.8 boepd UK only

As reported : Min recoverable 400 mbs

Net PMO 100mbs ..... one rig cost $1.0 - 1.2b net PMO $250m +

Production 100k boepd . 25k PMO for 10 years ave $20 cost .

Planning for 3x 100k boepd shallow water rigs ,cost to PMO $ 1.0 - 1.3 B .

PMO production by 2023 75k boepd net all based on recoverable reserves of + 1.2m bs recoverable . ( presently stated at 400-800 so 1.2 m is possible )
Just some Sunday morning optimism .

Pi's will need to hold tight in 2019 as the game is on , Goldman , Blackrock ect will be out to vacuum up any cheap shares and a 30% holding appears as with Faroe and Debenhams to be a winning hand .
The last 4 years have been hard work Pis need to stand strong against Algo's , shorters and poor takeover offers just as we see the light at the end of a very very long tunnel .

Spot on Basil with analysis, sell Zama, develope Block 30 and we have a similar opportunity in Brazil

Use Mexico and Brazil to drill appraise and sell . Pay off debt focus on N sea , Asia ,Sea Lion and shareholder value .
The above process of licence, appraise and sell would give a superior ROI to PMO's oil and gas production in the medium term . IMO
.
TD seems to have a recipe that works for great licence deals so once debt is below 1.5b carry on TD .

Pmo has its most profitable oil operation in ROI terms in Vietnam with around 20% of PMO revenue delivering 40% of PMO profit fantastic !

Vietnam would be an excellent investment should we have had available finance . Oh well.

Auson

i would hazard a guess that all the operations Pmo has, are costed in Brent per barrel :

Indonesian Gas, Vietnamese Oil , ect Your company cost per barrel is pretty stable , your variable is your selling price .

Hence PMO breakeven in the new mix has risen from $43 to $45 . Sold off low cost Gas producers so mix changed .

Spot on with your numbers re: debt 2.3b and Revenue 1.4b,..... well done sir .

Looking at 2019 what would you do if TD ?

Solan was put forward for an early work through buying time and covering depletion your thoughts on the other opportunities .

Pmo will take the total portfolio and average it to a Brent Breakeven at $45 including N Sea gas and Asian gas .

Better than expected on debt , improved hedges so positive and upbeat . Well done TD .

Appraised resources remaining +- 35mbs Recoverable ??

300,000 Barrel storage facility in place .

Tested working / failed technology giving insight into problems and opportunities

Written down in book . Scheduled for workover in 2020 could be on line in 6 months

Value and sell
or drill again to unlock possible 20k boepd and get us to Tolmount first gas ? Cost of a drill +- 20m
Yes SK i know its a dog ... but we still own it

Nothing exciting on thursday PMO stated debt reduction based on $65 oil at 300m -400m so 2.4 b should be max debt .
Oil only collapsed last 6 weeks 2018 and Babbage went through possibly .

Alpha just the highlights on thursday , full financials later. Q1 in April .

2019 PMO Oil 60k Gas 25k without additions guidance 80-85k .

2.4 Debt
Production 80k
Ave Oil $70 achieved
No news on Zama
Net profit improvement as Catcher tax credits kick in .
Pakistan sale complete

So you can all now take the day off on Thursday

Agreed r poodle nice options to have . .

Apart from 600m of excess debt we are in a good place .

Ophir and Faroe will be very interesting to watch as takeover targets . The hostile bid from DBNO is especially worth watching as the first offer was rejected and now with a 30% shareholding they are pressing on for a deal .