Member Info for Globex

Fair commentary, it's always good to read the side, the economics of even the best miners are very questionable at best when viewed through a traditional/sensible lens. The one thing I would say is as more of a bet on the future, it fits that any previous quarter will always look bad. All of them are priced to assume bitcoin goes up dramatically, otherwise the market caps are a nonsense (and maybe they are either way).

The shakey financials are at least a known, what is a bit of a concern is this potential US clamp down over increasingly excessive energy use. That government survey could be the start. Really what we have here gents is a giant game of musical chairs.

New article on Candy vs Bonnier saga, new allegations, very messy.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13120907/Property-tycoon-Nick-Candy-takes-aim-fallen-dotcom-star.html

"court documents reveal that Candy has accused Aaqua and Nashida Bonnier of a series of 'artificial trades' of shares in Audioboom in an attempt to boost their value."

"The FCA said it could not comment on 'ongoing litigation', but added: 'We take market abuse concerns seriously.' "

TB has been doing this for years. His classic MO is to dangle the promise of a medical breakthrough and/or commerciality in the near distant (but never quite reachable) future, sell shares into the hype, then rebuy lower into a placing or when sp otherwise bombed out.

Last month Free Association Books reduced from 9.97% to 3.68%, this month they (or a related party) get to buy back at half that price, maintaining their holding plus a nice bit of cash. Occam's razor applies, it really is as it seems.

This guy reappearing has become more of a certainty than the halving. He should have just bought bitcoin around the time he first spoke to the media, been so long would still have made a fortune.

Can't be long now before we also have another rehash of the two pizzas story, if it hasn't already happened, as if that guy doesn't feel bad enough he swapped what went on to be the equivalent of GDP of Germany or something for a Dominos.

Cheers needed that, don't worry I also have a frankly irresponsible level of exposure Mara, exit strategy goes in the bin for now.

Unfortunately AI is a problem for a publisher like Reach. It lowers the barrier to entry for journalism and allows any idiot to put up endless stories online, that's already happening and the competitive field for audience attention is increasing dramatically. Them using AI themselves is akin to admitting defeat, the USP is gone, nobody will pay a premium to read AI articles.

The one hope that remains here is that a media group like Future with the same challenges decides a bit of consolidation is what the industry needs and makes an offer.

Let's be honest when btc retraces significantly we're in for carnage either way, by the time btc losses appear on those quarterlies hope to have long exited.

Clsk is priced for such perfection rationally I should be taking profits, but I also thought that at $12. Timing an exit is tough, it now seems meme-like and is becoming this bull run's people's choice. Under no illusion that when the pullback happens it will be violent.

This will be a gamechanger for miners with decent stacks for sure, appearance wise at least. Optimistic it could be a catalyst by making the decent miners look more investable to normal investors who mind about such arcane things as profit.

btw seeing Clsk surpass Riot market cap yesterday was quite something, bit of an epic run (although tbh now I'm a bit on edge for possible toppyness). Funny though how it was only last summer we were wondering how Riot was #1 market cap, turns out simply market was wrong lol.

Frasers stake building significant news. With such a low market cap and very little free float could get pretty perky here.

The smoking gun here is that they didn't conduct a proper competitive sales process for the operating company. They would have had cash flow forecasts indicating way in advance that the cash was going to run out, giving them ample opportunity.

Instead by leaving it right until the last minute, to the point where cash almost completely depleted, the impression is that they are trying to force shareholders' hands to gain the assets on the cheap.

For what it's worth with TB Braveheart and IQAI offer an insight his typical MO, their offerings are nebulous enough for him to be able to routinely tease jam tomorrow, offload shares at a premium, buy back when bombed out or via placing when they inevitably fail to deliver, rinse repeat.

He bought in here flush with cash from RMS/Braveheart perhaps with a bit of nostalgia plus invincibility believing he could rescue it after BorgWarner pulled the plug, and to be fair he has given it a decent stay of execution with a fair bit of financial engineering.

Beyond that the challenge is having bought in he can't use his usual jam tomorrow trick because the products are too tangible, there's no medical breakthrough implied in the near but never quite reachable future, nobody is going to get overly pumped up about iron castings. So he's a bit stuck and for once it's him that's fallen victim, just to himself and a case of sunk cost fallacy.

You can get clearer than that actually, in company's Q3 RNS:

"In addition, we continue to monitor the FCA listing regime review in respect of the move to the Premium segment, with our preparation and focus on the implementation of the outcome when the conclusion is announced."

In THG's case it's worth noting there's nothing forcing them to wait for the rule change, with golden share gone they could upgrade to a premium listing whenever they like.

One thing they are obligated to update us on is the various salaries.

Burrows see his total pay leap 18% to £588,000, on top of the various warrants he's awarded.

Burrows daughter is employed as a part time "Social Media Specialist" earning £55,000.

Chair Matthew Wakefield's company was awarded broker position and paid commission in connection with the placings of £388,000.

This is all before the period where we get on to the governance concerns of another board member offloading shares in Q4 last year. I'm sure there are more skeletons lurking in this report but that's some of the stuff I've picked out for now.

Agree with that, whichever way you look at it this represents top value. Today's update wasn't exactly spectacular so pleasantly surprised to see perky price action today, probably a reflection of just how much bad news is priced in, so if market is expecting them to crash the car and they don't that means upside.

By now it seems market has more than baked in the headwinds like decline of active vs passive, UK equities sentiment being at all time lows and retail indifference to investing when interest rates so high. Glimmers of change in any one of those would be next catalyst, and there's a sense they can't get much worse.

Hmm you tried to slate me for posting some Mara news here a little while ago, now you're posting about being invested in another ticker where one of the largest holdings is... Mara.

The revenue requirement of the covenant is on a trailing 4 quarter basis, up to including Q1 totalling $22.5m. They didn't report Q2 23 revenue separately which would be necessary to add to the Q3+Q4 numbers they did provide to see where they're up to.

Given we're already more than half way through the quarter and RNS today assumption has to be they're not at risk of a revenue related breach as early as Q1 fwiw. If anything the minimum cash component of the covenant arguably more in play. Where it gets dicey is that revenue requirement increasing dramatically as the year goes on.

A healthy dose of scepticism when it comes to micro caps is a very rational approach

Going long on US natural gas could be a decent miner hedge, as it goes up ultimately feeds through to prices miners pay for energy. I'm in that trade, but to be honest not being clever by way of a hedging strategy, more based on nat gas being so totally bombed out looks set to retrace.

ETF flows still neutral, definitely not seeing net btc outflows, if only following usd it only looks that way because of btc/usd fall. Today nvda earnings will influence miner sentiment much more than etfs.

Halving definitely wildcard right now and potential saviour. Leading up to it expecting some decent fomo from news cycle, though sell the news gang are dominant right now plus usually a damp squib so expecting retrace on/around the date. Then we continue regular cycle leading up to ATH later on this year or early 25.